Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Antonio Gibson or Kenneth Walker?
Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. The values used here come via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!
Antonio Gibson vs Kenneth Walker
Last week we posted a trade scenario involving Kirk Cousins versus Zach Wilson. We always look at players or picks that carry similar values and let you vote on who you would rather have.
The results of this week’s poll were somewhat surprising given that Walker has not played a snap in the NFL and Gibson has been solid from the start. Walker landing in a prime spot in Seattle and the addition of Brian Robinson in Washington likely have a lot to do with the outcome. Here were the results:
Who do you prefer?
— DLF (@DLFootball) June 1, 2022
The trade analyzer agrees with the masses. Despite similar value, the rookie took down this poll by nearly a three-to-two margin.
Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.
These numbers reflect a single quarterback league. Interestingly enough, If we toggle to a superflex league, the values get swapped as Gibson comes in at 318.4 to 276.0 for Walker. The biggest reason for the difference here is the rankings. Here at DLF, we have different folks do rankings for different formats. This allows for more perspective on singular players and therefore, more results and opinions. This is also why you should use rankings as just one of the several data points to use when you are considering a trade.
We still have just two polls in this series where the results do not coincide with the values of our popular trade analyzer.
A Case for Antonio Gibson
What’s not to like? Gibson has finished as an RB14 and an RB8 respectively his first two years in the league. Despite all of the concerns about a light workload in college, the Memphis grad has been fairly reliable, missing just three games over the first two seasons.
The 23-year-old has outperformed all other running backs selected ahead of him in the 2020 draft save Jonathan Taylor. Ironically, several of the other players such as Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and D’Andre Swift have had larger injury issues than Gibson during their short time in the league.
Data Courtesy of the DLF Yearly Data App.
The Washington Commanders youngster has seen his value become volatile with the selection of Brian Robinson in the third round (98th overall) and the front office’s aggressiveness to bring back free agent JD McKissic.
Gibson’s numbers did not increase as much in the receiving game as you might think when McKissic went down with a season-ending injury in week 12, seeing only an extra 1.4 targets per game.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
We have mentioned the difference in how our rankings experts view Gibson, how the value has become volatile due to the additions of Robinson and re-signing of McKissic, and general concerns about workload and durability.
All of these things have factored in to cause Gibson to have the largest drop in player value from April to May ADP value collected by DLF.
Data Courtesy of DLF Change in Player Value App.
Offensive coordinator Scott Turner showed more of a commitment to the run in 2021 than he had in 2020. Perhaps this is part of the transition out of the pass-heavy Sean McVay/Kevin O’Connell-type offense or perhaps it is because the quarterback play was average at best the past two seasons.
Carson Wentz has since been brought in and Jahan Dotson was selected in the first round to help improve the passing game. This should only work to improve Gibson’s chances in the offense.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
One last point on Gibson: head coach Ron Rivera said there may be a “1-2 punch” utilized in 2022, further torpedoing his value. Here is the full excerpt from the DLF Dynasty Player News feed:
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Pages.
Should this be a “death sentence” to Gibson’s value? Let’s not forget that Rivera was able to make one of Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams viable for fantasy during his time in Carolina. We have to learn to be patient sometimes and let things play out on the field before we overreact.
As is the case with Kenneth Walker, Robinson has yet to play a snap in the NFL and is already 23 years old. Can he pass protect? Will his running style translate? These are all unknowns.
A Case for Kenneth Walker
It is difficult not to get excited about Walker. His draft capital and landing spot are certainly mouth-watering and the lack of a strong signal-caller for Seattle should lead to ample opportunities for the rookie. Despite ranking near the bottom of the league in rush attempts, the Seahawks were third in yards per carry and tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns last year.
Chris Carson got off to a solid start in 2021, scoring 14.7 PPR points in his first three games before going down for the season in week four. Alex Collins picked up where Carson left off and saw some success from week four to week six, but the portion of the season that has us the most pumped up about Walker is the last five games. Take a peep at what Rashaad Penny was able to do from week 14 on.
Penny will be back in 2022 as he is under contract for one more year. Carson is also signed for this season, but will likely be cut due to injury concerns. It would only cost Seattle $1.5 million in dead cap money to let him go and would grant them a savings of $4.6 million. Had the front office cut the veteran before June 1st, it would have cost them $3 million in dead cap and only saved them $3.1 million in cap space (data courtesy of Over the Cap).
This leaves Penny as the only competition for Walker. In looking at the three-year career game logs for Penny, we can see he lacks the ability to remain healthy.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
We see that the Aztec alum has only played in a total of 37 of 65 possible contests. DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer are also on the roster but will not threaten Walker for touches.
Walker comes in as a second-round pick (41st overall), making him an immediate candidate to lead the team in opportunities. There were no wasted opportunities as a junior, as evidenced by the numbers below.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Still just 21 years old, the 5’ 10”, 210-pound bruiser averaged 6.2 yards per carry last season and found pay dirt a total of 19 times on the ground and through the air. He is no stranger to carrying the load as evidenced by the nearly 60% market share of carries last season while in East Lansing.
Data Courtesy of DLF College Market Share App.
Walker was the second back taken in the draft behind Breece Hall so we can expect him to get plenty of run during training camp and for the 2022 season. All of this adds up to him being the favorite in the poll above and rightfully so.
Conclusion
As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. Just like last week, I am going to disagree with the masses and take the proven commodity. I am certain this will come with some backlash, but it is worth noting that many folks are not talking about Penny in Seattle but are quick to point out the arrival of Robinson in Washington.
There is competition for both backs but at the same time, there is a path where both running backs in both cities can be fantasy relevant. Keep in mind that the days of the workhorse back are long gone. They are near-extinct outside of Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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