2022 Dynasty Capsule: Cincinnati Bengals
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we will not use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you will see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you are about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
QUARTERBACK
Joe Burrow (ADP = 70.33, QB6)
I agree entirely with Burrow’s current ADP. He recovered from his catastrophic knee injury during his 2020 rookie season, and he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. But more importantly for fantasy managers, he progressed significantly as a passer in his second year.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The Bengals added his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, and Chase helped unlock their offense. As you can see, Burrow soared in all passing categories, including completion percentage, touchdown rate, yards per attempt, and yards per game. He eliminated any durability concerns by playing 16 straight games, only missing the final contest as a healthy scratch after the Bengals secured their playoff position.
Even though Burrow only finished as the QB8 in fantasy this season, I suspect his dynasty rank will rise even higher than his current QB6 price in January’s DLF ADP. That ADP data occurred before his impressive playoff run, where he continued to shine on a national stage. I expect him to settle as the QB3 in dynasty rankings, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I doubt I will acquire any shares at that price, as I still prefer Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson in my personal rankings.
However, Burrow earned his place in my top tier of superflex dynasty assets. I believe in acquiring a stud quarterback early in drafts, and I rank those six quarterbacks as my six overall top selections in the superflex dynasty format. I trust Burrow to anchor my superflex dynasty roster for years to come, especially since all his offensive weapons are locked in for at least a couple of years.
RUNNING BACK
Joe Mixon (ADP = 18.5, RB8)
The Bengals committed to Mixon as their star running back before the 2020 season, signing him to a four-year, $48 million deal with $10 million guaranteed. Unfortunately, Mixon did little the year after signing the contract, playing six uninspiring games before missing the rest of the season with a foot injury.
However, in the first year of his extension, he finally broke out to the extent his dynasty managers wanted for years.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As you can see, he essentially duplicated his 2019 numbers in 2021. He was a complete workhorse on the ground, and he wasn’t particularly efficient, averaging only 4.1 YPC. Once again, he also failed to get hyper-involved in the passing game with only 2.6 receptions per game.
But for fantasy football, the bottom line is that he scored 13 rushing touchdowns due to the Bengals’ superior 2021 offense.
Charts courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Therefore, he finally put up a high-end RB1 fantasy season, finishing as the RB4 compared to his previous high finish of RB10. He wasn’t that much better in fantasy PPG than his 2018 and 2020 outputs, though.
But unlike those seasons, Mixon remained healthy for all of 2021, only missing the final game due to a healthy scratch like Burrow.
However, moving forward, Mixon is an obvious sell in dynasty formats. Of course, the Bengals will bring him back for 2022, as they are a Super Bowl team. But his contract has few guarantees after that point, making him an easy cut after next season. In July, he also turns 26 years old, which tends to be the age apex for dynasty running backs. Honestly, most dynasty managers simply look at the number to compare ages, and 26 feels significantly older than 25.
Therefore, I recommend selling Mixon before July, especially given the Bengals’ Super Bowl hype.
Chart courtesy of DLF Trade Finder.
Here’s just one example of a trade I would accept to move Mixon. Two firsts and a young wide receiver like Kadarius Toney seems like a good deal to make. I’m not saying to give Mixon away, but considering his past career and his age, it might be time to sell.
Chris Evans (ADP = 181.83, RB60)
There’s no room for any other Bengals’ running backs to ascend to the starting job without a Mixon injury. Evans wasn’t drafted as Mixon’s long-term replacement anyway, as the Bengals only spent a sixth-round pick on him in the 2021 NFL Draft. He also failed to overtake Samaje Perine for the backup job, taking 17 carries compared to Perine’s 55. Evans did carve out a small passing-game role, but he only caught 15 for 151 yards and two touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Perine remains under contract for 2022 with a tiny cap hit of $1.85 million. Therefore, Evans doesn’t have a clear path to the backup job, nor is he a secure handcuff. The Bengals could easily draft another backup in 2022 or 2023 with more draft capital than Evans. I wouldn’t recommend drafting Evans at his current ADP.
Samaje Perine (ADP = 218, RB68)
Even though I don’t want Evans, I also have zero interest in Perine. We know what he is after five years in the NFL, where he’s been just a backup since his rookie year in 2017. Yes, he’s been decent in two years on the Bengals, totaling 118 carries for 547 yards and four touchdowns with 38 catches for 262 yards and a touchdown through the air.
However, the Bengals use Mixon as an absolute workhorse when it matters, leaving Perine as bench fodder. In Perine’s last six games, he has only two carries, although he had an impressive touchdown catch in the AFC Championship Game. Either way, all Perine does is remove any value from Evans, as the two players split the handcuff role in this backfield. So, take a high-upside flier elsewhere late in dynasty drafts.
WIDE RECEIVER
Ja’Marr Chase (ADP = 4.17, WR2)
I won’t waste much time on Chase. He had a monster rookie year, breaking his college teammate Justin Jefferson’s records with his college quarterback Burrow.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As you can see, he finished with 81 catches, 1,455 yards, and 13 touchdowns as a rookie, good for the WR5 in 2021.
At this point, the only debate is whether Chase or Jefferson is the dynasty WR1, as those two players occupy their own tier at the top of dynasty rankings. I disagree with the ADP data, ranking Chase as my dynasty WR1. I prefer his secure quarterback situation over the Vikings’ uncertainty, and he has a year of age on Jefferson as a tiebreaker. Essentially, Chase is untouchable in trades, but I wouldn’t recommend moving him except for a monster offer. Just enjoy having him on your dynasty team for years to come.
Tee Higgins (ADP = 24, WR11)
Higgins is by far the most interesting of the three main Bengals’ wide receivers, as he probably carries the most variability in dynasty value among different dynasty managers. He finished well behind Chase in 2021, although he missed three games. Therefore, his totals aren’t as different in context.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Higgins averaged fewer yards per game than Chase, although he averaged half a reception more. The primary separator between the two players was touchdowns, as Higgins scored six compared to Chase’s 13. That’s why Chase averaged 18.04 fantasy PPG versus 15.65 PPG for Higgins.
However, it’s important to note that Higgins has second-round draft capital, took a massive second-year leap, and finished 13th among wide receivers in fantasy PPG. Plus, he recently turned 23 in January, making him a solid, young dynasty asset. Burrow can certainly support two high-end weapons, especially as Chase and Higgins both have room to develop as wide receivers.
I expect that Chase’s presence will depress Higgins’ dynasty value, making him a potential buy target for me.
Chart courtesy of DLF Trade Finder.
I would love to move back from CeeDee Lamb to Higgins while acquiring a 2023 first-rounder in the process. This type of move would be precisely what I would want to buy Higgins shares this off-season.
Tyler Boyd (ADP = 102.5, WR48)
Unfortunately, I have little friendly to say about Boyd as a dynasty asset. He’s already 27 years old, and he lost his volume and, therefore, his fantasy value after the Bengals drafted Chase.
Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Boyd broke out in 2018 in his third NFL season, leading the Bengals with 108 targets and 76 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns. He then duplicated that feat in 2019, moving to 148 targets, although he only converted those into 90 receptions for 1,046 yards and five touchdowns. Based on his volume, he finished as the WR16 and WR17 those two years, even though he showed little efficiency.
However, in 2020, AJ Green finally played an entire season, and the Bengals drafted Higgins, sending Boyd back to 110 targets. But with the inconsistent quarterback play, he made little fantasy impact, finishing at WR30. Then, in 2021, Boyd’s volume declined again after Chase joined the team, even though Burrow played the whole season. He fell to an uninteresting 94 targets and 67 receptions in 16 games, dropping to his lowest receptions and yards/game numbers since 2017.
At this point, it’s clear that Boyd is the Bengals’ WR3, well behind Chase and Higgins. He will have a strong game here and there, but those are impossible to predict. Worst of all, he’s on a relatively cheap contract for 2022 and 2023, and the Bengals have Chase and Higgins on their rookie deals for that entire time. If Boyd won’t even be the second weapon on this offense, he is simply a high-priced roster-clogger and nothing more. I have zero interest in him at his current ADP or anywhere near it.
Auden Tate (ADP = 239, WR117)
I feel like Tate has been a sleeper forever and in the NFL for years, but somehow he only just turned 25 this past week. Unfortunately, he regressed from his 2019 numbers in 2020 and then fell off the radar entirely in 2021. I could see some team giving him a shot in free agency this spring, but I wouldn’t bother giving him a roster spot on my dynasty team.
TIGHT END
CJ Uzomah (ADP = 231.5, TE36)
Interestingly, Uzomah had the best year of his career in 2021.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He set career-highs in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns, finishing as the TE19. Unfortunately, he recently suffered an MCL sprain, which may force him to miss the Super Bowl and an excellent opportunity to showcase his receiving talent on a bigger stage.
But for dynasty purposes, I expect little from Uzomah. He’s managed to relegate 2019 second-rounder Drew Sample to oblivion, but that’s pretty much it. I expect the Bengals to retain him in free agency on a cheap deal to run it back for 2022. In that case, he’ll be a streaming TE2 and nothing more.
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
