Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
As we proceed through the NFL playoffs and into the dynasty off-season, reflection on the past year and constantly finding a market pulse on the current player landscape is crucial. Information is constantly changing and the dynasty values will move in lock-step with it. This series will focus on that market pulse by highlighting players at each spot. Here are four wide receivers to take note of before the Super Bowl:
Drake London, WR ATL – Buy
There is no doubt that London had a fantastic rookie season. Unfortunately, many are only looking at his fantasy numbers and they might not appreciate it. After all, he finished outside of the top 40 in points per game and was seemingly a weekly disappointment for most managers who had him in a lineup. However, looking deeper, you see a player with an elite profile (former first-round pick) and one who finished in the top five in target share and sixth in targets per route run. Furthermore, he finished in the top 25 in yards per route run and air yards share. He was the complete package, joining only 12 other players to end the year with these marks. Address the quarterback position with someone more efficient and London is the best buy in dynasty.
The Move – Do not get it wrong, he will not be cheap. However, he is arguably as good or better than Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson and belongs in the mix with Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or anyone else you might put in the mix as a “tier two” wide receiver. Do what it takes to acquire him and find potential pivots at the position to get it done.
George Pickens, WR PIT – Sell
It is difficult to imagine things going much worse for a player who the community sees in such a bright light. At WR20 in the latest ADP, Pickens ranked 56th in market share among players with at least 400 snaps and 250 routes run. For instance, this ranked below fellow rookie Romeo Doubs. Arguably, the excuse can be that he earned an immediate starter role and was forced into a large amount of playing time in a bad situation. However, the same situation (with an average quarterback and bad offensive coordinator) remains the same going into 2023. It is not that Pickens cannot be good, but at this moment, he is vastly overvalued.
The Move – This one is pretty simple. I would take any first-round pick in superflex. This includes a 2024 first-round pick (also ask for a filler player) or any 2023 first-round pick that allows me to reroll for another wide receiver. The true leverage deal is getting the pick and another small piece, giving yourself multiple shots at an asset. Regardless, if you are overexposed on Pickens, get on those deals.
Marquise Brown, WR ARI – Hold
Brown has long been one of the most underrated wide receivers in dynasty. He currently sits at WR24 in the latest ADP, down six spots from his WR18 mark in December. Despite the fall, this still marks the near peak for his career value and after four seasons in the NFL, he deserves it. Brown finished number 22 in market share for the 2022 season and ranked seventh in air yards share. His only number outside of the top 24 was yards per route run, which historically speaks more about the play of a quarterback than it is individually owned by the wide receiver. Ultimately, Brown figures to be the top option in Arizona next season, has a history of being able to earn targets (23 percent in his career) and should be eligible for a big extension this off-season. Value him appropriately.
The Move – I dislike the advice to “hold” but in cases of wide receivers who have been around and are no longer the sexy market buys, the key is making sure you stay put with the ones you know are very good. Brown fits this mold. I am assuming many who see this path are already heavily exposed to Brown and if so, the only move is to hold, or swap him out for another similar profile such as DJ Moore or Diontae Johnson. All three of these players lack the name cache but have a history of usage equivalent (or better) than their market cost.
Allen Lazard, WR GB – Add (or Buy)
This one may come as a surprise. After all, Lazard was largely overvalued all season (now WR56 in the January 2023 ADP) and struggled to produce (WR33 in PPG in 2022) with Aaron Rodgers. How could he possibly end up being a player I want? Arguably, this is the reason to target Lazard as he exits Green Bay and gets cast off as a player who can only go down from here. On the contrary, Lazard ranked in the top 32 in target share, targets per route run, yards per route run and air yards share. Impressive marks for a player many will be out on… for now.
The Move – Simply, add him where you can in deals. I would try to buy him for a third-round pick if you are short on threshold wide receivers. If you are pivoting at another position, see if you can get him thrown into the trade. Ultimately, the move is to add your exposure between now and free agency as his name continues to slide under the radar.
Conclusion – The market is going crazy for wide receivers. Crunch the data, examine your roster construction and look for values. Use the market craze for the young and hyped receivers to work your best value-based trades. Be wary of your exposure and be aware of the flat tiers at the position. Do not overpay for rookie hype or excessive youth.
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