Dynasty Fantasy Football Battle: Jaylen Waddle vs Tyreek Hill
One of my favorite situations in dynasty fantasy football is when there are two similarly valued players on the same team at the same position. So often, each player has his supporters in the dynasty community, and there’s a debate about which player should carry more value. I want to examine a few of these situations, breaking them down from statistical, ADP/trade value, and future situation angles. I did this series last year, so if you want to get an idea of what these articles are like, I provided the links at the bottom of this page.
Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill inspired me to restart this series this year, as they’re so closely valued despite entirely different career paths. Let’s jump straight into it!
Statistical Duel
Of course, Waddle and Hill aren’t remarkably similar statistically. Waddle had an interesting journey to the NFL, entering Alabama at almost 20 years old as a true freshman in 2018. He then played three seasons there, recording decent statistics.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He immediately became Alabama’s WR3 in 2018 behind Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, outproducing future NFL players like Irv Smith Jr and DeVonta Smith. Unfortunately, he took a step back in 2019, as Smith became the clear top complement to Jeudy. Then, in 2020, he almost matched his 2019 output in only six games before breaking his ankle in October. After that, he decided to declare for the NFL Draft, even though he failed to put together a truly dominant college season.
Luckily for Waddle, the NFL didn’t care about that, as the Dolphins selected him with the sixth overall pick as the second wide receiver behind Ja’Marr Chase. Waddle was an excellent prospect, but the Dolphins had multiple receiving options as competition, including Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. The dynasty community didn’t see Waddle as an immediate impact type of player, especially with Tua Tagovailoa as his quarterback. I agreed with that assessment for 2021, although I believed Waddle could develop into an excellent fantasy starter long-term.
Waddle exceeded all expectations, though. He finished as the WR12 as a rookie and 14th in fantasy PPG with 15.49. He had 104 receptions on 140 targets for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns, leading the Dolphins in all receiving categories by a wide margin. He may have benefited from Fuller missing essentially the entire season. Parker also struggled with injuries, but it’s not clear that Waddle saw his fantasy value because he missed time.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
As you can see, he averaged an identical 8.9 targets per game with and without Parker in the lineup. Yes, he had more PPR points, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, but targets are the stickiest stat in fantasy football. Additionally, he earned a higher target share in the games Parker played, with an impressive 27.2% market share. First-round picks like Waddle, who go off in their rookie years, almost always have successful NFL careers, giving him a bright fantasy future.
In contrast, Hill has a six-year fantasy career to judge.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
He opened his career with a WR22 season as a rookie, seeing usage out of the backfield and as a receiver. Since then, he’s been a perennial WR1, outside of 2019, when he missed five games due to injury. However, Hill may have peaked in 2020. He scored more than four fewer PPR PPG in 2021, and he set a career-low in points per receiving opportunity.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
I’m not saying that 1.82 points per opportunity is terrible, but it’s slightly alarming how much Hill fell off from the previous three seasons with Patrick Mahomes. Even in a somewhat down year, though, he still finished as the WR6 and seventh in fantasy PPG. But he was no longer the fantasy difference-maker like his 2018 and 2020 seasons. He had a similar per-game fantasy output to Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, well behind the three main studs in Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Deebo Samuel. The Chiefs traded Hill to the Dolphins this off-season, and it’s fair to wonder if they made that move because they felt Hill was in decline.
ADP Comparison
Right now, Hill and Waddle couldn’t be closer in value.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
Waddle has essentially maintained identical value throughout the off-season, coming in between 13th and 15th overall in all five months. Interestingly, he didn’t lose much value from March to April after the Hill trade, dropping only two overall spots.
On the other hand, Hill lost significant value after that trade. He received a massive quarterback downgrade from Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa, falling from eighth overall in March to 21st in April. But in May’s ADP, the two players are back to back at WR9 and WR10. I find it interesting that the dynasty market believes that Tagovailoa can support two WR1s in ADP, but I can understand their ADPs.
The Future
Both players have a crystal clear future as a part of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins just drafted Waddle in the 2021 NFL Draft, and his rookie contract runs through the 2024 season with a fifth-year option for 2025. Trades happen in the NFL, but Waddle will most likely remain on the Dolphins through 2024 and probably 2025.
As for Hill, the Dolphins handed him a four-year contract worth $120 million with $72.2 million in total guarantees. At first glance, the Dolphins could escape his deal after 2023, saving $9 million in cap space. However, his 2024 salary guarantees in March 2023, putting the Dolphins in a bind as Hill’s 2023 dead cap hit is $46.4 million. Therefore, due to the contract structure, Hill will also be on the Dolphins through 2024, barring another trade.
Unlike Hill and Waddle, Tagovailoa does not possess the same long-term security. The Dolphins will decide on his fully-guaranteed 2024 fifth-year option after the 2022 season, and they will likely decline it unless he improves on his first two seasons in the NFL.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As you can see, Tagovailoa hasn’t been a terrible quarterback so far. He’s completed 66.2% of his passes, and a 27-15 touchdown to interception ratio is okay. But he’s averaged only 194.2 yards/game and just a hair over one touchdown per game. In today’s NFL, teams move on from middling quarterbacks faster than ever, and the Dolphins have the 49ers’ 2023 first-round pick in addition to their own.
Therefore, it isn’t easy to truly value both Hill and Waddle at their current market price. If Tagovailoa fails, the Dolphins could have a new rookie starter in 2023, which would not help their receiving weapons. Even the best rookie quarterbacks don’t often support multiple high-end fantasy options, including one of the best prospects ever in Trevor Lawrence. I know that Bryce Young or CJ Stroud would bring hype to the Dolphins’ offense, but even they could hurt Hill and Waddle’s short-term value.
Conclusion
I prefer to go with Waddle’s youth in a straight-up battle versus Hill. I don’t have much faith in Tagovailoa to improve, and I’m concerned that Hill will lose significant dynasty value over the next few years as he approaches the age cliff. Waddle only turns 24 years old in November, so he can survive some bumps in the road. Unlike their ADPs, I rank Waddle as my dynasty WR6 and Hill at WR14, so I see a decent-sized gap between them.
2021 Entries: Courtland Sutton vs Jerry Jeudy, Ronald Jones vs Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis vs Denzel Mims, Hunter Henry vs Jonnu Smith, Cooper Kupp vs Robert Woods
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
