Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
As we proceed through the NFL playoffs and into the dynasty off-season, reflection on the past year and constantly finding a market pulse on the current player landscape is crucial. Information is constantly changing and the dynasty values will move in lock-step with it. This series will focus on that market pulse by highlighting players at each spot. Here are four running backs to keep an eye on:
James Conner, RB ARI – Buy
Did you know that Conner finished the season as a top-ten running back? This may surprise many as the 27-year-old continues to outpace his market cost with fantasy production above the median average for his position. As the Cardinals transition to a new offense, Conner will likely play out his final year under contract in Arizona and do so with another large workload. At RB33 in the latest ADP, embrace the off-season fade on a player on the back end of his career.
The Move – I would pay a second-round pick. I would try to pivot down off a similar risk such as Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon or Derrick Henry if I can get a plus. All of these players represent short-term bets and should occupy a specific slot within your roster construction. It is a fantastic spot to add value and convert other player shares to Conner at the lowest common denominator.
D’Andre Swift, RB DET – Sell
The time has come to face reality. Swift is likely facing a future that will live on overall passing game efficiency to show any upside as a starter on your roster. The Lions do not seem willing to treat him with any level of trust when it comes to handling a workload as they did not give a single running back more than 75 percent of snaps in a single game. Only twice did they give a single player more than 60 percent of the usage. This cements that Swift will always share a role with others and it makes his RB9 price in the latest ADP vastly overshot.
The Move – This one is pretty simple. I would take any first-round pick in superflex. Any trade involving a pivot down from Swift (add a second-round pick) and getting a lesser running back and a first-round pick is optimal. This is not to say Swift is not worthing rostering but there are value-added ways you can move from him and not miss a beat.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN – Hold
Twenty-four or more touches is what Henry averages per game over the past four seasons. Despite being 29 years old and in a Tennessee situation with a massive number of question marks going into the 2023 off-season, one thing is for certain; there is gas left in the tank. At this point, the manager with Henry sees the value in him as one of the premier bell cows in the sport. The rest of the league sees complete uncertainty along with a blown engine just around the corner. There is nothing to do at this point but ride it out until it no longer functions.
The Move – The hold list is always tough. How can there not be a price? I will humor you and state that on rosters lacking a hammer and with future picks to supplement, I am fine buying Henry for a single pick valued in the first-round range. I would sell for the same in a league with an overload of running backs that I am looking to liquidate. The priority would be to shift your exposure to RB-heavy formats (point per carry) and move away in lesser-desired formats (PPR only and start one). Align your exposure with the format and ride it.
Ronald Jones, RB KC – Add
I will be transparent. Finding a legit need to do anything but #liquidate running backs at this point in the off-season is difficult. Use the next few months to take advantage of players who will be cut candidates or draft replacements because of no production in recent memory. Jones is a player with enough profile and capital to get another chance. Unfortunately, the attrition did not happen in Kansas City and he was never needed.
The Move – Simply, add him where you can. Rosters of at least 30 should not let him sit on waivers until the massive wave of running back movement happens in March/April. Reassess afterwards as to what you want to do with the roster spot.
Conclusion – The market is often down this time of year at RB. Expect a lot of change to take place in March (free agency and April (NFL Draft) but until then, focus on roster construction alignment at this position and make minimal major commitment until you have to.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
