20/20: Sam Howell, QB North Carolina
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2022 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name: Sam Howell
2.) College: North Carolina Tarheels
3.) Height/Weight: 6’0’’ and 221 pounds
4.) Birthdate: September 16, 2000 (21)
5.) Class: Junior
6.) Basic college stats:
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
During his freshman year, Howell passed for 300 yards or more in six games. He led the team to wins against South Carolina Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Mercer, North Carolina State, and Temple. His 38 to seven touchdown to interception ratio was very encouraging. After his performance in the Military Bowl against Temple where he passed for 294 yards and three touchdowns, many draft analysts were pegging him to develop into one of the top quarterback prospects in college football.
We saw him take a step forward in his development during the following season. He completed an incredible 68.1 percent of his passes. This team was loaded with talent. The Tarheels had both Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. The two running backs combined for 2,385 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Howell and Dyami Brown had a special connection. Brown capitalized on Howell’s deep ball and averaged 20 yards per reception. Howell led the team to an 8-4 overall record and took North Carolina to the Orange Bowl.
We saw a different version of Howell during his junior season. Brown, Williams, and Carter left for the NFL. He had to make it happen with less talent around him. His rushing production increased to almost Konami code status as he ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns. He had five 100-yard rushing performances on the season. The season ended with him leading the Tarheels to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl where they lost to South Carolina 38-21.
Howell finished his career at North Carolina as the all-time leader in the program’s history with 10,283 passing yards and 92 touchdowns. He is also the 17th quarterback in the school’s history to rush for over 1,000 yards over the course of their career.
7.) NFL draft round projection:
Courtesy of NFLMockDraftDatabase
We are seeing him get routinely selected in the first round of mock drafts. He tends to be falling to the back portion of the draft. With that being said, once we get a good look at him in the Senior Bowl and we get deeper into draft season, we should see some of these quarterbacks experience a bump in draft value. NFL teams pay a tax for quarterbacks.
When the chips are down, the teams will jockey for position to draft their next signal-caller for the future. I can see Howell’s draft projection increase a bit. I don’t see him being valued as a top-ten player, but it’s not outside the realm of possibilities. The odds of him falling out of the first round are very slim. We were expecting him to be a first-round quarterback over the last few years and he hasn’t done anything to cause his stock to drop.
8.) Current NFL comp: Mel Kiper compares Howell’s game to Baker Mayfield. The two players are very similar in stature. Howell is a little bit thicker. Both quarterbacks play the game with a lot of grit. We just saw Mayfield play through a full season with injuries. Howell put the team on his back during his junior season by rushing for over 800 yards due to the team losing some of their talented players to the NFL. I would say Howell has been a better decision-maker during his time at North Carolina compared to Mayfield’s tenure at Oklahoma.
9.) Best Possible Destination: The Denver Broncos would be the best possible destination for Howell. The team has Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy at wide receiver along with Noah Fant at tight end. This is a realistic landing spot for him, considering the Broncos are making their selection at nine overall. They also need a quarterback since Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock didn’t work out. This might change if the team gets Aaron Rodgers. For now, this is a good situation for Howell.
10.) Worst Possible Destination: The Cleveland Browns would be a bad situation for Howell. The team has limited talent at the wide receiver position. By the time Howell is fully developed, Nick Chubb will be reaching the final years of his career. This is a slower-paced offense that tends to not let their quarterbacks take the bull by the horns and sling it downfield.
11.) Best current skill: He consistently displays pinpoint accuracy. Howell can fit the ball in tight windows and he can also be accurate when throwing the ball downfield.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved: Howell needs to get more consistent on how he manipulates the pocket. He is a frequent drifter which leads him into some bad situations. There are times when he might hold on to the ball a little too long. He has decent awareness but he needs to button some things up if he wants to maximize his experience at the NFL level.
13.) Current rookie value: Howell is at 23 overall in DLF’s Rookie Rankings. He is ranked as the QB3. His value is all over the first round in superflex rookie drafts. In some mock drafts, you will catch him being selected in the top five, and in another mock draft, he is sliding to the back half of the first round. This is mainly due to the market being highly skeptical of the quarterback position when compared to the value of the skill players.
14.) Projected dynasty value: Mac Jones posted a 197.17 ADP in June of last year, making him the QB24. We should see Howell fall somewhere in that range over the summer. His play will dictate his long-term player value. If I had to guess, more than likely we are looking at a long-term QB2.
15.) As a high school recruit: According to 247Sports, Howell was rated a four-star recruit and sixth in the 2019 recruiting class. He received offers from 32 different collegiate programs before signing with North Carolina. He got the opportunity to showcase his skills at the All-American Bowl, Shrine Bowl of the Carolinas, The Opening Finals, and the Elite 11. He was also the Gatorade Player of the Year in 2018.
16.) High School Stats: In high school, he passed for a total of 13,355 yards and 144 touchdowns. He rushed for over 1,000 yards in both his junior and senior seasons. He finished his career by passing for 3,180 yards and 35 touchdowns while rushing for 1,231 yards and 16 touchdowns.
17.) Advanced Metrics: According to Pro Football Focus, Howell posted a 77.7 adjusted completion rate in 2020 and a 71.7 adjusted completion rate in 2021. Over the last two seasons, 18.08 percent of his pass attempts went for 20 yards or more. Howell managed to complete 43.8 percent of his passes while under pressure during his junior season.
18.) Athleticism: At The Opening Finals he posted a 4.99-second 40-yard dash and a 28.20 vertical jump. At the Senior Bowl, he measured with 9 1/8-inch hands and a 75 5/8 wingspan.
19.) Landing Spot Is Crucial: His long-term value in dynasty and how long he sticks in the league as a starting quarterback will be dependent on where he lands in the draft. The best-case scenario would be if he landed with a team like the Denver Broncos or the Pittsburgh Steelers who are regarded as being stacked with offensive weapons. If he gets selected by a team that lacks offensive firepower, we might see a delay in his development.
20.) Zierlein Dropping The Hammer: On the Athletic Football show, NFL.com’s Draft Analyst Lance Zierlein stated that he sees Sam Howell as a third or fourth-rounder. This is a big statement considering Zierlein is highly respected in the draft industry.
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