2022 NFL Scouting Combine Winners and Losers: Tight End

Corey Spala

The incoming tight end rookie class had athletic questions answered during the 2022 NFL Combine. Collegiate careers are not just enough to evaluate when determining a prospect.

George Kittle finished with a career-high of 314 yards in his final season – this is just one example. So, an incoming rookie like Daniel Bellinger should not be worried about his career-high of 357 yards in his final season.

Introduction

One of my favorite metrics when evaluating tight ends is their 40-yard dash time. There are multiple variables guiding a tight end to fantasy relevance, but their speed is the most glaring one. Tony Gonzalez is arguably the best tight end in NFL history and his 40 time was 4.83 seconds, which is slow compared to Kyle Pitts’ 4.49.

Since 2000, only 15 tight ends have surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in a season and here are their 40 times.

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When trying to identify which tight end you want from your dynasty rookie drafts, you should want a tight end with the potential to be league-defining. The aforementioned Gonzalez is what we would call an anomaly. It is important to note the 40-time is not the solidifying factor to determine which tight end to target. This chart just goes to show there is a specific 40-time we should want in a tight end – or at least should avoid.

2022 NFL Combine

Only three tight ends participated in the majority of the drills, while a handful of others participated in a few drills. Four tight ends did not participate at all. Here are the tight end combine results:

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As mentioned, the 40 time is what I like to drive my analysis off. Are bench reps important? Mark Andrews (17) and George Kittle (18) did not post relatively high reps but still play physically. The three-cone and shuttle drills will imply any agility and burst, which also helps when the tight end posts an intriguing 40-time.

2022 Combine Risers

Trey McBride and Jalen Wydermyer figured to lead the tight end class heading into the combine. The biggest risers are:

Speed is the answer to most of my concerns. Draft capital will conclude the analysis on tight ends. As previously noted, we are looking for a 40-yard dash time of 4.4-4.6 and it is acceptable for a 4.7 depending on the prospect.

2022 Combine Fallers

The combine fallers were the tight ends running a slow 40-yard dash. These players were Cole Turner, Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot, Curtis Hodges, and Austin Allen.

This does not mean they cannot provide meaningful production to an NFL team. The major takeaway from having a slow 40-yard time is they will not be able to burn a defense for a huge gain.

Pat Freiermuth ran a 4.77 and finished with 60 receptions his rookie season. He only gained 497 yards. Noah Fant (4.50) had 20 fewer receptions but had 85 more yards. We still like Freiermuth.

Combine fallers can be taken with a grain of salt. This does not mean they are completely avoidable; just tight ends I am not looking to buy into based on their combine testing results.

2022 Combine Questions

If you have not caught on, the underlying factor is the 40-time. Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely, Jeremy Ruckert, and Chase Allen did not test in this drill.

The four tight ends who did not test had their reasons. A tight end like Jalen Wydermyer could have benefited from the athletic drills or could have been detrimental if he did not test well. This could be a case of Wydermyer and his camp understanding his NFL evaluation and liking where he may go in the upcoming draft. Athletic measures are not the solidifying factor. Here is Wydermyer completing receiving drills:

It will be important to note if these players test at their pro days.

Conclusion

We can argue tape and analytics all day. What matters most is if the NFL likes a player. Draft capital will be an important factor when determining who to select in rookie drafts. George Kittle was a fifth-round selection and of course late-round selections can be great. Some talented players (like Brevin Jordan) may fall because of injury concerns.

Here are some notable tight ends and where they were drafted:

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There is no significance behind who I selected, just glanced at a draft history sheet. I added a tight end like Eric Ebron to note draft capital is not always right.

I will say it was harder to find names in rounds four-seven than it would be to add TJ Hockenson, Kyle Rudolph, Dawson Knox and more to rounds one-three. The fourth round you can argue has meaningful draft capital.

Kittle had a great combine but he fell in the draft due to injury concerns. Factors like durability and concerns, at draft time, of a prospect influence draft capital. This does not mean that player cannot develop and perfect their tools.

Discussion

The NFL Combine provides clarity on prospects. It is important to note risers and fallers. All we can do now is wait for pro days to start and the NFL Draft to conclude.

Draft capital can fool people into a tight end like Drew Sample after being drafted in the second round. Analyzing each individual prospect will further drive clarity to their NFL role. Sample was touted as the best blocking tight end in the 2019 class. He received PFF’s highest run-blocking grade among tight ends. Not every NFL selection will translate to fantasy football.

A lot of change can happen from now until the NFL Draft. The combine does not take away what tight ends have done on film. It feels important to note success at the position to truly find the tight end fitting the mold. I want to find a tight end who can provide fantasy relevance without being touchdown-dependent.

corey spala
2022 NFL Scouting Combine Winners and Losers: Tight End