Monday Mocks: January Dynasty Startup ADP

Ryan McDowell Posted On January 16, 2023

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you (you guessed it), a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys and more. Obviously, I love mock drafts but not all mocks are built the same. There are varying purposes for mocks, whether you are a participant or simply an observer.

With the NFL regular season now complete, many dynasty players are already on to 2023 and that means brand new startup dynasty leagues. Understandably, most new dynasty leagues kick off in the spring or early summer, following the NFL Draft but some degenerates just can’t wait. Even though we don’t yet know how the NFL Draft or free agency periods will impact the value of players around the league, it is never too early to join (or start) a new league.

Our January dynasty ADP is nearly complete and will be found in full very soon. Until then, let’s have a look at the first few rounds of the latest ADP, focusing on a few key players. As a reminder, the 2023 rookie class is not yet included, but they will be next month.

ROUND ONE

1.01 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

1.02 Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN

1.03 AJ Brown, WR PHI

1.04 CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL

1.05 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND

1.06 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA

1.07 Christian McCaffrey, RB SF

1.08 Breece Hall, RB NYJ

1.09 Kenneth Walker, RB SEA

1.10 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET

1.11 Tyreek Hill, WR MIA

1.12 Tee Higgins, WR CIN

The first four players off the board are young receivers as we continue to see a shift away from the running back position when it comes to dynasty team building. At this point, it is difficult to argue for anyone but Jefferson, Chase and Brown as the first three players off the board.
I was surprised to see Taylor remain as the dynasty RB1 this month. Considering the multiple injuries he endured this season, along with questions about the Colts’ offense moving forward, I expected Hall to top the running back list.
We typically see veterans fall down the ranks during the off-season but, at least for now, both McCaffrey and Hill remain among the top 12. While I don’t disagree with valuing each of these elite producers highly, I am surprised at the value gap between the duo and counterparts at their respective positions. For example, other veterans of a similar age and production level fall to later rounds, with Cooper Kupp as a fifth-round pick standing out.

ROUND TWO

2.01 Saquon Barkley, RB NYG

2.02 Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

2.03 Stefon Diggs, WR BUF

2.04 Travis Etienne, RB JAX

2.05 Austin Ekeler, RB LAC

2.06 Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

2.07 Chris Olave, WR NO

2.08 DK Metcalf, WR SEA

2.09 Najee Harris, RB PIT

2.10 Davante Adams, WR LV

2.11 DeVonta Smith, WR PHI

2.12 Drake London, WR ATL

A trio of rookie receivers highlight the second round and I am actually surprised that former Ohio State teammates Wilson and Olave are not even higher in this data set. Each rank among my top-ten players overall in 1QB dynasty leagues entering the off-season.
London is the third rookie wideout, closing out the second round. Despite a frustrating season for the USC product and his Falcons teammate Pitts, both have maintained their lofty dynasty value. Pitts struggled through much of the year before suffering a season-ending injury, but he has regained the dynasty TE1 crown as dynasty managers worry about age and offense questions for Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and other top fantasy tight ends.
I was surprised to see Harris back inside the top two rounds. After a terrible start to his 2022 season, Harris fell from a consensus first-round dynasty pick to an ADP of 40 overall in November. Harris was able to bounce back with a strong second half of the season but at 21 overall, Harris is back to being overvalued.

ROUND THREE

3.01 Mark Andrews, TE BAL

3.02 D’Andre Swift, RB DET

3.03 Deebo Samuel, WR SF

3.04 Josh Allen, QB BUF

3.05 Chris Godwin, WR TB

3.06 Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

3.07 Josh Jacobs, RB LV

3.08 Nick Chubb, RB CLE

3.09 Travis Kelce, TE KC

3.10 DJ Moore, WR CAR

3.11 Michael Pittman, WR IND

3.12 Joe Mixon, RB CIN

Just a month ago, Andrews was a first-round pick in our dynasty ADP. After a strong start to the season, it all fell apart for Andrews, his quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense as a whole.
In round three, we get the first two quarterbacks off the board. Recently, I’ve been reevaluating how I value the elite quarterbacks in dynasty leagues. This comes after some discussion with Footballguys dynasty writer Adam Harstad and examining other dynasty data from around the industry. Each of these trusted sources suggested Allen and Mahomes were screaming values outside of the first round and I am starting to agree.
Jacobs enjoyed a career year for the Raiders but questions about his future as he enters free agency, has his value in limbo. This represents Jacobs’ highest dynasty value in nearly two full years.

ROUND FOUR

4.01 George Pickens, WR PIT

4.02 Treylon Burks, WR TEN

4.03 Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE

4.04 Jalen Hurts, QB PHI

4.05 Derrick Henry, RB TEN

4.06 Tony Pollard, RB DAL

4.07 Javonte Williams, RB DEN

4.08 Christian Watson, WR GB

4.09 Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF

4.10 Jameson Williams, WR DET

4.11 Marquise Brown, WR ARI

4.12 JK Dobbins, RB BAL

The fourth round includes four more rookie receivers as Pickens, Burks, Watson and Williams come off the board.
Stevenson and Pollard earned larger roles in their respective offenses this season and gained a ton of dynasty value. Both are now just outside the RB1 range, though Pollard’s value will ultimately be determined by how his free agency period progresses and if he remains in Dallas.

ROUND FIVE

5.01 Cooper Kupp, WR LAR

5.02 Dalvin Cook, RB MIN

5.03 Jahan Dotson, WR WAS

5.04 Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

5.05 Joe Burrow, QB CIN

5.06 George Kittle, TE SF

5.07 Justin Herbert, QB LAC

5.08 TJ Hockenson, TE MIN

5.09 Mike Williams, WR LAC

5.10 Diontae Johnson, WR PIT

5.11 Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

5.12 Mike Evans, WR TB

I have no idea how Kupp fell to the fifth round, but it feels at least two rounds late. If this is truly representative of Kupp’s value, he should be a priority in both drafts and trade talks.
Hockenson was dominant after the trade sending him from Detroit to the Vikings. He’s now considered a top-five dynasty tight end and could easily rise further this offseason.
Johnson and Jeudy are a pair of receivers that disappointed this season and each saw their value drop significantly. There is a real buy window for each pass-catcher for those that still believe.

Look for the full January dynasty ADP to be posted later this week and I’ll be back next week with a new mock draft.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.