Flip a Second-Round Rookie Pick: KJ Hamler

KJ Hamler

Rob Willette Posted On March 30, 2022

Each off-season brings an opportunity to dive through dynasty rosters and determine which players are being tossed into oblivion. Whether due to injury or circumstance, plenty of talented players can be forgotten due to the power of perception. You can offer to toss a pick at a boring yet productive veteran and get some traction, yet there are also younger players with promise whose careers have not yet taken off who make for excellent targets. This brings us to KJ Hamler.

It was not too long ago (2020, to be exact) that Hamler was a second-round pick of the Denver Broncos, a key piece of their rebuilt passing attack. His value was immediately deflated by the fact Denver had taken Jerry Jeudy in the first round and had the young and talented Courtland Sutton already on the roster. This made Hamler a great value from day one, and it has only been depressed since. The full rundown on Hamler is below.

AS A PROSPECT

Hamler’s full profile as a prospect was clouded by a hamstring injury that caused him to withdraw from Combine drills, but there is zero doubt Hamler can fly as he showcased his speed throughout two seasons at Penn State. His projected low 4.3’s 40 time would make him one of the faster receivers in the league and the ultimate lid-lifter who can press defenses with raw wheels. The blazing speed created first-round buzz for Hamler before he ultimately settled with Denver in the first half of round two.

Of course, you have to have more than just speed to be so highly coveted. After missing 2017 with an ACL tear, Hamler immediately made an impact for the Nittany Lions. He posted a 42-754-5 line as a redshirt freshman before piling up a 56-904-8 line as a sophomore. He was immediately one of the B1G’s most explosive weapons and one of the nation’s best receivers.

The combination of athleticism and production helped curtail concerns about Hamler’s size. At 5’9” and 178 pounds, Hamler obviously does not fit the receiver prototype yet possesses the ultimate trump card in speed, allowing teams to dream on his upside as an explosive downfield threat. It allowed him to be the tenth receiver and 46th overall player off the board in 2020. His draft pedigree is strong.

HIS CAREER THUS FAR

The Broncos certainly dreamt their young quartet of Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler and Noah Fant would mature together into an elite nucleus of weapons. Not even two years later, injuries and quarterback issues have conspired to limit all of them, with Jeudy’s 856 receiving yards in 2020 most of the group over the past two seasons. Fant is now in Seattle, leaving the Broncos receiving trio as the heartbeat of the passing game.

For his part, Hamler flashed as a rookie before missing most of his sophomore campaign due to a torn ACL (notably, the second of his career). Instead of expected growth, we got a lost season. Of course, had he thrived in year two, we would not be talking about flipping a second for him. We’d be talking about an ascending talent now attached to a top-tier quarterback. The value is in the dip.

OPPORTUNITY

It is all about projection with Hamler, and the opportunity has never been more obvious. A rising tide lifts all boats, and the addition of Russell Wilson is buoyancy for all Denver receivers. Instead of entering his third season with limited production and huge question marks at quarterback, we can fire up the hype machine once again.

There are a lot of unknowns in Denver with a brand new head coach and quarterback. Given Nathaniel Hackett’s offensive background and Russell Wilson’s talent, we can reasonably theorize this offense will be at the very least a top-half unit. One of Wilson’s strengths is the deep ball and we know Hamler has the tools to get vertical. This is a dream marriage from a traits perspective.

You can’t discuss Hamler without discussing the presence of both Sutton and Jeudy, as well as the recently extended Tim Patrick. Sutton and Jeudy have high-end tools while Patrick has produced whenever his role expands. Toss in an ascending tight end in Albert Okwuegbunam, and targets will be tough to come by, even if the Broncos play at a fast pace. Fortunately, Hamler has a skill that separates him from the rest of the depth chart. He’s a true speed demon who could cause havoc on splash plays with Wilson in town.

SUMMARY

With all we know about Hamler, it is still more probable than not he never makes a significant fantasy impact. There are a ton of obstacles on the depth chart, and he has now experienced several serious lower-body injuries. There is ample reason to proceed with caution.

However, we know Hamler is two years removed from being a premier draft prospect, and he does not turn 23 until this summer. He has never had an opportunity to work within a functional offense at the NFL level and now gets to dance with a future Hall of Famer at quarterback. This is a bet on talent and situation, two things which you may have a hard time finding in the second round of rookie drafts.

I love hoarding picks as much as the next true American, but I view Hamler as a rare buy opportunity. He does not even register a dynasty ADP and checks in at WR72 and 165 overall in DLF’s dynasty rankings. It is possible you can fetch him for less than a second, but is the price I am willing to pay given my belief in Hamler’s talent and his vastly improved situation.