Dynasty Decision: Darren Waller
One of my favorite things about dynasty is the difference in opinion that each individual has when it comes to what to do with high-priced players as they begin to reach that final peak value point.
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds.
I wanted to dive into a few players who are approaching the point at which we expect their value to decline. Should you be holding onto them and making the most of their production. Should you be moving them on and getting a return before their price plummets?
Up next…
Darren Waller, TE LV
Waller didn’t exactly have the traditional route to fantasy stardom. Having been drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in the sixth round, he had some substance abuse issues leading to a season-long suspension in 2017. However, after recovering and finding his way to the Raiders, he became a true fantasy star.
PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE
In 2019, Waller burst onto the scene. Starting as the TE23 in August ADP based on little more than preseason hype, he outproduced that value significantly with back-to-back top-two finishes in 2019 and 2020.
Waller combined elite athleticism with elite volume. The volume was buoyed by the lack of a valid number one receiver. In both years, the offense flowed through him, as he led the Raiders in targets, receptions, and yards. Heading into 2021, it was expected that he would have another elite season.
Unfortunately, a mix of Covid-19, knee, and back injuries meant he only played 11 games. On a points-per-game basis, he still produced (12.9 PPG). However, it wasn’t the same level as the two years prior.
SITUATION AND USAGE
As I mentioned, purely looking at usage, it’s hard not to fall in love with the way he has been used across the last three seasons. In my opinion, the term “matchup nightmare” gets used far too frequently when discussing tight ends. However, Waller is precisely that.
At 6’6″, 255, and with 4.46-second 40-yard dash speed, he is far too big for defensive backs and too fast for any linebackers to cover. Despite this, he is used more like a traditional tight end than some of his peers. He was lining up in-line 59% of the time last year compared to Travis Kelce (37%) and Mark Andrews (31%).
I bring up this location usage because the new Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels has a pretty impressive usage of utilizing his tight ends for fantasy production. Could we see Waller used split out more often like his contemporaries and get him favorable matchups even more often?
As I mentioned, the Raiders leaned on him in the passing game. He led them in every major receiving category through 2019 and 2020. He still led the team in targets per game in 2021 despite the injuries and the emergence of Hunter Renfrow. Heading into 2022 and beyond short of the Raiders spending big money or draft capital on a valid number one receiver, you would expect Waller to be up there in target volume again.
HEALTH
If you remove the patchy start to his career, Waller has been the picture of health before this season. He has played every game and over 90% of snaps in each year. As mentioned, he suffered an ankle sprain causing him to miss one game early in the 2021 season before an IT band sprain in his knee finished his season at week 12.
It is difficult to predict as Waller is currently 29 and approaching the point at which players begin to see an increase in injuries. It could be 2021 was the beginning of the end, and we see a consistent injury decline, or it could be that it was a freak incident, and he returns to his 2019 and 2020 health.
ADP AND TRADE VALUE
Waller is the dynasty TE6 and 58th overall player in February ADP.
The Trade Analyzer values him as worth the 1.08 in a 1QB league. As you can see from the trades from the trade finder, he is not exactly a frequently traded player recently. His value feels about right given the potential risk. If he returns to being a top three or four tight end this season, that price is a bargain. However, this could be the beginning of the decline, and you may never see the return on your investment.
CONCLUSION
The decision around what to do with Waller is a difficult one. His traditional profile of already being past peak value and on the decline is not something that I traditionally like to buy. That being said, I think the hate on Waller may be slightly premature. It feels like one injury, and people are already throwing him onto the scrap heap as an aging player.
Given the lack of NFL miles on his body, he could potentially be a player who ages well. Combine that with the new head coach hire and Waller has the potential to outproduce his current price significantly. Now don’t get me wrong, it is a considerable risk to be going out and acquiring him, but if you’re a contender with a late first in your back pocket, he is the type of player who could extend your window for a year or two.
In a rebuild situation, it purely depends on your appetite for risk. If you can pick up Waller at a reduced price – perhaps a couple of future seconds with the view to flipping him mid-season after a solid start to the season – you could earn yourself some profit. Although if the strong start to the season doesn’t happen, you’ve acquired an aging asset who is only going one way in value, and that isn’t great.
I’ve already added Waller in a couple of win-now situations for two seconds and Cole Kmet and the 2.07, respectively. I am quite an aggressive dynasty player and welcome risk, however.
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