Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray

Russ Fisher Posted On February 9, 2023

Hey everybody! And welcome back to another episode of Dynasty Trading Post! We are going to start this episode with a quick game.

Question one: What footwear do you wear in the summer when going to the beach/pool? Answer: Flip-flop.

Question two: What breakfast carbohydrate has little pools to collect your syrup? Answer: That’s right! Waffle.

Question three: What is a name for the ride in a playground where two children ride on opposite ends of a plank balanced in the middle so that one end goes up as the other goes down? Answer: See saw is one name but the answer we are looking for here is teeter-totter!

Time for the bonus question: What do these answers all have in common? Answer: They all perfectly describe my feelings toward…

Kyler Murray, QB ARI

… and his dynasty value throughout his career.

Before the 2019 NFL Draft, we were worried Murray would decide to play baseball. Ultimately, the Cardinals decided to draft him and discard their former first-round quarterback Josh Rosen. During every season there are stretches where we see the upside of the QB1 and some stretches where he looks like a solid high-end QB2. Unfortunately, there also seem to be a few games each season that he will miss the game or play at a lower level due to injury. Before tearing his ACL in week 14, Murray was QB11 in total points and QB6 in points per game since he missed two games a few weeks earlier in the season.

The defining detail that will let me know how I feel about a player in dynasty is their value. First, we will look at draft value. The above-listed issues don’t seem like a big deal if you are taking that player in the second or third round of startup drafts but if you are drafting them top five, they feel like a very big concern. In DLF January Superflex ADP, Murray is QB10 with an ADP of 13.5.

The same goes with trade value. Sending the 1.01 or the 1.03 will definitely change how you feel about the above range of outcomes. As of right now, the 1.01 appears to be Bijan Robinson who definitely has the chance to be drafted in the first round of dynasty startups. It seems like you will be landing the QB2 of this class at the 1.03. There is a big range of value between those two picks and the level of expectation you have on your newly traded for quarterback will change depending on which of those picks you send.

It is time to turn to the DLF Trade Finder and DLF Trade Analyzer to find out how we should feel about Murray’s value.

There were multiple variations of this trade so I tried to enter a generic version into the Analyzer.

word image 1439526 1

Kyler Murray and a third for a mid to late 2023 first, 2023 second, and either a low-end player or another second. Any way you want to try and put a version of this together, I think the answer is easily our main man’s side. This trade is the equivalent of trading a top-six QB in points per game for maybe the QB3 in a rookie draft. Like I so cleverly showed at the beginning of this article that my feelings about Murray can fluctuate given whether the current month ends in a “Y”, this is such an amazing price that there is almost no risk in making the move to Kyler Murray.

There was actually more than one trade like this as well. The Murray to Russell Wilson downgrade seems to be a popular one.

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At least I can see the allure of the other side here. Wilson is coming off the worst year of his career but will now have Sean Payton as a head coach, plus you get two shiny new wide receiver toys in George Pickens and Kadarius Toney. I haven’t brought it up in this article yet but we also have to take into account that the Cardinals will have a different quarterback behind center for the first two months of the 2023 season while Murray recovers from his torn ACL.

The question for each of us is: does his current price reflect the injury and time he will miss already or is that a deduction you feel you have to make? If you think this value reflects his injury, which I think it does, then I side with our guy here. Three-for-one trades should lean heavily on the three-player side. Compiled value from three players doesn’t equal the value of one stud player even if the analyzer has the numbers almost identical. When you bring in these specific players, you are aging ten years at the QB position and bringing in two wide receivers who have a lot more hype than production behind their value. This trade could too easily blow up in your face and hurt your team.

I wish I could say that I scrolled through the Trade Finder and found some recent trades that valued Murray like the quarterback who has finished top seven in points per game in every season of his career but honestly, I didn’t see any. It appears right now we are on the part of the roller coaster where we just hit the bottom of a big drop and we are starting to climb our way back up. At these prices it feels like acquiring Murray could be a steal and an instant win the second he steps foot on the field again. Or, if you are like me and have a trading problem, an instant win will come even earlier when those treadmill and ladder drill videos start showing up and they create hype for a healthy Murray to start raising his value so he can be traded away for more than you sent for him.

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Russ Fisher

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Russ likes to trade and Russ likes to talk. He pulls them both together into many dynasty/trade related podcasts. He has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and dynasty for 5. He spends too much time on Twitter and is always around to talk trades whenever you need!