Rookie Running Back Dynasty Reactions: Elijah Mitchell and Michael Carter
Rookie Reactions are back! As I have mentioned before, an important part of fantasy football is reflection. We need to look back at the previous season and specifically analyze the hopefully rising rookies of the NFL. We have discussed quarterbacks and most recently in last week’s article, I recapped the rookie seasons and dynasty futures of Najee Harris and Javonte Williams.
- READ: Rookie Quarterback Reactions: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Trey Lance
- READ: Rookie Quarterback Reactions: Zach Wilson and Mac Jones
- READ: Rookie Running Back Reactions: Najee Harris and Javonte Williams
In this article, I have two more rookie running back seasons to react to…
Elijah Mitchell, SF
NFL Draft Pick: Round six, 194th overall
Mitchell came into the 49ers’ offense as a sixth-round pick to whom no one paid much attention. His spotlight was all stolen at that time by third-round pick Trey Sermon. Mitchell did not get any hype in training camp or anything of that sort, while everything was circling around Sermon.
In week one of the season, Raheem Mostert went down early and Mitchell stepped in, exploding with 19 rush attempts for 104 yards and a touchdown. He was a waiver wire darling after that performance – fantasy football players were spending over half and even in some cases, all, of their waiver wire budget to acquire him. Looking back, that may have been a premature investment.
Mitchell finished the year as the 26th best overall running back in 12 games played. In points per game among players who played at least eight games, he was the RB19. He certainly proved valuable when he was on the field but likely not worth all of your waiver wire budget as some may have spent.
This year we saw players like Cordarrelle Patterson and Hunter Renfrow, who broke out off the waiver wire as well, would have been more valuable assets compared to Mitchell. Nonetheless, Mitchell had a very solid season and provided some big games. He had four fantasy performances that averaged 17+ PPR points, which is amazing for a player off the waiver wire.
As far as his dynasty future and value, Mitchell is someone I am looking to buy. The San Francisco offense is built around their run game. Some might make the argument that the 49ers use a committee backfield. What if that were to change? I looked at how far apart the two top-used San Francisco running backs have been in the three seasons prior to 2021 and compared it to 2021. The results are shown in this bar graph below:
What these results indicate is that Elijah Mitchell could be changing the way the backfield operates in San Francisco. The previous three seasons of difference in carries between the number one and two back would not even add up to the difference of 2021. Mitchell clearly led this backfield in 2021, and there were multiple serviceable backs behind Mitchell who the 49ers decided to mostly ignore.
This trend also kept through the three playoff games the 49ers played in as well. Mitchell saw 52 carries as the clear lead back and the second-highest rush attempt number was 27 from Deebo Samuel. The 49ers may start using the approach of one clear lead back in their offense, and that would be very beneficial to Mitchell’s fantasy output.
Mitchell also proved to be solid in the passing game. In 2021, he hauled in 19 of his 20 targets for 137 yards and a single touchdown in his 11 games played. That may not be mind-blowing, but those numbers put him on a pace of about 3.5 extra PPR fantasy points per game depending on your scoring. That will not win you weeks but it definitely gives you that extra boost, unlike some other running backs.
The biggest concern for me with Mitchell is injuries. The 49ers backfield over the past few years has not been able to stay healthy, and Mitchell had that problem this year as well. He dealt with multiple injuries, keeping him out of games and setting him back in the games he played. So if you trade for him in dynasty, be sure you have good depth at the ready in case of injuries becoming a factor.
Michael Carter, NYJ
NFL Draft Pick: Round four, 107th overall
Carter came into the New York Jets offense and seemed poised for a significant role. There was no threatening competition around him in that backfield and as a result, fantasy players got very excited and drafted him in the mid-late rounds in most fantasy football drafts. Some people heavily targeted him in hopes he could take over the backfield. However, others were fading Carter due to the concerns of his size and NFL Draft position. Fourth-round running backs have a track record of turning out fairly poorly.
Carter was an absolute value where he was picked up in most drafts. He finished the year as the RB27 in points per game among players who played at least eight games. His injury late in the year was very unfortunate and it drove his overall finish way down, but when he was out there for the Jets, he was spectacular. We were actually able to experience what Carter could be in the lead role position.
Fresh off the week six bye, Carter was a star for the four games before his unfortunate injury. Carter put up top-five running back numbers in that stretch, including 22 catches on 31 targets. He was an impressive pass-catcher coming out of North Carolina and the Jets began to use Carter in that role. If he would have just stayed healthy for the rest of the year, we could have seen even more great production from Carter.
As much as I love his talent, Carter’s size is something you simply have to consider and even be concerned about when considering fantasy value. He is a 5’8”, 201 lb running back who has had problems with injuries in his past. We have already seen those problems show up this year. It will be very interesting to see how his body handles the workload in year two now that he has had some experience getting the lead role. The question is: will his health be able to adjust?
In dynasty fantasy football, Carter is a player I am looking to buy if he is not on my roster already. He is very underrated by some based on his size and fourth-round draft capital. However, most dynasty managers who own him right now are hesitant to give him away. You can attempt sending an offer but speaking from experience, it is proving difficult to buy Carter from most managers at the moment. Should you try, I would offer at most late first-round rookie value and be hesitant to go any further.
Conclusion
Both of these two young running backs are very talented and are going to have opportunities to thrive in their offenses. Both of their injury concerns make me a bit worried, but nonetheless, they should both be successful NFL running backs. They have the talent to do so – let us see if they can get the opportunity and stay on the field. I truly believe these two are potential stars in the making!
That wraps up the 2022 dynasty running back reactions. I have loved this 2021 class, and it does not stop here! Come back soon to see part one of the wide receiver reactions!
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.10 - April 14, 2024
- Brock Bowers: The Dynasty TE1? - February 14, 2024
- Ambiguous Backfield Breakdowns: Chicago Bears - September 9, 2023
