2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Alec Pierce, WR Cincinnati
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Alec Pierce, WR from Cincinnati. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Alec Pierce is a unique prospect for this draft class for a couple of reasons. On paper, he looks like everything you would want in a wide receiver. But questions about his consistency and production may damper his outlook. Let’s dive in.
THE STATS
Statistics from Stats.com.
Here lies the biggest question mark to Pierce’s profile. Why would a tall, athletic, top dog receiver on a good team only catch 52 balls for 884 yards and eight touchdowns as a senior? My very thought-out and well-researched answer is… I don’t know. Really, I don’t.
My best guess from watching the tape is that the coaching staff simply did not make it a priority to get him the ball more. Sure, Desmond Ridder missed some throws here and there (deep ball accuracy being one of his bigger question marks), but that can’t be the only reason.
So after watching a lot of tape on Pierce, my conclusion is he was subjected to poor situational coaching. Specifically, let’s consider the Alabama game at the end of the year. In the first quarter, Pierce had some great snaps where it looked like he had his man beat. Even the Alabama corners looked like they couldn’t hang with him at times. This was a game where the Cincinnati coaches had to have an idea that they might be behind, so they would need to pass it to their best player often, right?
How does two catches for 17 yards sound? Your best receiver should never have two catches for 17 yards.
Here is where your brain might start to turn… how could someone so good be such a non-factor in a good amount of games? Pierce caught two or fewer balls in six games during 2021. Some of that may be on him for not demanding the ball more, taking snaps off, etc.
But here’s the other side of the coin. Cincinnati went 13-1 in 2021, only two of their wins were by eight points or less, and that only loss came to Nick Saban and Alabama. So why fix it if it ain’t broke? As a homeowner… I live by those words. So while I would have loved to have seen Pierce peppered with targets, and see him catching 80+ balls for 15+ touchdowns… I can see why he didn’t. There just wasn’t a need for it.
THE FILM
So do me a favor and ignore the stats from above, watch these youtube highlights, and tell me that you don’t see an NFL wide receiver making plays.
Exactly. Sometimes numbers don’t tell the whole story.
The first thing that jumps off of the tape for me is how good he is at making catches through contact. Ridder didn’t always put him in the best areas to catch the ball, and it seemed like he made the catches anyway. During the Notre Dame game, at times Pierce made that ninth-ranked team look absolutely silly.
He does a great job using his size to go up and make a catch, especially in the end zone. He is also one of the better seam/go route runners in the nation. Per Smart Football, Pierce ranked second in the nation in yards per route run on vertical concepts with 8.45… second only behind Treylon Burks.
He also uses his size well while blocking and can make an impact in the intermediate part of the game.
Pierce needs some work when it comes to the fluidity of his breaks, and his contact balance is not great, as he can go down too easily after the catch.
THE MEASURABLES
Here is another area where Pierce excels… the measurables. The guy is a great athlete.
Measurements were even a bigger deal for Pierce since his production and lack of opportunity at times were lacking. Does he fit on the NFL field when it comes to athleticism? Absolutely.
Here is Pierce’s RAS score via Kent Lee Platte:
According to Kent Lee, he “scored a 9.8 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 54th out of 2,587 WRs from 1987 to 2022.”
As you can see from his testing, that “fluidity” can rear its head from an agility standpoint, but in every other metric, Pierce is above average or near-elite. A 40.5-inch vertical is straight-up bonkers… With a 99.5% percentile in the 10 split, he showed gets off the line real fast.
His measurables will assure that he gets drafted, possibly in the middle of day two.
DYNASTY VALUE
As of DLF’s March 2022 Rookie Dynasty ADP, You can find Pierce going as the WR15 in 1QB leagues, and the 33rd overall rookie selected.
We know that NFL teams love big receivers who are really fast, so I would not be surprised if Pierce goes in the second or third round of the NFL Draft, and if that happens, you can expect his rookie value to rise a bit.
If the rookie ADP mock drafts tell you anything about his value though, it’s that it will be tough to pin him down. He went 22nd overall in one draft, and 42nd overall in another. His landing spot may give us a better idea of how a team will want to utilize his strengths.
NFL COMPARISON
There are two players that come to mind when I watch Pierce’s tape. The first one is DJ Chark. Chark is 6’4” and 198 lbs. He had a 40-inch vertical, and ran a 4.34 40. Both are pretty similar in size and athleticism. Both are outstanding athletes as well that can win down the field, but there are questions about their all-around game.
The other comp who comes to mind is DeVante Parker. They are almost identical in size, and while Pierce tested a bit better in the drills, Parker had a bit more college production under his belt, but not much.
Parker was able to expand his skill-set a bit more than just a down-the-field player, and hopefully Pierce will be able to as well.
CONCLUSION
I like Pierce more than most. I think there were more factors out of his control that contributed to his somewhat poor college production.
He will most likely have the most success in the NFL while being off the line of scrimmage as a large slot receiver, or being used as a flanker. This will allow him to stay out of press-man coverage and move him away from the top defensive backs. He found separation against tight man coverage at Cincy, but press man coverage at the NFL is another level.
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