Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Chris Olave side or CeeDee Lamb side?
Welcome back to the Dynasty Fantasy Football mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via Twitter, Discord, or the old-fashioned way (via email). It doesn’t matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and I’ll answer them every week. Nothing is off limits and there is no such thing as a stupid question, so fire away!
It's Friday. I need your Dynasty Fantasy Football question for this weeks @DLFootball 📬. What you got dynasty world??
— Shanesays (@ShaneIsTheWorst) January 27, 2023
Let’s tackle a trade question to kick this week off:
Pick 1.10 and olave for ceedee? Feels like I’m over paying but could be tasty 😋
— Roberto (@rctower) January 27, 2023
This is a hard pass for me. Chris Olave and CeeDee Lamb are in a similar tier for me so adding a pick to Olave to get Lamb is an overpay. But don’t just take my word for it, let’s use the Dynasty Trade Analyzer app to get an unbiased opinion.
Though the analyzer doesn’t agree with my assessment of Lamb and Olave being in the same tier, Lamb is valued at 910.5 points while Olave is valued at 700. The addition of the 1.10 on the Olave side makes that side more valuable. I think Olave is undervalued based on his performance in his rookie season. He finished as the WR25 as a rookie, averaging 13.2 PPG. Since the 2015 season – eight seasons – only 14 rookie wide receivers have hit that mark. And as you can see by the list below, it’s an exclusive club filled with multiple WR1s.
Lamb was one of those 14 receivers to hit that mark in his rookie season, and he is coming off his best fantasy season (WR7), and he’s ranked as the WR5 in DLF rankings. Based on Olave’s cohorts, I expect him to be easily in the top ten in dynasty rankings this time next year. He’s currently ranked 11th. The addition of the 1.10 allows you the flexibility to improve the rest of your roster, with many viable options including using it to tier up at another WR slot, or flipping it for a 2024 first, which has a high probability of being a better pick than the 1.10.
Is Danny Dimes for real?
Do you believe in Daniel Jones beyond this year? Just acquired him in SF for 1.12 and 3.12 & felt like daylight robbery for the Vanilla Vick
— Phil Savory (@philsavory) January 27, 2023
The hiring of Brian Daboll as the Giants head coach and Mike Kafka as the offensive coordinator seemed to unlock Daniel Jones in 2022. He set a career high in fantasy points per game (18.4) finishing as a top-ten quarterback in fantasy for the first time in his career. A good bit of this fantasy production relied on career-high 708 rushing yards, and career-high seven rushing touchdowns. Though it’s fair to expect some regression in both categories – as his previous career high in rushing yards was 423 yards and he hadn’t run for any more than two touchdowns prior to 2022 – it’s important to understand that Jones had been a high-end QB2 in two of his other three seasons. He was the QB17 in 2021, and the QB17 in his rookie season in 2029.
Assuming Jones returns to the Giants, it’s a fair expectation that he will be at worst a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 going forward. Is that worth a rookie 1.12? Let’s take a look at who you could have drafted at the 1.12 in recent rookie drafts. In rookie superflex drafts in 2022, you could have drafted James Cook. In 2021 that pick would have been Mac Jones (who has finished as the QB23 and QB27 in his two seasons), and Jalen Reagor in 2020. Considering the range of outcomes for Jones, I strongly prefer him over the 1.12 2023 rookie pick.
What wide receivers and tight ends could be a value?
Who are the best values to trade for currently at WR and TE who could return huge value??
— Joe the FANTASY GURU. (@JosephLu32) January 27, 2023
My favorite player to buy at the wide receiver position is Michael Pittman. He is coming off two straight seasons where he exceeded 25.6% target share. Though his target shares have been impressive, ranking 17th in 2022, the quarterback play he received last year was objectively terrible. Matt Ryan ranked 23rd in Expected Points Added per dropback (EPA), though Carson Wentz did rank 11th in 2021. Pittman was only able to convert his elite target share into a WR21 season last year due to this poor play.
With Indianapolis almost duty-bound to find a long-term answer to their quarterback situation, I expect more efficient quarterback play to lead to better fantasy scoring results for Pittaman. Targets are earned, and Pittman has shown to be very good at earning those targets. The trade market, based on the Dynasty Trade Finder app, is also depressed, making him an even more intriguing buy.
In the trade above, Pittman was acquired for a change-of-pace running back, a rookie wide receiver, and a second-round pick. That is a smash accept if you are trying to acquire Pittman.
The trade below is also a smash accept. Trading for a receiver who’s been able to produce as a WR2, despite poor quarterback play, for the cost of Curtis Samuel and a fifth-round rookie pick is a steal.
At tight end, I’m eying David Njoku, who is currently the TE12 in the most recent DLF mock drafts. He turned in his best fantasy season last year, finishing as the TE8, leaving a good amount of cushion from his expected floor and his ADP.
I’m also looking to buy Mike Gesicki. He is the TE24 after ending his 2022 year as the TE29. Gesicki’s target share was obviously affected by the addition of Tyreek Hill, who saw the second-highest target share among wide receivers last year with a 31.6% target rate. Jaylen Waddle saw a 21.6% share, so between him and Hill, they monopolized over 53% of all Dolphin targets in 2022. This caused Gesicki’s target share to drop below 10% in 2022 a year after his 18.6% ranked ninth at the tight end position. Gesicki is a free agent, and he’s going to be able to find a situation better suited to his skill set as a receiving weapon, allowing him to improve on his career low 45.4% snap share in 2022. He’s had TE8, TE13 and TE14 seasons showing his value when he’s involved in the offensive game plan.
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