Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Patrick Mahomes’ Trade Value
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via Twitter, Discord,(if you haven’t joined our Discord now is a great time to do so), or the old-fashioned way (via email).
It doesn’t matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and I’ll answer them every week.
Hey world it's Friday. I need questions for the @DLFootball mailbag! Ask a question, and get your question answered in the next edition!!!!!!!!!
— Shanesays (@ShaneIsTheWorst) February 4, 2023
Is there any package that could pry Patrick Mahomes from your roster?
I won back to back championships and have sold a majority of my starters trying to get younger, and someone asked about getting Patrick Mahomes from me.
What would it take, in draft capital, to get you to trade away Mahomes?
— Richard Sickels (@gingerbe3rdman) February 4, 2023
Just to set the baseline of Mahomes’ value, we must take a look at a few of the tools available to you as a DLF subscriber. He is ranked first overall in our most recent superflex rankings, he was drafted second overall as the QB2 in January mock drafts, and he is the singular most valuable trade asset in superflex leagues. Now that we’ve established that, let’s take a look at what he’s fetched on the open market recently.
Using the Dynasty Trade Finder app, we can see several recent trades involving Mahomes in superflex/2QB formats.
The scoring below – 4-point passing touchdowns – makes this deal more palpable than most I’ve seen including Mahomes since the format enhances Deshaun Watson’s worth since he has higher rushing upside. But it’s a start nine league, and I don’t know that Treylon Burks is someone I want to start in this shallow of a league, but his worth over Jakobi Meyers is significant enough to matter here. The 2024 first is obviously what the team trading away Mahomes is hoping makes up the difference between him and Watson.
Running this deal through our Trade Analyzer finds this deal to be nearly even, though it values Burks at a much higher rate than I do. I’m still especially high on Watson and have him in the tier right below Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen, and the addition of the 24 first is enough for me to make this deal. Considering that the trade analyzer is based on real market value of players and the market is high on Burks, I would look to flip him immediately after this deal went through.
While the deal above is well within the range I find acceptable, the trade below is a hard pass. If you’re trading away Mahomes you must, absolutely must get another top-ten quarterback as part of the package. Specific to the initial question, if you don’t get back another elite quarterback in a deal for Mahomes, you need to get back four first-round rookie draft picks, and every one of those picks needs to project as a top-five rookie pick. The below deal accomplishes neither of those things, including a WR2 on the Mahomes side.
Hey, it’s a question from a fellow Betspertian from the 4for4 side of the family:
What type of offer would it take to trade for Alexander Mattison?
— Sal (@SalPal2) February 4, 2023
I promise you I’m not trying to be a company shill this week, but this question forces me to utilize the DLF tools again, specifically the Player Splits app. Alexander Mattison has been the backup in Minnesota for the past four seasons, and he’s had a handful of games when he’s had a chance to carry the load when Dalvin Cook was unable to play.
A couple of things pop off the chart above, one is that Mattison is rarely used when Cook is healthy, with 6.5 opportunities (rushing attempts and targets) per game. When Cook has been unable to go, Mattison has been treated as a bell cow, with 24.9 opportunities per game equating to 20.4 points per game. Mattison has been used as a receiving option when given the starting role, which buttresses the argument that he is a three-down back.
If you only based his value on his production when given an opportunity, I could see paying upwards of a rookie 2.01 or better to acquire him, as he enters free agency with the hope of finding a starting role for another team. But it has to be noted this is a stacked running back free agency class. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, and Kareem Hunt highlight the possible options. The NFL Draft is also going to have a huge contingent of high-end prospects as well, so it’s likely Mattison continues to find himself in a backup role, and at best a committee. With that in mind, I’d be willing to pay a mid-late second-round rookie pick, but not much more than that.
Deals like the two below are fine. Giving up a random smattering of low-end assets to acquire Mattison in the first trade, and the rookie 2.10 in the second deal are both low-risk/high-reward deals that I co-sign.
Oh, it’s a trifecta of questions!
Who are two older running backs in Dynasty that you are trying to target on a contending roster?
What 2023 rookie pick are you willing to move straight up for a Random 24 1st?
Who’s the best Batman?
— Kevin (@Daboys_22) February 4, 2023
The best Batman is Christian Bale, and it’s not even particularly close. The second best was Michael Keaton, and I’m willing to move Robert Pattinson up in my rankings if he continues to build on his strong rookie production shown in his inaugural caped crusader go-round.
To help determine when I would start trading 2023 rookie picks for random 2024 rookie picks, I’ve enlisted the assistance of Dynasty Rookie Superflex rankings.
Remember, we still have the NFL Combine, Pro Days, and the actual NFL Draft so a lot of things will change between now and your upcoming drafts, but as of today, I would move anything after 1.08 this year for a random 2024 pick. First, the odds that the 2024 pick you get back is earlier than the 1.08 are significant, and the 1.08 is also where things start to feel very dicey. Without the NFL Combine measurements, and NFL Draft capital attached to several players in this class, I’m having a hard time envisioning what they could be. Anthony Richardson, Quentin Johnston, and Will Levis are three players ranked in DLF’s top nine who I have concerns about. By the same token, I expect Zach Evans, Michael Mayer, Sean Tucker, and Zach Charbonnet to improve their stock between the combine and draft.
I usually fade older running backs, but with the influx of rookie running backs joining the league this year, I believe there will be a further devaluing of “older” running backs, presenting an excellent buying window for a few of these players.
My first target is Derrick Henry. Henry is 29 years old, well past the age apex for running back production, but he continues to produce. Last year, though his scoring “dipped” to 18.9 PPG which can be partly attributed to playing on an offense that ranked 28th in points per game, and 30th in yards per game; Henry still finished as the RB4 overall. He also set career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while still rushing for his customary 1,500+ yards. Henry’s cost is digestible as well. He can be acquired for a single 2023 first, or as you can see below, for second-round rookie picks.
My second target is any running back over the age of 25 who has produced and the market is low on. Names to keep in mind are David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, James Conner, and Leonard Fournette. Take advantage of the community’s (worthy) fear of aged running backs and get these players at a discount.
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