Welcome to the first in a new series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.
DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we've long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.
While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.
A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this rankers personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The "+/-" column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.
Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.
Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.
1QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: JEFF HAVERLACK
Every coach has their own style or methodology of player valuation based on how we choose to build our teams or value rookies.
For as long as I can recall, I've always been a statistics nerd. Through the use of statistics involving historical probability and standard deviation, I've been able to merge statistics with what I consider to be my dynasty superpower of wading through the noise, hype, and herd mentality to arrive at what I call the "what is" of player value. I'm not often swayed by social trends or pressure to conform to a valuation trend. It has happened in the past, and I've regretted it nearly every time.
My favorite part of the dynasty game is rookie scouting and the NFL rookie draft. It's what I'm most passionate about and what I do best. But, oddly juxtaposed to that, is the fact that when building my dynasty teams, those who follow my work know I subscribe to a "known over unknown" valuation methodology. Whether that be in my start-sit advice or, more notably, my valuation of rookies to that of veteran players, known vs. unknown plays out in my ranks. For that reason, you can usually expect to see my valuation lower, many times markedly so, on unproven rookie players unless I have a very tangible and confident reason to believe otherwise.
One last note relates to a recent strategy shift I adopted in 2021: Prioritization of receivers over running backs. The continued expansion of the running back by committee (RBBC) when combined with usage inconsistency, injury, and generally shorter peak career years led to a shift where I strongly favor young productive receivers over running backs. This is not an adoption of "Zero RB" but, instead, more of an "RB Light" approach. I've already seen benefits to this adjustment. Combine that shift with my willingness to acquire mid-to-late career productive veterans and my ranking methodology becomes more clear. I'm unafraid to buy who others are selling as they try to get ahead of the production decline.
Let's get to my rankings!
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Great article and an exciting series I am definitely looking forward to Jeff, thanks for the great content and insight!
I realize it is a bit early having no combine and not knowing how it all shakes out for this rookie class as to what team and situation they end up with but I am curious your thoughts on what you know of Gibbs and some of the other 2023 RB class to this point.
Currently I am in a 1 QB league (start 2 RB/3WR/1 Flex) and I have the 1.01 (clearly Bijan) but after that I also have the 1.05 and 1.07 picks. I have a good team (won the championship in the 2021 season) but this past year the main reason I could not repeat was a lack of depth/injuries at RB (Javonte Williams, Dobbins, B Robinson, J Cook, Hunt, CEH, G Edwards). My strength is plenty of depth at WR (Chase, Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, Sutton, Dotson, Juju, Skyy Moore) Mahomes as my QB, and good talent at TE (Hockenson and Freiermuth).
Looking ahead I have thought about the possibility using those 1.05 and 1.07 picks or possibly a player to trade up for Gibbs if he really is the clear cut unquestioned RB2 in this class. This way I would undoubtedly strengthen my RB depth (to add with Bijan) but I am not sure if that would be going overboard and I would just be better off sitting tight at 1.05 and 1.07 and taking one of the top 3 WR’s of the class and maybe another RB (ie: Tucker/Evans/Miller/Charbonnet/Achane/Bigsby) in the next RB tier or two down.
Howdy Ed, glad you liked it and I’m looking forward to it as well.
Truth be told, my early research has me favoring the running backs over the receivers this year. In fact, it’s somewhat of an underwhelming receiver class with a lot of risk. That could end up being nice down the road, especially if you have late first and second round rookie picks … because there’s so much variability.
I still have a LOT of tape to watch on the players, including the running backs but Gibbs will be my RB2 in this class behind Robinson for certain. After that there’s going to be a drop off but this class has good size, production, dynamic, etc., such that there will be backs going at the bottom of the 1st and into the second that have a real chance to produce, much like Dameon Pierce last year. Multiple names of size and an NFL skill set to push for playing time. I don’t think my RB3 will crack the top five and I’m guessing he will appear at 1.07 or 1.08.
You could certainly arbitrage your way higher in the draft with that roster rand those picks but I wouldn’t advise that at this time. We don’t know where Gibbs will go and it’s very possible he goes someplace like Detroit, Indy, Houston, etc. He’s a bit of a tweener and there’s every possibility he’s utilized much like James Cook in Buffalo, which would not be an exciting proposition. It happens all too often with RBs. I’d wait it out and see where the backs land.
Furthermore, for those two picks, you might be able to land a very solid young RB with upsdie such that you don’t have to risk a rookie selection. Don’t remove trade as a possibility to get “known” over “unknown”
Right now my next backs after the top two are Sean Tucker, Kendre Miller, Zach Charbonnet and Zach Evans. All have significant upside in the right situation.
You guys pioneered dynasty content but you’re falling behind by not recognizing superflex is the present and future.
He literally says the articles will alternate between super flex and 1qb so not sure the point of the comment?
great work and love the insight into your rationale and perspective on rankings/value. Can’t wait for next article
Thank you Daniel for giving him more information on superflex.
Appreciate your feedback. Always a little difficult to rank those rookie picks prior to the combine and before I finish all my tape review, there’s certain to be additional movement. Thanks again.
Hey there Doug, as another poster mentioned, superflex won’t be forgotten and it will be the next article coming out. We will flip back and forth.