NFL Expiring Contracts: Introduction

Derrick Henry

Corey Spala Posted On February 2, 2023

Expiring player contracts bring a unique edge to dynasty football. If you think one or two steps ahead, or in this case, one or two years ahead, you may find valuable information. A player with an expiring contract after the 2023 season is an asset to be evaluated immediately.

Questions to be answered surrounding these players are: Is this player elite or serviceable? Does their respective team have cap space and/or a history of spending money? Will there be environmental changes such as a head coaching change?

This article series will detail expiring contracts following the 2023 season. This is the first article addressing potential 2024 free agents before four more focusing on each position.

Introduction

This article will detail potential free agents in 2024. Currently, we are in the 2023 off-season. We have no way to predict if one of these free agents will get a contract extension or one will get injured. Anticipating future movement goes hand-in-hand with the player’s value.

What I mean is, regardless of immediate production, you may find yourself with an asset with a looming value boom. An example would be identifying an aging running back ready to hit the market. For example, David Montgomery for this off-season. Hypothetically if he re-signs with the Bears, he stays within his current value. If he signs with the Kansas City Chiefs, his value booms.

Now you benefit from the production or can trade the inflated value for future draft picks or young proven talent. This is essentially gambling. You are making a calculated maneuver to try and position yourself for 1) immediate production and 2) future value movement – hopefully upwards, not downwards.

2024 Free Agents

I have charted notable 2024 free agents. Playing dynasty, we fall in love with players, and we want to see these players succeed.

It should be noted not every impending free agent will be one. I think the consensus would say Justin Jefferson and Joe Burrow will receive contract extensions. Additionally, the current 2023 free agents may sign one-year contracts (e.g., JuJu Smith-Schuster 2022) which would mean they would be a 2024 free agent. If you would like to see current free agents, click here.

Remember, this article series will be identifying players who are FAs in two seasons. This article series is not referencing 2023 values or production.

Discussion

It is important to note the majority of the impending free agents will not be free agents. They will receive an extension or get the franchise tag. I think it is safe to assume the top five at each position will. The above chart is not in any particular order, just how the 2024 free agent tracker had them listed.

When looking forward to expiring contracts, it is crucial to determine certain aspects surrounding a player. Variables such as:

Age
- Straight forward, if they are approaching their 30s, they may be heading towards a decline.
Skillset
- A good player is good. A bad player is bad. When there are multiple years of data, we can confidently assume one or the other.
Stability
- Has the player assumed a role on the offense?
Environment
- Is the team heading to a rebuild? Will the team fire the coaching staff?

Play dynasty like chess, not checkers. Be a few steps ahead in multiple aspects of the game. Expiring contracts are one individual aspect. Identifying future movement and being a head is a unique edge to attempt to exploit. I say attempt because we have zero idea what may happen in the future.

It simply is an educated guess based on multiple variables. It is plausible to make a wrong bet on a player. That is okay. We need to be okay with losing here and there, as long as you are winning more – and winning substantially. Expiring contract aside, an example would be, identifying a rookie sleeper in your drafts. You may have reached in the second round, but if that pick hits, you have struck gold.

If you are able to identify Tyler Boyd, the WR3 for the Bengals, and his expiring contract, you might strike gold. You may want to snag him, even if he is a bit on the older side (28). Pair the fact he is teammates with Tee Higgins, who is also due a contract. One can re-sign with the Bengals and the other can walk to a team with an immediate need.

Make sure to place an educated bet.

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Corey Spala

Corey studies human behavior and analyzes data for a living and applies it to dynasty football. He utilizes a blend of data and humor to guide you through articles and/or videos. Shoutout to the process and shoutout to (hopefully) helping you in your dynasty leagues.