Welcome to the offseason! If you’ve been with us for any length of time, you know that our tag line here is “There is NO offseason!”
It was a long, winding, and, certainly interesting, year in fantasy football!
Many of you take advantage of my weekly start-sit advice during the season. That long running article series has always been my favorite as it allows me to interact with our membership on a weekly basis. That interaction is what keeps this game, and DLF, so fun and interesting to me. Two of my organic, who I am, traits have long been statistics and strategy. Naturally, the dynasty format plays into both very well and my years in giving advice has only allowed me to hone those skills to an even higher degree.
When the season grinds to a close, while the ability to rest is nice, I quickly begin missing the interaction with our great community. At this time during the season, I’m also keenly aware that, whether you donned the crown or reside in the cellar, work starts anew. Staying ahead of the competition is required regardless of your level of success.
But first, a story…
I’ve always felt very confident in my value proposition to you and I’m not afraid to assert it. There are dozens of different ways to play this great game of ours and in the end, your coaching style will either yield results or it will not. Your desired results will ultimately determine how successful you are. And here’s an important fact which many may not realize or consider: Winning championships doesn’t necessarily need to be the priority.
With so many different ways to build a dynasty roster, clearly some strategies will yield more success than others. If your primary goal is simply to enhance your NFL fandom during the season, it may simply be that maximizing “fun” will be your top goal, regardless of whether you win it all or end up in the cellar. Sound impossible? Let me explain a bit further how this could play out. It’s a story I’ve told many times in the past.
When you play in so many different leagues, it’s easy to no longer have a favorite team but, instead, favorite players. Furthermore, with so many leagues, one player winning a game for you in one league may be handing you a loss in another. How is a fantasy coach supposed to participate in multiple leagues given that fact? The answer eluded me for quite some time until about 12 years ago.
In my favorite dynasty league, the one which is also my longest running league and, in fact, the one which ultimately launched DLF, there became a point where I found myself frustrated for a number of reasons. While the number of leagues I was participating in continued to expand, I found it more and more difficult to enjoy Sunday football. Being a competitive individual I had a hard time rooting for my rosters knowing that others were rostering and playing the same players against me in other leagues. For a period of time, I considered leaving the game altogether because I couldn’t find the answer to this great dilemma.
And then it hit me.
Why does winning have to be the primary goal? Obviously, if you participate in leagues with material buy-in amounts, you would like to have a return on that investment. But, at the the same time, sometimes we pay for the opportunity to be entertained. Truly, given my competitive nature and with the understanding that I tend to have very positive results when participating in games of strategy, winning is the ultimate determinant of success. But there was another element which was a strong draw for me. Throughout the NFL, like most enthusiasts, I have my favorite players. Additionally, as a dynasty coach, I also understand my favorite elements of the game: The NFL and Dynasty Rookie Drafts.
When it comes to rookie scouting, research, metrics and projecting success at the next level, it doesn’t get more exciting for me. Everything about rookie scouting and the draft is in my wheelhouse organically. Amassing rookie picks and trying to build my roster through the rookie draft has always been my favorite element of the dynasty game. I don’t believe I’m alone, nor even in the minority with that statement. I’m a firm believer in understanding what you do well, organically, as a dynasty coach and leaning into it. And so I have.
Merging those concepts, I decided to apply my love of all things rookie and the dynasty rookie draft with that of identifying my favorite NFL players to my longest running dynasty league. While over the years I found I could not be as successful (wins and losses) by building primarily through the draft, I could most certainly maximize my enjoyment by focusing one team on, not only amassing my favorite players, but also amassing rookie draft picks to bring further enjoyment to the months of February through May. Through that effort, I now have a team I can watch on Sundays and root for regardless of how those players are performing, for or against, me in other leagues. As we enter the offseason, this team drives my enjoyment for the NFL Combine, NFL Draft and subsequent rookie draft(s). During the regular season, this team receives my focus on game days first before any other leagues.
This little tweak restored the fun I have in my entire dynasty experience. With all other leagues but this single one, my commitment is to winning it all at the end of the year. But when it comes to this single league, my focus on those favorite aspects of the dynasty game culminate to lift up my entire experience and give me a team to provide maximum enjoyment, win or lose. Don’t get me wrong here! There’s nothing I’d like more than for this team to be ultra-successful but that result is purely secondary to that of amassing my favorite players and draft picks, participating in the rookie drafts and then rooting like hell for my squad come the regular season.
I’ve had some who don’t believe not winning could be a focus. I simply explain that while it’s not a focus, it’s still a desire, just not the primary desire. When this team is successful, the rewards are even sweeter.
Give this some thought if you find yourself where I was about a dozen years ago and perhaps, just perhaps, maybe it’s the answer for you too.
Until then, with a long offseason ahead of us, I look forward in helping you in any way I can with your questions, trades, build strategy, rookie scouting, draft pick analysis, start-up, commissioner issues or anything else you have on your mind. I’ve already begun down the rabbit hole for rookie scouting and will be sharing my research and results.
Hit me up with a question below and let’s get to work!
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
- 2023 Post-Combine Dynasty Rookie Tiers - March 9, 2023
- 2023 NFL Combine Blog – Updated 9:30 PM - March 3, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football – Offseason Interactive Advice - January 15, 2023
I have a question regarding a contract league. When players contracts in our league expire they become free agents. We have an auction for them using our rolled over blind bid dollars/bankroll. We have a compensation system in place. But I’m hoping for better ideas.
We can protect two players. One with a 2nd round pick and the other with a 3rd. Owners can’t bid on their own protected players. (They do get to bid on their other/unprotected FAs.) But do get a chance to match the winning bid on those players. If they decide to match they pay the winning price on them. If they pass they get the winning owners corresponding pick. Additionally owners losing players get 25% of the winning bid of each players. Ex) Josh Allen is a FA this off season and is protected with a 2nd. He goes for 100bb$. If his original declines he gets 25bb$ in addition to the protected pick.
What is your experience with contract leagues? Assuming you’ve done them before do/did you have a compensation system in place, or is it just chalked up as a loss?
Good morning Terry. Glad you enjoyed this hybrid Q&A article + a little story.
Unfortunately, my experience with contract leagues is too far back when they were far less mature than they are today. As such, I’m not going to be much help to you. Contract leagues are one of those areas which have a lot of growth and development over the past 5 years and there are quite a lot of variation for handling expiring contracts. Typically, I like to point people to RealitySportsOnline (RSO) as they have really perfected the contract league format and have a great setup. As an alternative method of finding answers, you should definitely check our forum.
On the very surface for your question, if your bid $ are “rolled over” as in meaning that they aren’t reset and everyone has the same wallet to bid, I’d question that to some degree. On one hand it would provide incentive to be thrifty with your bid $ ahead of a new season but, on the other hand, I’ve always more favored a neutral starting point for bid $ for expiring contract players to give everyone the same opportunity. On one hand I wonder if that system of yours makes it such that those with really strong teams can remain as such by simply preserving their available wallet to bid on top players with expiring contracts. I do kind of like the premium return for those coaches losing a top player due to expiring contract.
Sorry I couldn’t be more help.
Hey Jeff, I have a team in my league who is stacked at WR, he set his keepers this week and did not select Jahan Dotson.
Should I send him a trade? I’m concerned doing so would persuade him to make Dotson one of his keepers. Am I better off not saying anything and hoping to land him in the draft?
If I were to send a trade what should I offer? Its a shallow league with only 8 teams and 16 keepers.
Interesting situation. Firstly, personally I never worry too much about having direct trade discussion, even if it’s ahead of your keeper designation date. He certainly could elect to turn around and designate Dotson a keeper, but that means he’d then free up another player who he had originally elected to keep. If he’s that conflicted, there’s probably room for a discussion.
With an 8 team league and 16 player rosters, you’re talking about 128 keepers. Looking at DLF’s overall rankings, I see Dotson as the WR34 and ranked as #69 overall. That would loosely mean that he’s valued as a keeper in your format though I’m also the lowest ranked on Dotson.
When it comes to ranking Dotson I like to do so in current draft pick compensation. Last year he was being selected in the late 1st round and if I project him into 2023, I would place him right around 1.08 to 1.09. Ultimately, I’d make a play for Dotson just to see what he’d take in return. If he’s an enterprising coach and didn’t value him enough to protect him, he could be willing to part with him for less compensation. The alternative is that he flips and protects him and then you have more work to do to acquire him before the keeper designation date. Either way, I’d open discussions.
Hey there Jeff, I am wondering if you think Kamara and Henry have a full season left in them, or do you suspect they will hit a wall in the second half of next season?
Yes, but with a caveat. I think Henry has a couple more seasons in him based on what I’ve seen from him. I watched him intently over the past few games to determine what I felt his next couple of years project to. Overall I came away impressed and have no reason, at this juncture, to expect a material drop off in his usage or ability. He’s not being run into the ground he’s not a shift start-stop runner which can wreak havoc on explosion and joints as backs age. He’s far more a downhill and angular power runner and his size, strength and instincts should provide at least two more years of ability in my mind … though he’s entering his last year in TEN. After that, it will be based upon circumstance and situation. I would imagine he’d sign on for a lesser role with a competitive team for a chance at a championship.
As for Kamara, he should be fine health and body wise but would seem to be facing a potential lengthy suspension, perhaps 6 games give or take 2, depending on legal outcome. He’s definitely one to move if you get a good offer and I’m not seeking to acquire him at current value.
There’s always the chance backs hit that wall but I think both are relatively safe for the next year, suspension not withstanding.
Love this reissue of your story/experience. I have similar sentiments with my main team. I pickedJ up an orphan a few years ago and blew it up amassing significant draft capital. I lucked out on several 4th round rookie picks and FA pickups (Darnell Mooney, Gabe Davis, James Robinson, etc) and parlayed them into players and/or picks resulting in my first shot at the title. Unfortunately, my team is stacked with Bengals and I lost out due to the terrible circumstances that occurred in the Bills/Bengals game. Still, I was elated to have made it to the final round and with players that I love. I developed a soft space in my heart for one player in particular…Jamaal Williams. I lost Dobbins and Breece Hall early in the year and rode Williams’ TD’s all the way to the playoffs. Wondering if you developed a love for a certain player you werent high on because of similar circumstances. Thanks for all the help along the way! Now I just need to figure out my guy TE spot with a player from the upcoming draft!
Appreciate that Ashley. I’m always seeking to give coaches something to think about in order to heighten the fun and entertainment value of fantasy … beyond the gambling/money aspect. Love your question.
For me, my favorite players tend to come from one of two places:
1) Solid character, humble and give-back individuals who are great role models, not just for our youth, but for any individual. Players like Larry Fitzgerald always rise to the top for me just because they’re so easy to root for. Don’t get me wrong, I love a good end zone celebration and a little bit of hubris but how a player carries themselves and what they are on and off the field matter to me. I love how Larry always looked like he belonged in the end zone and that he’d been there so many times before. Score, celebrate with teammates, hand the ball to the ref and get to the sidelines. Off the field, you’d be hard pressed to find a better individual.
2) Most commonly, my favorite players come from some combination of being an underdog (lower drafted), a player I identified as being far more capable than the attention he’s getting or a player who is purely top of his position based on dynamic and skill set. I recognize that’s a wide band of potential but my favorite players usually have some story tied to them which could be just the station/circumstances they rose from to make it to the NFL (i.e. Isiah Pacheco) or simply that I identified them as a player to draft/acquire based on their profile which eluded most others … another way of saying that I was much higher than consensus. When I look at my favorite off the top of my head from each position:
QB: Mahomes – I drafted him in a LOT of leagues in the 2nd and 3rd rounds as a rookie. Dak Prescott – Drafted in the rookie 4th and 5th rounds. Daunte Culpepper is still my all time favorite QB.
RB: Isiah Pacheco (easy to root for due to past), Saquon Barkley because he was/is so good when healthy. Todd Gurley because of how good he was and his fade was painful.
WR: Cooper Kupp because he was an underdog and no one had really heard of him. Justin Jefferson because I was trading for him as a rookie everywhere I could after scouting him. Randy Moss because he was on the other end of Daunte Culpepper and was so dominant. My all time favorite is Larry Fitzgerald because of WHO he is. Darnell Mooney because most hadn’t heard of him and I have him on most of my teams.
The short answer to your question is “yes.” In many cases, my favorite players often end up being players who I picked up as free agents and they ended up performing for me and possibly going on to be starters for me for years to come. I especially love it when I identify a player in the preseason who I acquire who rises to be noteworthy. A player with an infectious positive attitude like Jamaal Williams is always a good candidate.
Thanks for that question.
Hey Jeff, thanks for the great advice this year. Contract league $400 cap. Chase Claypool? I pay $2 for him, $5 a year to sign. Are you a believer in him? How long should I sign him for? JK Dobbins, I pay $18. How many years shall I sign him for? I have $149 for free agent moves & signings. Also what is your take on Z. White & K. Ingram on my roster for $1 each
I’m starting to get nervous with Claypool. I wasn’t high on him originally as a rookie but as I watched him develop I started targeting him more when coaches were jumping off the bandwagon. I was drafting him late this past year and looked forward to him being moved. I thought he had a good chance in CHI and still does but between injury, drops, etc., I’m starting to get a bit nervous that he may never develop into what I thought he could be after I saw him for a year. I’d sign him for two years, which gets you to his next contract. He’ll be with a new team in 2023 in all likelihood but should have some risk on upside in CHI next year.
I really like Dobbins and actually thought he has more upside than Jonathan Taylor as a pure runner as a rookie. Dobbins knee injury has sapped some speed and I want to see that come back in ’23 otherwise I will have to lower him a bit. I like his run style and his vision, he’s a bit like a baby Derrick Henry with more all-around game. I’d probably go 2-3 years on him as well as the BAL situation is sketchy.
I like Zamir White but I’d say more are higher on him than myself. A lot depends on what the Raiders do with Josh Jacobs. I think they resign him which will reduce White’s value. I’d definitely hold White as he’s built for the NFL and if he can develop a bit as a receiver, he has good upside. I think Ingram is just a guy for the most part BUT he’ll have an opportunity which is what you look for in backup RBs. They are SO hard to predict and he has an NFL body with some upside. I’m higher on White but I’d hold K. Ingram as well as long as he’s cheap. He’s a great $1 back.
I play two dynasty leagues, I have a similar approach, I watch one league on sundays only, my home league, then in the playoffs, I watch both and my redraft leagues
Then you definitely get it. It makes it far easier to enjoy the games and root like hell for your team without regard for what may be happening in the other league. I standardly only watch my one league until about the start of the second set of games on Sunday. At that point, I’ve found that I can focus on just a couple of my other players in games, even if they are starting against me in other leagues, enough that they can help me win a game while not killing me in the other. But, I standardly have about 15 leagues each year so I tend to focus more on just longer team seasonal success (W-L) than going too deep into week to week scoring.
Awesome. Thanks for this. What is the going rate for the 1.01 pick? I know there are a range of answers here—is it a RB-premium league, how many teams, etc. Any thoughts on what it might cost for Bijan and the 1.01?
This year is going to carry a heavy premium for the 1.01 because Robinson is far and away the top prospect in all formats, even superflex. I don’t think he’s necessarily a generational prospect but he’s very, very good … on the level of Saquon Barkley and above other names such as Leonard Fournette, Darren McFadden, etc. when they came out. I think Todd Gurley was on par with Robinson’s upside. But this year, he’s going to cost a boat load.
I have Robinson as my only tier one rookie.
The actual value is going to vary based on each coach you ask. In current picks, if I was holding the 1.01, I don’t think I’d be trading it to be honest, even if I was offered 1.02, and two later 1sts. Just too much downside. If I was trading the 1.01 for a combination of picks it would require the 1.02 (Gibbs or Bryce Young if in SF format) plus a high value young player such as CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Tee Higgins, etc. If I needed WR, I’d consider trading 1.01 straight up for Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase.
That said, I just checked the DLF Trade Analyzer and the 1.01 currently has a 900 value. Justin Jefferson (970), Chase (960) and Jonathan Taylor (900) for reference. So that’s well within that range. When looking purely at draft pick values, the 1.01 is worth the 1.02 + 1.10. I could see how that deal would get done but I would not be making that trade as I feel there’s too much player downgrade from the 1.01 to the 1.02, even made up in value with the 1.10. I would take another player or high draft pick for me to move off the 1.01.
Hope that helps.
Thanks. That’s what I feared. My initial evaluation was short of what the 1.01 is going for, so IDK if I’ll be able to trade for it. But great analysis here, thanks.
I think the focus is winning…but not necessarily winning all the time with every league. I’m in 22 dynasty leagues…yeah, I know, but at least it’s not meth. At the beginning of the season I put each of my leagues in one of three categories; win-now, competitive, and dumpster fire. Each category had about a third of my teams. With the win-now teams the goal was to…well, win now. I traded away draft capital for studs, did my best to ignore age bias, and basically went all in. I did well with those teams, made the playoffs with all of them, and won the championship with about half of them.
With the dumpster fire teams, I traded away anything and everything of value for draft picks. Let go of any player that was over 24 or 25 unless I really believed in them, kept absolutely no runningbacks of value as their value almost always goes down from year to year. Going into the season I had Justice Hill as my RB1 in one league. This made dropping players and working the waivers exceptionally easy. I’d pick up a hot waiver add and immediately move them to trade bait to see what I could get.
Finally, with my competitive teams, I basically did nothing until mid-season. Once a team started leaning one way or the other, I transitioned each into the win-now or dumpster fire category and applied the same strategy. Either go all in or burn it to the ground. While losing sucks, nothing is worse than finishing in the middle of the pack year after year. After burning a little over half my teams to the ground I ended up with 55 2023 first-round picks and almost 60 second-round picks among 22 my leagues, almost all of which are in with the dumpster fires.
Once next year starts up, I will repeat the process, categorizing each team and firmly applying the strategy. In the end, I still get to pull for my teams, but watching half of them end up with only one or two wins is also satisfying as I know there is a process in place to get them competitive again. Meanwhile, I can watch my win-now teams age out while knowing there will be a process in place to burn them to the ground and see what rises out of the ashes. So yeah, I want to win…just not necessarily all the time.
THIS right here. I’m in 24 dynasty leagues myself as well, and do the exact same thing. And the funny thing is, as much as I want to WIN with my “win now” teams, I actually enjoy the building by acquiring young talent and draft picks, with the “dumpster fire” teams, even MORE than winning lol. Obviously, I want to win with those teams that I build eventually, but building them is the most fun IMO
Lol, I gotta admit I put more leagues in the dumpster fire category than I probably needed to this season with all the 2023 rookie hype. I figure by the time they’re really emerging they’ll become my win-nows while I’m burning my current win-nows to the ground.
THere’s a lot of fun in taking over an orphan or a dumpster fire team and rebuilding it over a couple of years.
Love it, thanks for your input. As I always say when it comes to your teams: “Be the best (1st) or be the worst (last), don’t be mediocre.”
Fantasy would be too frustrating to play for the long term if winning is the only primary goal and the only way you derive enjoyment. There’s just too much variability week to week and anything can happen in the playoffs. Generally speaking, however, more management and objective analysis does lead to better results.
Is there ever a time to break the rule of drafting best player available in a rookie draft?
“Ever?” sure. Each coach needs to determine what their greatest team needs are in any given draft. While I usually fall to drafting BPA based on my own scouting, there have been plenty of times where I have skewed to a selection (position) of greater need. In scouting, which I believe is my calling card, one must always have a healthy dose of humility. I never assume I’m better than NFL scouts, coaching staffs, etc. When looking at the hit rate, or lack of same, from the NFL, it’s easy to understand that if those who are paid VERY well for their expertise can’t get a correct pick, then I have to understand I won’t either. There’s a lot of variability in draft picks and often times we get a Justin Jefferson selected in the back half of the first round of dynasty drafts over players assessed to be better. If you’re completely set at receiver then you have a choice of trading out of a pick altogether, taking the best receiver on the board, trading back or skewing to a different position of need.
Too often, we see rankings as gospel and in most cases the lines are very blurred. Additionally, the gaps between tiers and players are often VERY small so it’s okay to skew to position of need over perceived “BPA.” For me, it’s more about what I can get for my pick in draft value to see if there’s an arbitrage opportunity before selecting a player who may be well less in value.
Agree that the thrill of the deal can be just as fun as win itself. So true that its not always about winning but the entertainment value it brings you but I would like to win!! 🙂
Dynasty 1 QB PPR league (12 teams) . Through lots of wheeling and dealing I have four 2023 1st round picks that will be 1-6 depending on lottery position. I also have two 2023 2nd round picks 13-18. My teams highlighted players are: QB J Herbert, Dak, Goff and J Lov…. WR Olave, Jameson Williams and Wan Dale R.. RB are Breece Hall, J Taylor and K Herbert. TE Kyle Pitts, D. Bellinger. Do you have a suggestion or strategy on the use of those picks? Do you think I need to draft a QB? Should I draft Michael Mayer since Pitts isn’t doing that great so far? Should I draft one RB, two WR and QB or TE1? I know there is no crystal ball but any advise would help 🙂
First thing first … good looking core of players when matched with those draft picks. Secondly, NEVER feel you are forced to make selections. When I have a lot of picks, I often will cherry pick the players I like and move those picks for “known” production over rookie assets. Young established and productive players and mid-career veterans are often eschewed when compared to draft picks but rookies bust at a notoriously high rate. Even in the first round, you’re talking about 50% or greater. In the second round and higher, hit rates can be as low as 15%-20%. Cherry pick a couple of players you like and move those picks for producing players and let other coaches risk the picks.
As far as Mayer goes. I’m well known for being down on tight ends in rookie drafts, especially those drafted in the NFL first round and I rarely take them in the first round of dynasty drafts. I wouldn’t have selected Pitts until relatively late in the 1st round and prior to him, Hockenson was the only other 1st round tight end in some time for me. Most top tight ends do NOT come from the first round of the NFL draft and they have very long integration times typically. That said, I really like Mayer but have more tape to watch. I do believe i will have a first round grade on him and as it stands, probably in the 1.09 area … about the same place I would have had Pitts.
In this draft, if you’re holding 1.04 or 1.05, it may be a great trade back opportunity if you feel you need to amass more picks and want a shot at Mayer. As for Pitts, I see a rocky road over the next couple of years as the Falcons continue to fight with their quarterback situation. I do like Pitts athletically and I have him relatively highly ranked but when it comes to TEs, once I get to the TE4, I begin losing interest.
Hey Jeff! Upcoming year will be my third year of dynasty. Longtime redrafter but dynasty fits me way more as the strategy element is much more of a puzzle which is more appealing to me. I was always a nerd about the draft, knowing way more about prospects than I should. Anyways, I’m in a predicament with my team and want to know your thoughts. Drafted young but well and made some solid trades that has set me up with what should be a great 3-5 year window for me. Superflex 12 team, with 2 additional flexes. Solid all around, Barkley, Akers/Pacheco/Dobbins, Chase, Waddle, Olave, DPJ/Rondale/Nico, and solid TEs. My problem is QB2. I have Burrow and Z Wilson. Upcoming draft I have notably 1.02 1.04 1.10 and 2.04. I know I need a QB but I’m just not loving any of these guys. 1.01 needs a QB but he has 4 2024 1st rounders and with that I think he’ll wait till next year and grab Bijan, who I will absolutely take if he drops to me. What are your thoughts on what I should do here? Bryce is fantastic, he was awesome to watch at Bama, but truly worried about his size. Stroud not crazy about, great against Georgia so maybe I’ll rethink. Richardson I find very interesting. I LOVE JSN and Boutte, my WR 1&2. My first thoughts are JSN at 2 to secure him, QB at 4, and then Boutte if he gets to me at 10. It’ll be the first time I take a rookie QB in rookie draft. Maybe a trade but QBs are spread out in this league. No one has >3 starters, and the few with 3, the 3rd would be viewed as fringe at best. This draft is bound to have 1 good QB, just need to find him!
Howdy Evan … thanks for chiming in! As I like to say: “Once you go dynasty, you’ll never go back!”
If nothing else, you have lots of options. In 1QB I love to use my early or mid 2nd round pick for the top quarterback and this year I could make a case for all three. I worry about Young’s size as well but he commands the pocket so well, is a greater leader. slides and uses his mobility naturally along with good passing instincts. Stroud has the size, enough mobility and can thread a needle at 100 paces. Levis has it all and could be this year’s Josh Allen comp with size, cannon arm, etc. I’m not sold on any of them but will take a chance on one in the second.
With your picks if you really want Bijan, move up from the 1.02 if you sense any desire from the 1.01. I wouldn’t hesitate to offer another pick to incent that coach to move down one spot. I have Gibbs as my 1.02 as I’m not sold on any of the WRs but believe three are in my second tier. I don’t feel the need to over draft one of them at 1.02 and would probably seek to move back OR, even better, see what I could get for the 1.02. I’m a huge fan of knowing what you want from the draft and then understanding the rookie you can get vs the productive young veteran you could also get. Maybe someone would drop CeeDee Lamb for that 1.02 for the rights to Gibbs. AJ Brown, Tee Higgins … etc. etc., you never know. Just don’t get locked into a thought process where you feel you have to use that pick on a rookie.
I just reread this and realize it’s superflex. So, ignore my earlier QB comment. Even more opportunity to trade up to the 1.01 if you are okay not taking a QB. I have similar QB issues in one league that I blew up this year (Traded away Josh Allen for a huge grab of players and picks) and now have the 1.01, 1.02 and 1.05. I’ll be taking Robinson and probably my favorite QB of the rookies as I don’t have any at this point.
But if you don’t want to draft a QB, and can’t get 1.01 then I’d look to trade back to a coach who wants a chance at Young. Move those picks for the draft premium they carry since we’re in a so so year of WRs. You may be able to get JSN at 1.06 or 1.07 in this SF draft.
Is there a way to flag or save favorite articles and the q/a? There is so much good information and perspective here I want to be able to find it easily from season to season.
Not that I’m aware of Brad … but you could always favorite it in your bookmarks for later which is what I do with pieces I want to refer back to. Glad you like the article!
Hey Jeff, I am in a solid situation at RB (Najee Harris, Chubb, Jacobs), and I could use a legit WR1 to push me over the top, and I have the first overall pick of the draft (Bijan Robinson). I am having trouble trouble valuing him. Is it reasonable to offer that pick for top 5 WR?
Or, should I just sit on that 1st pick and roll with it. You can never have enough RB’s, especially late in the year.
Absolutely it is but to be honest, and I don’t say this lightly because I’m a known vs. unknown coach and evaluator, Robinson is as good a prospect as we’ve had in years at the position. I’d be more inclined to see what I could get for Chubb all the while drafting Robinson, but that’s a judgment call. But, should you look to move the 1.01, I think just about any receiver outside of Jefferson or Chase could be available straight up for that pick. This is the year for the 1.01 premium on the back of Robinson.
At the very least, you draft Robinson and then see what you can work after drafting him. The only real risk is that if Robinson goes to a situation which isn’t favorable.
Hey Jeff, what is your take on Calvin Ridley next season? I am encouraged by Trevor Lawerence’s play, and the fact that Doug Pederson is his coach. Kind of impossible to assume anything, but I am hopeful he can be a weekly WR2 option. Your thoughts?
That’s a great question Matt. Lawrence is finally taking the steps I wanted to see after the last coaching debacle but I have yet to lose confidence in his talent level. I was picking up Lawrence everywhere I could on the cheap. As for Ridley, it’s so hard to tell and I don’t think any analyst will be able to tell you with any certainty about his mental state for the game or even his ability to pick up where he left off physically. I’m treating it as a nearly two-year sabbatical. He’s still young, has a lot of potential and I’m looking forward to his return. He’s worth a low second-round pick to me if I was to acquire him.
Treating him as a WR4 until I see more.
I need to drop 7 guys from this roster. We can only roster 8 rbs in this league. It’s a standard league. I should have one of the top 4 picks in the rookie draft.(it’s a lottery)
Qbs- cousins, russ Wilson and Mike white
Rbs- Joe Mixon, Monty, Singletary, Zack moss, Kenny gainwell, Jeff Wilson, kyren Williams and TDP( San fran)
Wrs- Chris Goodwin, devonta Smith, Demarcus Robinson, diontae Johnson, Jerry jeudy, Drake London and treylon burks
TES- Greg dulcich and Jake ferguson
We cannot carry a de/st or K into the following year
Ok, so dropping 7:
RB: Moss, Williams, TDP, Gainwell
Numbers six and seven were a bit tough but you can always draft them back if desired. You could keep Gainwell over Russ but I wouldn’t do that. I think Wilson will bounce back. Ferguson is a decent TE to hold if you can but he has to go with these drops. I’m not certain Ferguson isn’t starting for Dallas in ’23. We’ll see based on free agency. Moss, Williams, TDP and Gainwell all have upside but draft them back if needed. Sanders could depart in PHI which could upgrade Gainwell, but I still believe he’s a minority role player.
Hope that helps
12 Team SF league and I was able to win the title this past season. I also have the 1.03 pick, but have an offer to move back and receive the 1.04 and 1.12. I have a solid roster (below) and view this pick as a luxury pick. I have my 2 starters at QB, but I’m wondering if I should stay in the top 3 to grab Stroud/Young or take the value of 1.04/1.12. Any thoughts would be appreciated!
QB – Burrow, Dak RB – Saquon, Walker, Javonte WR – AJ Brown, Godwin, Pittman, McLaurin, Bateman, Watson TE – Pitts, Gesicki
Good morning Andrew. Congrats on your win.
As long as you view your roster and solid and the 1.03 as luxury, then it’s an easy decision to move back one spot to the 1.04 UNLESS you are wanting a shot a Jahmyr Gibbs. You could still take Gibbs if the QBs run off the board but, personally, I can’t say easily which of these three QBs will be the best to have. Part of me would much prefer to have the third one off the board and trade down to amass the extra picks … if I was looking for another QB.
You have a solid team with good QBs and RB production and youth. I can’t say you need QB or RB in this scenario though I always like to have a third developmental QB at the very least.
In short, yes … I would trade down for the extra pick without much question.
Good day Jeff what is your take on Brock Purdy? He’s been looking really good
Ah yes … the Brock Purdy dilemma. Firstly, yes, he has looked great. If there was one system, and I said this when Purdy won his first game, that I would bet on a quarterback like Purdy to be successful, it’s the 49ers. Their system is tailor-made to reduce the decision matrix for QBs, thus limiting mistakes and getting the ball out of the hands of the QB. That’s not to say Purdy still hasn’t done a great job with his other passes at the intermediate and beyond level and also shown a high IQ. Let’s not forget that Cooper Rush looked great too and even Mike White.
As to what’s going to happen with Purdy, very hard to say but he’s on the rise. His success likely means the 49ers can move on from Garoppolo with confidence now. The bigger question is what does Purdy do to the stock of Trey Lance. System or not, Purdy is now hard to remove as the starter. He’s on a very cheap contract and they’re winning. They have the defense to take the pressure off of Purdy such that he doesn’t have to take the team on his back. There’s no question that the team would prefer Lance to win the job next year due to mobility but winning is winning.
I think the team moves on from Garoppolo and has a wide open competition with Lance and Purdy for the starting role … and ultimately Lance is under-center to start 2023, but with a short leash if they aren’t at least 2-2 in week four. If they lose a game or two to start the season, I think it’s Purdy’s job.
It’s going to be a fascinating study.
Hey Jeff loved your backstory on having a team that’s really just the guys you want to root for, this I will five that a whirl!
On to my question, I’ve followed the BPA model for many years now, but this year I feel like I may finally have to break it. My team has been very successful with 3 championships in the last 4 years but I may have hit the end of the road where winning with limping along qb play will remain possible. Other than 6 point passing tds its a pretty standard PPR league scoring wise, but personality wise qbs are very over valued by other teams. I’ve tried trading for some qbs (managed to get Brady 3 years ago for a 2nd late in the year) but as an example when I tried to inquire on Hurts this year, the team (who also has Mahomes so almost never plays Hurts) wanted Jonathan Taylor and Chris Godwin, plus picks… Most other inquiries have met with similarly ludicrous replies, even from the team that has 5 starting QBs. So the question is, do I try to continue to limp along for a bit and hope that Stafford and Brady will be workable starters next year with maybe some luck from my backups in Minshew and Purdy, or do I need to go all in and try to draft one of the rookies this year? I’m chalk as far as draft picks go, 1.12, 2.12, etc. Thanks!
Hey there Dean, thanks for the comment! I hope it works out for you and it really is a lot of fun.
You may also be running into the “Your team is too good to make better so getting one of my QBs is going to cost you” issue. I’ve run into that many times myself. And unless I missed something, this is purely a 1QB league with no superflex variable.
In 1QB leagues, unless there is a transcendent QB prospect like Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, etc., overweighting a QB selection via the draft is not something I recommend. I’m find with using a VERY late (1.11 or 1.12) pick on a QB if you that is your team need, but I would not trade up or select a non transcendent asset above that point. The reasoning here is that there are always enough first-round QBs that will fall without the need to trade up for one or use a high pick.
In most years without a transcendent player, the first QB off the board will go somewhere near overall pick 14-14 (2.02 – 2.04 in a 12 team league). If I had dire need at QB and picked at the end of the first round, I’d be fine taking a QB with that pick, even if it was a bit of an overdraft situation.
Purdy may develop for you and he’s certainly looked good. But given the draft is well before when you will know about Purdy, I would still address the position. There’s nothing wrong with having two vet starters and a development QB or two.
At 1.12, you may even want to see about a trade back if someone is willing to give you 2.04 and additional compensation such that you could still take one of the top 3 QBs. It’s going to be VERY difficult to determine which QB in this draft of the top 4 are going to be the long term winner. They are all very different.
Hope that helps
Hey Jeff, great write up!
This is a general question but I’ll provide context last offseason I embraced a rebuild and sold the farm during our rookie draft. 12 team superflex .5PPR. We did add an additional starting WR spot because we felt there was too much depth at WR so they were never getting traded and our league loves to trade. My current roster is as follows
RB: Rhamondre, Moss, Hines and some flyer bakups
WR: Amon-Ra, Jeudy, Gabe Davis, Mooney, Jakobi Myers, Allen Lazard, K Toney and some eh pieces after that
TE: Hot garbage (Moreau, Aikens, Irv Smith)
I obviously need help at QB, RB, could use a high end WR, and have nothing at TE. Here is the good news….I’m loaded with picks. I’ve generally gotten good value in moving my vets during my rebuild over the past year and have 9 1sts over the next 3 years (3 in ’23, 4 in ’24, 2 in ’25). That includes picks 1.01, 1.03, and 1.04 this year. I’ve also got 7 second and 7 third round picks over the next 3 drafts as well.
Even with a ton of draft capital this year I don’t see any way I compete this year. We have a few absolutely loaded teams. 2024 I’ll likely give it a go but with realistic expectations. By 2025 though I want to be chasing a championship.
So here is my question. What does a rebuilding team likely 2 years away from competing do when the consensus 1.01 is a RB. The way I see it I have a few options. Draft Bijan and use him as a piece to build around. My fear with this is I’m sitting on an RB for 2 years before he’s really useful to me and they don’t last forever so that could make my window to win shorter. Or I could draft him, hope he is everything we hope him to be and move him for a haul. I could try to trade 1.01 for a good package of picks/proven youth. Or I take a QB at 1.01. At that point I’m likely walking away with Bryce Yound and CJ Stroud unless the guy with 1.02 also takes a QB and Bijan is dropped back in my lap at 1.03.
So what are your thoughts on drafting a RB early when you’re a few years from competing?
Thanks Matthew … and better luck in 2023
I have a team in a similar situation though I have nothing at QB (Zach Wilson, Mayfield) after trading away Josh Allen for a package offered around week 10 I couldn’t refuse. Ended up being 1.01, 1.06, Juju, Miles Sanders, Terrace Marshall+. And I already have decent WR and RB youth. I don’t have the future picks that you do however as I don’t play in leagues where you can trade future years beyond the next year.
In your situation, in this 2023 draft, I take Bijan Robinson. He’s close to a generational talent but I’ll stop short of saying it because it’s always difficult to hang that label at RB. He’s certainly up there with Saquon and previous great talents such as Gurley, McFadden and maybe even Peterson.
I just don’t see the premium I need to take a QB at 1.01. Too much risk in those three and since you have 1.03 and 1.04, you can take Robinson first and then circle back on either the two QBs you want or take a QB and the top receiver. WR is difficult to gauge this year.
In all likelihood, after the 1.01 I’d float 1.03 and 1.04 to see what you can get in known talent. Maybe you’ll can get a good offer of a non rookie QB or maybe someone is looking to sell out of CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, etc. for a chance at a rookie. In your situation, I don’t package both picks for a single player but if I could score two players with those two picks, and I like them, I’d pull the trigger.
1.01 is Robinson without question for me and then I start working the trade angles for “known” assets, not unknown such as rookies or future rookie picks. If you were able to drop back from 1.03 to say 1.07 and pick up something else, that’s a possibility too. Mayer looks like a difference maker at TE but they are always difficult to project into the NFL. So, if you could move 1.03 for 1.07 and someone like Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Treylon Burks, that would be intriguing. That would still allow you to take the best QB on the board at 1.04. Or 1.03 if you moved the 1.04 instead.
To go with a rookie QB, see what you can land in the way of a veteran starter in the 28-32 age range. Rookie QBs are a coin flip at best in many cases and the names this year are tough to project. I’d still draft one but look to pair with a good vet name. Stafford could be good for another year or two, maybe more.
Hope that helps.
Here’s a piece I just did on 4for4 you might find interesting too.
This was great, thanks for the thought out reply. That was a really good article on 4for4, I’ve been telling myself don’t get fancy and take Bijan and you helped me confirm that barring a disaster landing spot. At least exploring what I could get for 1.03 or 1.04 seems smart as well. The chances of me having the ’24 1.01 are high based on the quality of the teams whose picks I own so I don’t mind not waiting on next years QB class, especially considering the rushing ability Caleb Williams brings. Last thing….you were right, winning is great, but blowing it up and rebuilding is a lot more fun. Thanks again.
Glad to help. I just try not to get too siloed into any one way of thinking. I always like to be open to multiple angles and to be influenced by what I’m seeing objectively, without carrying TOO much subjectivity into a thought process. It has served me well but there’s always luck involved of course. Good luck … let me know how it goes.
I have 1.11 & 2.01 in a 16 team, 1 QB, standard league.
The Team, Dak 2 more years, Tannehill 2 more years & Z Bailey off waivers
RB J. William, JK Dobbins, J Ford, Z white & K Ingram
Wr J Juedy, D Samuel, H Renfrow, C ClayPool, D Gray, T Boyd & J Tolbert
My question is, Rb & WR are sure to go 1st off the board, up to 10. Leaving me to pick a 5th or 6th WR or RB. Would it be better to grab a No 1 or 2 QB in that spot? Or do I try to move up & grab a higher profile WR?
Or do I try & trade my pick or picks for a Established receiver?
It’s always a good idea to see what you can get in return, even if you don’t pull the trigger. Too many coaches fixate on making those picks. It’s all about maximizing production while minimizing risk. There’s nothing more risky than later picks on rookies. If you can get “known value” instead, its’ worth trying. You’re never forced to pull the trigger on a trade, even if you get a decent offer.
Firstly, here’s a 2023 draft recap I did on 4for4.com and it’s free. I’ll be doing a mock draft here shortly after I finish my round of WR scouting.
In short, I like the options you’re going to have at 1.11 and 2.01 BUT it just depends on who is going to fall. This year, I’m not excited about the falling WRs as much as I am about the RBs. And based on the so so nature of WRs, that could move QB up a bit too if you have a need, which you do.
I wouldn’t trade up in your situation I don’t believe. I could always be swayed by an amazing offer of course but it’s tough to fish for those. Without knowing how the draft is going to unfold I would probably use the 1.11 on the BPA who falls, this could be one of the RBs. Then I’d look to take the first QB off the board with your next pick. Picking the best QB of the top four this year is going to be a near impossibility. I might actually favor the QB which goes to better team …. later in the NFL first round. But due to QB need across the league, I think all four could be gone by the 10th overall selection.
Regardless of the draft strategy here, I would definitely float those picks to see what type of “known production” you can get instead. Given that 1.11 and 2.01 is still early for QBs, you might be able to get a coach willing to trade out of a younger productive QB for 2.01. You may even get a great offer for a known WR with youth on his side for 1.11. A receiver like Gabriel Davis, Jakobi Meyers, Elijah Moore, Aiyuk, Mooney, etc. Float those picks and see what you get.
Even if you don’t get offers right away, you can wait until just before the draft or during the draft when coaches fall in love with rookies and are willing to move a veteran.
Hope that helps
Which side do you prefer in a trade, Jahan Dotson or Dameon Pierce?
This really depends on positional need though in vacuum I prefer Pierce.
Hi Jeff…I just read your comments regarding the Ft Worth Star Telegram article that projects Zeke to be cut. Clearly his injuries have taken a toll on him…that knee brace doesn’t help his mobility. But…while it will be a cap savings of nearly $5mil if he is cut, there would also be close to $12mil dead money. Given Jerry’s love for Zeke my guess is that he stays on the roster one more year and let go in 2024 when his dead money is “only” $6mil.
I was shocked that Malik Davis wasn’t used more when Pollard went down. I think Davis is a sleeper candidate at RB.
I would be interested in what you think about my thoughts on Zeke and Davis.
It’s very possible he returns … he’s a bit of an institution in Dallas and the dead money cap hit is an issue. Zeke is said to be amenable to a pay cut and he’s going to have to take it if he wants to stay. I think they could work something out but it may depend on how the market values him externally first.
I was a bit shocked Davis wasn’t used more as well. He’s got that Pollard’esque dynamic to him and has sneaky good size. I’ve picked him up where I can,.
I need some offseason trade advice for a 10 team, 18 player roster, play 1QB, 1 or 2 RB, and 2 or 3 WR, one TE. I usually play 1 RB and 3 WRs due to full PPR . My team ends up in the middle each year so I need to do something to shake things up. Here is my roster:
QB – Herbert (only 4pts per pass TD and minus 2 pts per turnover)
RB – Mixon, Kahlil Herbert, Zamir White, Algeier, Samaje Perine
WR – Diontae Johnson, DPJ, Mike Williams, ARSB, Elijah Moore, Darnell Mooney, WDR
TE – Pitts, Kmet, Chiggy
I need a lot of help but I may have an opportunity to strengthen my WRs. I am thinking of offering Mixon+ for Kupp…maybe I even throw in DPJ because the owner has Watson. Mixon was maddening to me all year and I figure with picks 1.04 and 1.06 I can get decent RBs to cover for the loss of Mixon.
Is this a worthwhile trade or by my mere asking am I proving why I finish in the middle all the time…LOL.