Dynasty League Football


Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Which Rookies Hit?

We take a deep dive into to usefulness of target data in predicting long term fantasy success.

Chris Olave

I appreciate you sticking with this series all season. I hope you found some stuff interesting, and hopefully entertaining. Most of all I hope you won championships or at least had a good time trying.

I look forward to writing it again next year and I hope to see you in the offseason as we delve into rookie analysis and expectations for the 2023 season. However, before we let the curtain drop, let’s round it out by ranking the 2022 rookie wide receiver class.

One final reminder that I collected all weekly NFL data in a public spreadsheet you can find here. Now Let's get into it.

TLDR: Last Week

Last week I wrote about how routes can often give us important information about what a rookie is likely to do in his sophomore season. My interpretation of some of the route data is distinctly different from some of the analyses I've read and heard about before so it's worth restating.

See more in this thread:

Year two players elevate in volume. Most good players average great targets per route run (TPRR) in their first season, but players can also have high TPRR numbers because they spend less time on the field.


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Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Which Rookies Hit?
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ken conlogue
2 months ago

Great job. But no mention of system, coaching, draft picks, and competition within the position. and o yeah, QB play. Good luck selling this crap on pure data. Doesn’t work like that in the NFL. Sorry to be the Grinch, but Reality IS Fantasy. It’s good stuff to reference, but by no means reliable unless other factors are considered.

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