Tyreek Hill traded to the Miami Dolphins: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact

Ken Kelly

As if the off-season couldn’t get any more crazy, long-term contract talks between the Chiefs and All-Everything wide receiver Tyreek Hill surprisingly broke down over the past few days, leading the Chiefs to give him permission to seek a trade. Well, it didn’t take long for teams to line up for his services and the Dolphins ended up being the team to give Kansas City what they wanted in the form of a first round pick this year (the #29 overall selection previously acquired from San Francisco), as well as a second and fourth rounder this year, plus a fourth and sixth round pick next year in exchange for the Cheetah. Hill is also going to get what he wants in the form of an extension expected to make him the highest paid wide receiver in league history. The trade is a massive one in dynasty leagues, so let’s review the changing values of the players involved.

Tyreek Hill, WR MIA

The Chiefs drafted Hill in the fifth round of the 2016 NFL Draft, despite some pretty serious off-the-field concerns. To say Hill exceeded expectations as a fifth round choice would be one of the biggest understatements in dynasty league history. Over his six years in Kansas City, Hill has posted a ridiculous 479 catches for 6,630 yards and 56 touchdowns. Throw in another 11 scores off runs and special teams plays and you have yourself one the most dynamic and valuable weapons in dynasty leagues. The Chiefs were apparently unwilling to give Hill the $20 million or more he was seeking per season as they likely viewed the risks of any off-the-field transgressions and the fact he was 28 years old just too much to justify. Remember, it was just three years ago when Hill was investigated for child abuse. While he was never arrested, the police are on record saying they believed a crime had happened but they just didn’t have enough evidence to charge him. Regardless, Miami had no problem sending a boatload of draft capital to the Chiefs in exchange for Hill and take on the risk in regards to his age and baggage that comes with him.

In Miami, Hill is going to get his bag, but his production will likely suffer. While Tua Tagovailoa is primed for a breakout season, he’s not Patrick Mahomes. Hill will still be the unquestioned alpha receiver for Miami and time will tell just what Tua is going to be able to do, but expecting the same truly elite WR1 numbers from Hill is likely going to leave dynasty managers disappointed. He should still be a WR1, but lumping him into the group with Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Deebo Samuel in the overall rankings now is going to be a tough sell. In the end, expect Hill’s value to take a dip of at least half a round here in next month’s ADP.

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Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA

Waddle was fantastic last year as a short-to-intermediate pass catcher as he set the rookie record with a whopping 104 catches to go along with 1,015 receiving yards and six scores. This was supposed to be the year where we saw Waddle take a big step forward as a deep threat, but that’s unlikely to happen now. While the case can be made adding Hill is going to help Waddle since the defense will need to roll coverage Hill’s way and accept the fact Waddle is going to beat them over the middle at times. However, an equally strong case can be made that the addition of Hill is going to adversely affect Waddle since he’s no longer the unquestioned WR1 for Miami. In the end, time is going to tell, but the expectation Waddle stays in the top ten is likely a little wishful thinking with Hill now in the mix.

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Cedrick Wilson, WR MIA

If there’s a clear loser in this trade, it’s Wilson. When Miami made the move to sign him away from Dallas, he was slated to be a starter and primary option in the offense. With Hill, Waddle, and tight end Mike Gesicki all ready to soak up targets, Wilson is going to be the third or fourth option at best in this offense. It’s a very disappointing development for Wilson, who quite honestly likely wouldn’t have even been signed by the Dolphins had they known they were going to get Hill. While his addition is a great one in reality, his path to fantasy relevance next season just got a lot more murky.

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DeVante Parker, WR MIA

The enigma known as DeVante Parker has likely played his last snap in Miami. Over his seven seasons, Parker has famously battled injuries and inconsistency. Outside of a fantastic breakout season in 2019 that featured a 72/1,202/9 line, he just hasn’t been able to string together much consistent success. You would expect Miami to look at shopping him or even releasing him and taking the $5 million cap hit in the process. If he doesn’t get a change of scenery, he’s going to hit roster clogger status in short order.

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Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA

The Dolphins stopped their pursuit of Deshaun Watson and instead surrounded Tua with the likes of Terron Armstead, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Cedrick Wilson and now Hill. Simply put, they’re all-in on Tua and this season is clearly a make-or-break campaign for him. His ADP had dipped to an all-time low nearing the 200-level, but that’s going to tick up now with all this action.  If things click, it could skyrocket. Now is the time for dynasty owners to either roll the dice with him this year or trade him now if you’re not a believer. How lucky do you feel?

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Other Miami Receivers

The rest of the receiver room of Miami has the likes of Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford, Allen Hurns, and Lynn Bowden. Realistically, the only other pass catcher worth much in dynasty leagues is tight end Mike Gesicki. The same arguments can be made of Gesicki’s value that you make with Waddle, though Gesicki’s red zone targets seem pretty safe. In the end, this move shouldn’t do much to his value overall.  He’s going to be one of those “non-elite” TE1 types of players who you plug in of you don’t have a dominant option and simply hope for a good week.

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Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

It’s hard to look at this trade and feel like it’s anything but tough on the value of Mahomes. We hadn’t seen that dominant player who threw 50 touchdown passes since 2018 and he’s seemed to settle in at right 35-40 touchdown pass range each season. With Hill soaking up a lot of those in the past, the other players in Kansas City just have to step up now as their margin for error is now playing in South Beach. While Mahones is still an unquestioned QB1, he’s simply not THE unquestioned QB1 overall any longer. Expect his ADP to take a slight dip with Hill out of town.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR KC

Well, that was quick. The move to Kansas City was seen as decent for JuJu yesterday – now it seems essential. With Hill out of town, JuJu all of a sudden becomes a necessity in the offense instead of a luxury. Much like those who have Tua, this is going to present a serious opportunity for those have JuJu on their roster. With his value now on the rise for the first time in years, non-contending teams have a window here to cash out. If you’re a contender, you all of a sudden have a player you can trust a whole lot more on a weekly basis.

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Mecole Hardman, WR KC

For years, many have deemed Hardman as “Tyreek-lite.” Well, it’s put up or shut up time for Hardman, who has been spotty playing the “Robin” role to both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. In his three years with the Chiefs, his best seasons has produced 59 catches, 693 yards and six touchdowns, though occurring in different years. Hardman has the opportunity of a lifetime ahead of him now. Can he take advantage? His ADP is going to rise as if he will. Tread carefully here, though.  If the Chiefs sign someone like Marques Valdes-Scantling, it’s going to make things much less clear.

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Travis Kelce, TE KC

Wow. Kelce has always had Hill to take the top off the defense and give him the middle of the field to himself. With Hill gone, someone is going to need to fill that void or defenses are just going to swarm him. In the end, Kelce is likely going to see an increase or targets that should help mitigate some of that. Still, the Chiefs need to get him some help fast. While Mahomes is going to pepper him with targets, it’s hard to see Hill leaving as a plus for Kelce.

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Other Chiefs Receivers

The rest of the receiver room in Kansas City consists of players like Omar Bayless, Gary Jennings, Josh Gordon, and Corey Coleman. If you believe the Chiefs did this because they believe Gordon is going to be his dominant self from what, 1978, you are likely not fielding a competing roster in your league. If the Chiefs need to rely on any of these players, they could be in serious trouble. Again, stay tuned on the MVS front.

NFL Draft Wide Receivers

Oh, baby. Kansas City now owns the 29th and 30th selections in the draft, as well as two second rounders landing at #50 and #62. This draft is rich in receivers and if someone like Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, or George Pickens is selected by the Chiefs in round one or two, their value is going to skyrocket.

Well, this free agency period sure was boring.

ken kelly
Tyreek Hill traded to the Miami Dolphins: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact