Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Early 1st

It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.

In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.

Historical Consensus 1-4 picks

2022

• 1.01 – Breece Hall, RB NYJ
• 1.02 – Drake London, WR ATL
• 1.03 – Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
• 1.04 – Kenneth Walker, RB SEA

2021

• 1.01 – Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
• 1.02 – Trey Lance, QB SF
• 1.03 – Justin Fields, QB CHI
• 1.04 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN

2020

• 1.01 – Joe Burrow, QB CIN
• 1.02 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
• 1.03 – Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
• 1.04 – Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA

The top of rookie drafts is littered with elite assets. Almost regardless of the class, having a selection in the first four picks has a very high chance of netting you a great dynasty asset.

There are misses though and the one that really sticks out here is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Edwards-Helaire was a lesson for the dynasty community to not draft situation over talent. Jonathan Taylor was long seen as the best running back in the class but when Edwards-Helaire was selected at the end of the first round in the NFL Draft by the Chiefs, people became infatuated with him, which then bumped him up in dynasty rookie drafts.

It’s important to not overvalue a prospect’s landing spot as situations can change at any given moment. Also, the most talented players more often than not make situations work for them so you really just want to always be drafting the most talented players.

2023 Potential Options

• Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
• Bryce Young, QB Alabama
• CJ Stroud, QB Ohio State
• Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Ohio State
• Quentin Johnston, WR TCU
• Jordan Addison, WR USC

The gem and almost certainly the consensus 1.01 of this class is Bijan Robinson. For a lot of people, he will be their dynasty RB1 the moment he’s drafted and it would make sense to do so. He’s the complete package with no real knocks to speak of.

After Robinson, we have Bryce Young and CJ Stroud who are both highly thought of quarterback prospects – always worth a high pick. Additionally, there is Jahmyr Gibbs who is in a weird position of being a very good prospect possessing elite receiving skill for a running back but clearly behind Robinson while being clearly ahead of all other running back prospects. He’s completely worthy of a top-four pick, just not ahead of Robinson.

Finally, we have the three main contenders for the WR1 of the class, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison, where there’s a little bit of a “choose your flavor”. They are currently back-to-back-to-back in our dynasty rookie draft rankings. Smith-Njigba is the technician who dominated as a true sophomore but missed almost all of 2022 to an injury. Johnston is the athletic monster of the class who will attract people with his potential. Addison is the undersized wide receiver who always produces. It wouldn’t surprise me if one of these wide receivers found themselves consistently drafted in the top four if one of them wows people at the combine or their pro day.

Trade Value

Knowing which prospects are worthy of being selected with these dynasty rookie picks is only half of the battle. It’s also important to know what these picks are worth on the trade market. This will help you to find worthwhile trades if you find yourself not as interested in the prospects available when you’re up to pick or what it will take to trade up for a pick to get a prospect you really like. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.

1.01

• AJ Brown, WR PHI
• CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
• Dak Prescott, QB DAL
• Jonathan Taylor, RB IND

1.02

• Tee Higgins, WR CIN
• Travis Etienne, RB JAC
• Deshaun Watson, QB CLE
• Stefon Diggs, WR BUF

1.03

• Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
• DK Metcalf, WR SEA
• Davante Adams, WR LV
• Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

1.04

• D’Andre Swift, RB DET
• Travis Kelce, TE KC
• Drake London, WR ATL
• Trey Lance, QB SF

As you can see, these picks are quite expensive and the 1.01 is particularly valuable. By the time dynasty rookie drafts are here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 1.01 fetch even more as the rookie fever continues to build. Often, as the rookie drafts approach, dynasty players will be salivating at the chance to draft their favorite prospect and be willing to overpay for a top draft pick. Everyone can get wrapped up in the allure of the incoming rookies at times but we can’t forget about the proven assets.

A sometimes-forgotten factor is that while rookie draft picks have insulated value leading up to rookie drafts, once you’re on the clock those picks carry risk. The 1.02 and Tee Higgins may be close in market value but Higgins is a proven asset with minimal risk. Sometimes the grass isn’t always greener on the other side so proceed with caution if you’re looking to buy into the top rookie picks.

Dynasty Recommendations

1.01 – For me it’s pretty simple, I’m taking Bijan Robinson unless someone sends me a godfather type of deal. To put it in perspective, I currently have Robinson as an end-of-first/beginning-of-the-second-round startup draft pick in superflex formats. If you do want to entertain trading away the 1.01, wait until close to the rookie draft as there’s potential for the value of the pick to grow even more.

1.02 – There’s a clear tier break for me between the 1.01 and the 1.02 and this is where I’m much more likely to listen to offers for the pick. As I mentioned above, I’m more likely to want a proven elite asset like Tee Higgins over the 1.02. If no one is offering you that much for the pick or you just prefer to take the rookie, it’s solidly between Bryce Young and CJ Stroud for me. I think they’re very close as prospects and plan to use draft capital and landing spot as the tiebreaker. Unless one of them happens to fall in the NFL Draft, I’m sure there won’t actually be a consensus between these two.

1.03 – This is basically the same pick as 1.02 to me and I’m approaching it in the same way. The main difference here is that I’ll just take whichever quarterback isn’t taken at the 1.02 in dynasty rookie drafts. If neither quarterback happens to get drafted then you get to take your preference.

1.04 – For most people, this pick currently comes down to Jahmyr Gibbs or your favorite wide receiver in the class, Jaxon Smith-Njigba for me. I’ll be going with Smith-Njigba as I believe he is clearly the WR1 in the class. He has elite spatial awareness, creates a lot of separation on his routes, and is exciting after the catch. People will be scared by his injury that kept him out basically the entire year but I think it was pretty clear he was just protecting his body so he could be ready for the draft.