Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Cooper Kupp and Aging WRs
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the pre-eminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. This year I’ll be answering questions from you via Twitter, Discord (if you haven’t joined our Discord now is a great time to do so), or the old-fashioned way (via email).
It doesn’t matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and I’ll answer them every week. Nothing is off limits and there is no such thing as a stupid question, so fire away!
First up this week is talking about old people, one of my favorite past times:
Who are some WRs who are about to fall off a cliff?
— peter randall (@PeterPeterra) January 20, 2023
The age cliff for elite fantasy football production for wide receivers is typically between ages 30-32. Though that range depends on what qualifiers are used, it’s safe to say that any elite production you receive from a wide receiver past the age of 32 should be considered a bonus. One quick note: this isn’t a discussion of value, which is a different thing. If you’ve played dynasty for any time, I’m sure you’ve noticed that wide receivers past the age of 28 tend to get sideways glances when included in trade offers.
Based on what we know of age cliffs, looking at the elite scoring wide receivers from 2022, there are a few prime candidates to fall off the cliff. Cooper Kupp is coming off a season in which he averaged 22.4 points per game, which was the highest for wide receivers in fantasy last year if you don’t disqualify him for only playing in nine games. Kupp turns 30 in June, which is old for a football player, and if Matthew Stafford continues his decline and the Rams don’t get their offensive line fixed Kupp could see a significant fall in scoring next year.
Davante Adams, who just turned 30 this past December, is another wide receiver I’m keeping an eye on. He had his worst per-game scoring (19.7 PPG) season since the 2019 season, and he’ll have to break in another new quarterback in 2023 who is not guaranteed to be an upgrade to Derek Carr. And though his target share was elite in 2022, ranking first with a 32.6% share, his fantasy points per target fell to 1.86, which ranked 29th among wide receivers. If Adams’s volume were to fall to just good and not elite and his efficiency fails to improve, he could see his scoring fall out of the top 12 in 2023.
Next up we have a rookie draft/trade question:
I’ve got the 1.05 1.06 1.09 and 2.05. 2 number 1s next year. I want a top 3 pick this year to secure either stroud or young. What are you trading to get that? Also have javonte and gabe Davis I’m willing to move off of.
— austin (@legendofacn) January 20, 2023
Moving up to the 1.03 from 1.05 to ensure you secure either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud is a move I would make every day of the week. Though we’re still several months out from the NFL Draft, it appears that Young and Stroud will be the consensus first two quarterbacks off the board in rookie drafts this year. Even if Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are also drafted in the top ten, both players have too many questions for me to feel secure drafting them at 1.03.
One caveat: If possible, look to see if you can use this draft capital to trade for an already established top-ten quarterback. Try to use the 1.05 and the 1.09 for back-end top ten QBs, or the 1.05 and 1.06 and possibly a 2024 pick for one of the truly elite QBs, like Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, etc. You can also use Javonte Williams or Gabriel Davis as a sweetener to get a deal done.
When it comes to superflex leagues, there’s almost no such thing as overpaying when it comes to acquiring an elite QB. With five first-round rookie draft picks over the next two years, you should be aggressively pursuing elite QBs in trades. Don’t wait for these offers to come to you.
First up I would start with the 1.09 and the 2.05. I don’t think that will be accepted, but it’s not insulting and it should be enough to start the conversation. If that doesn’t work, I would try the same deal with the 1.06, and if that fails with the 1.05. I’d also be willing to give up the 1.09, and Williams, if push came to shove as high as the 1.05 and Williams for the 1.03.
Let’s talk another trade:
Need some RB hell and QBs are deep. Got Dan Jones, Lance, Fields, Carr. Also have the 1.02. Would you give Fields and a 24 2nd for Dak and Rhamondre?
— sauce boss (@saucylion) January 20, 2023
Just eyeballing this deal, Dak Prescott and Rhamondre Stevenson for Justin Fields and a 2024 second, it appears fair on both sides but I do lean towards the Prescott side, mostly out of my fear of going all in on Fields. While he just finished as the QB5 with 20.5 PPG, compared to Prescott’s 17.8 PPG, he was only able to surpass 200 passing yards in two of 15 games in 2022. Getting Stevenson, the RB10 in 2022, while giving up a second-round pick two drafts away on the side of the deal feels like a huge win as well. The quarterback room that @dynasty_dawgg has, which includes upside plays such as Trey Lance, and a solid if yet unspectacular starter in Derek Carr, seals the deal for me. I would make the deal.
But I am just a simple man, so let’s go ahead and get some more help on this deal. In case you aren’t already aware, one of the many tools at your disposal as a DLF subscriber is the Dynasty Trade Analyzer. While many of us like to scoff at the thought of using a trade calculator to help us, I am fully on board with using them when considering a deal.
The analyzer is also fully on board with this deal, and even notes that Team A should actually add more assets to this deal to make it even, with the Prescott side worth significantly more than the Fields and second side.
Though I don’t think much, if anything should be added to Team A side, I still am confident in the Prescott side of this deal.
Last and not least this week, is a look ahead to the coming months:
What events should we be looking forward to in the near future and why? (i.e. Senior Bowl, Combine, Pro Days)
— Steven (@___kozu) January 20, 2023
First on the agenda is the Senior Bowl, which will be held on February 4th. What’s usually more important than the actual game are the three days of practice leading up to the Bowl. The players in this game aren’t usually no doubt about first-round fantasy picks, but they will dot the back end of the first rounds. Recent standouts who either solidified their NFL Draft position, or improved because of their week at the Senior Bowl include Christian Watson, Mac Jones, Kadarius Toney, and Michael Carter. Keep an eye on the practice reports, and the scuttlebutt about who the NFL scouts are most impressed during Senior Bowl week.
The Shrine Bowl is also coming up, scheduled for Feb 2nd, but this is a lesser showcase event than the Senior Bowl, and there haven’t been many fantasy-relevant players to emerge this contest. James Robinson and Tyler Huntley are probably the most fantasy-relevant players since 2020 who played in the Shrine Bowl.
The most important event is the NFL Combine which kicks off on February 27th and runs through March 6th. The combine is important, but what you really want to see is if players hit certain marks. Weights, 40-times, three-cones, etc, are measuring sticks that allow us to put players into a bucket of similar performers, but remember it’s not the end all be all. Remember when DK Metcalf ran a slower 3-cone than Tom Brady and we lost our collective minds? That was fun. While it’s okay to be concerned with any of the data that comes out of the combine, if it doesn’t affect a player’s NFL Draft capital it almost doesn’t matter.
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