Dynasty Fantasy Football Battle: Chase Claypool vs George Pickens
One of my favorite situations in dynasty fantasy football is when there are two similarly valued players on the same team at the same position. So often, each player has his supporters in the dynasty community, and there’s a debate about which player should carry more value. I want to examine a few of these situations, breaking them down from statistical, ADP/trade value, and future situation angles. I did this series last year, so if you want to get an idea of what these articles are like, I provided the links at the bottom of this page.
Once again, I want to look at an incoming rookie versus a veteran, this time Chase Claypool and George Pickens. Both players are on the Steelers, who have an amazing history of developing wide receivers. Let’s jump into it!
Statistical Duel
Of course, Pickens has no NFL statistics, so let’s look at Claypool’s NFL career first. The Steelers drafted him in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft with the 49th overall pick. At the time, that pick seemed slightly odd, as the Steelers already had a loaded wide receiver room.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was their WR1, although he struggled through an injury-riddled 2019 season. But Diontae Johnson and James Washington stepped up in Smith-Schuster’s place, as Johnson led the team in targets and receptions while Washington had the most yards. It seemed odd that the Steelers would spend yet another day two pick at wide receiver after they had done so in each of the previous three NFL Drafts, especially since each of those players had shown promise already.
Even though Claypool had to fight for playing time against tough competition, he got off to a solid start to his NFL career.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He finished third on the team in targets and receptions behind Johnson and Smith-Schuster as a rookie, but he had the second-most yards and scored the most total touchdowns of all their offensive weapons. Additionally, he completely removed Washington from the offense, relegating him to spot duty.
The popular narrative surrounding Claypool is that he heavily regressed in his second year, but that narrative is only partially true. He averaged 3.9 receptions/game in 2020 and 2021 and increased his yards/game from 54.6 to 57.3. He also averaged more yards/target and produced far more rushing yards on his carries.
However, Claypool only scored two touchdowns in 2021 compared to 11 in 2020. Because of that decrease in touchdowns, he fell from the WR22 in 2020 to the WR39 in 2021, dropping from 13.56 to 11.11 fantasy PPG. But as we know, touchdowns are the most random statistic, especially compared to targets and receptions. He far outperformed his expected touchdowns as a rookie, and he then fell far short of them in his second year. So the truth probably lies somewhere in between his two seasons.
In contrast, Pickens has no NFL track record to judge him on. However, we can examine his college career at Georgia for some clues about his NFL potential.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He immediately burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old true freshman in 2019, leading the team in all receiving categories in the Jake Fromm-led offense. Georgia didn’t have any other serious NFL-level receiving talent on their roster at the time outside of D’Andre Swift, but they are still a top-flight SEC school. It’s pretty impressive that Pickens could come in and become the number one receiver there, especially considering his age.
Unfortunately, the rest of his college career went off the rails from there. Georgia only played ten games in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and Pickens didn’t improve from his first year. Nevertheless, he was still the team’s top receiver, although Kearis Jackson edged him out by one yard in two more games.
However, everything went even further downhill in 2021 when Pickens tore his ACL during spring work. He managed to return to play four games, but he was a shell of himself, totaling only 107 yards in those contests. Despite that injury-riddled season, he still declared for the 2022 NFL Draft, where most analysts considered him a borderline first-round pick.
Throughout the pre-draft process, character concerns came out around Pickens, and multiple NFL teams removed him from their draft boards. We still don’t truly know why he fell in the draft, but in the final couple of weeks, he moved from a borderline first-rounder to a clear second-rounder or potentially even a third-rounder. The Steelers selected him with the 52nd overall pick, placing him with head coach Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has dealt with multiple difficult or high-maintenance wide receivers, including Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Smith-Schuster, and Claypool, just to name a few. So if any head coach can get the best out of Pickens, it’s Tomlin.
ADP Comparison
Right now, Pickens and Claypool are back to back in June’s DLF 1QB ADP, coming in at WR42 and WR43. They’re right next to each other in overall rankings, at 82nd and 83rd. However, the two players have entirely different ADP histories before this month.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Comparison App.
From January 2021 to January 2022, Claypool stayed between 56.33 and 43.75 overall for an entire year. Interestingly, he peaked in December 2021, in the middle of his relatively poor second season.
But since January 2022, Claypool started to lose value as the 2022 rookies entered the ADP data. He fell to 63 overall in February before landing at 74.83 in March and 84.83 in April. I find his April value especially interesting, as that data occurred after Smith-Schuster walked in free agency but before the Steelers picked George Pickens in the NFL Draft. The NFL Draft barely moved Claypool’s value, as he received added competition from Pickens but may have a long-term quarterback upgrade in Kenny Pickett.
In contrast, Pickens gained value after the NFL Draft, as I believe some dynasty managers feared he’d fall to at least the third round after his alleged character issues. Additionally, the Steelers’ landing spot with Tomlin seemed solid, even though Johnson and Claypool represent strong target competition. Pickens had the same overall ADP in May and June, while Claypool was just ahead of him in May and just behind in June. As the two players have almost equal value, there’s no opportunity cost to choosing one over the other.
The Future
The two players likely share their future for at least the next two seasons. Claypool’s rookie deal runs through the 2023 season, while Pickens’s goes until after 2025. The Steelers also find themselves in a pickle with Johnson’s contract, as he needs a new deal. Johnson is the clear WR1 on the Steelers, and Claypool and Pickens would benefit from a potential target vacuum.
Additionally, it’s unclear who will be the Steelers’ long-term quarterback. Free-agent signing Mitchell Trubisky will almost certainly open the 2022 season as the starter, but he has virtually no guaranteed money beyond this year. I fully expect Pickett to take over at some point during the season, becoming the starter for the 2023 season. However, it’s important to note that Pickett was only the 20th overall pick. There’s no guarantee that the Steelers found their franchise quarterback, and Pickett was not even my favorite prospect in this class or a good prospect in most quarterback classes.
Therefore, it feels like an either/or proposition between Claypool and Pickens at best right now, as I doubt this offense can support Johnson, both receivers, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris’s passing work. Either one of the two receivers needs to step into a clear WR2 role, or Johnson has to depart for either player truly to succeed.
Conclusion
If I had to choose between the two players, I would slightly lean toward Claypool over Pickens. Outside of touchdowns, Claypool essentially duplicated his impressive 2020 season in 2021. Ben Roethlisberger had nothing left down the stretch in 2021, as he only managed 22 touchdowns in 16 games. Either Trubisky or Pickett can improve on those numbers, and especially Trubisky will take deep shots down the field to Claypool.
Of course, Pickens likely has more value insulation than Claypool, as he’s a rookie. But he screams bust to me due to his lack of college production, injury history, and fall in the NFL Draft. I project Claypool to produce something usable in 2022, even if it’s uninspiring, while Pickens may offer nothing. It’s a close call, but Claypool is just the better overall asset in my eyes.
2022 Entries: Jaylen Waddle vs Tyreek Hill, Kadarius Toney vs Wan’Dale Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster vs Skyy Moore
2021 Entries: Courtland Sutton vs Jerry Jeudy, Ronald Jones vs Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis vs Denzel Mims, Hunter Henry vs Jonnu Smith, Cooper Kupp vs Robert Woods
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