Lineup Advice, Team Tracking & Strategy: Ship Week 17

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Week 17 - Championship Week

It's the week we've all been waiting for in most leagues - Championship week! Good luck!

When looking back at week 16, there was a crazy amount of scoring variability from players who could have been in lineups due to role, but were left out due to production. But this is one of those times I like to highlight why I favor role, whenever possible, over getting "cute" or playing a "reach" in important games. I like to regress to the mean when it's one-and-done as long as I can get behind what the "mean" really is. Any of us who have played this game for any length of time know that it only take one long pass or one long run to change a game. Jaylen Waddle put up 15 points in one play and turned the tide of one of my playoff games - unfortunately I don't roster him in any of my leagues. But it only takes one play and when you have players who are seeing touches but not production, realize that the history of lack of production doesn't ordain lack of production in the future.

I'll talk more about this in strategy below.

As the dust settles on week 16, we had some performances which were certain to produce some bad beats or, at the very least, leave many coaches yelling at the sky about how they got beat by players who came out of nowhere. Let's roll the credits on some of those names:

• Cam Akers
• Tyler Higbee
• Gardner Minshew
• Leonard Fournette
• CeeDee Lamb
• TJ Hockenson
• Kendrick Bourne
• D'Onta Foreman
• Greg Dortch

Note that some of these players have big production upside such as CeeDee Lamb but definitely produced when it was all on the line for fantasy managers in week 16. Funny thing about four of those top five players, I have all but Minshew on my longest running dynasty league and am likely to set the all-time points record in the league this week as a non-playoff team.

To be sure, most of the big games came from big name players and it's not rare to see their names grace the list. But some of those names were borderline starts this week and very well could have been left on the bench without any questions asked. That can make for a rough night sleep.

Looking forward to week 17, we have some tough waters for some players:

• Derrick Henry faces a tough Dallas defensive unit vs. the run
• Dolphins' skill position players face off against the Patriots, skilled at keeping output low
• Jalen Hurts is going to be questionable as they host the Saints
• Tom Brady and the Bucs host the surging Panthers who still have a solid defense
• Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and the Jaguars travel to a Houston team which gives offenses fits
• Raiders skill position players host the 49ers, not a great match-up for Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs
• The Vikings travel to Lambeau to face off against their division rival and the Packers are not an easy out
• The Fading Seahawks host the Jets, another tough defensive team

Lot's of room for downside games here, but we also have some intriguing upside affairs:

• Cowboys skill position players, especially receivers, versus the Titans
• Justin Fields vs. the Lions. This is a high-beta (risk) start with the hope he can pile up rushing yards? Can he?
• The Chiefs host the listing and sinking Broncos, who just fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett as I write this
• Packers face a very forgiving Vikings defensive unit - Have the stars turned for the Pack?
• Cam Akers will look to continue his productive ways vs the Chargers in a favorable matchup
• Lions skill position players vs. the Bears who are yielding loads of points

I'll be looking into these matchups more in the next 48 hours so stay tuned and get those questions posted.

Team Tracking

Semi-finals week is always the most important week in my eyes because it's the gateway to the championship game. If you play in money leagues, it's the game which ensures you're going to get a nice payout, win or lose.

If you recall, as I entered the playoffs, I had 62% of my teams make the playoffs. Well short of my 80% goal. In 2021, I managed to get 40% of my teams into the championship game, a number I fully expected to be unattainable in 2022. Once you hit the playoffs, there's just too much variability in week-to-week production to ever expect to get nearly 50% of your teams into the big dance. That all said, I had to set a stretch goal of getting 50% of my teams to the finals, which would have meant seven teams, given that I am tracking 13 teams in 2022. Realistically, I was hoping to send six teams but still didn't feel I could attain a 46% championship game result.

Those who understand statistics know that it's much easier to attain great results on a much smaller sample size. In fantasy football, once you get over 7-8 teams, it becomes increasingly more difficult to attain impressive results. And there's another factor to consider. At some point, the more teams you add also removes your ability to focus on doing the work/research to keep them all performing at a high level. Miss a high-valued free agent or miss a late game-day inactive player and you could impact your season or, worse, multiple seasons. I know some who play in more than 50 leagues. Since I tend to perform relatively well year-over-year, I've been trying to find that sweet spot for how many leagues I can maintain while still putting in the work to keep them competitive.

As it stands, 13, give or take, seems to be the number for me. It's an inexact science and given that life isn't linear as to the time challenges thrown at you, what can be going very well during one set of weeks can be very challenging in other weeks. I also tend to play most formats within my wheelhouse so that I can apply my research to most all of my leagues. The only real wrinkle is the superflex format which I've come to enjoy but my research still applies, it only needs to be modified for roster build.

So, back to the leagues...

I sent 8-of-13 to the playoffs. Of those teams, of the five who did not advance, I had no expectation for three of them. Of the other two, one was a new startup and performed well (7-7) but not well enough. The other team was a complete surprise and despite a 10-4 finish, it missed the playoffs because we are primarily a total points superflex format and I had some major issues starting in week 10. Unfortunately, I got healthy in week 15, just after missing the playoffs.

Entering week 15, if you recall, I had six teams playing, including one who missed a bye week by a mere two points. If not for the the Green Bay defense, a big research topic of mine heading into the week, I would have been 0-6. THAT would have been a first and it was very disappointing. The Packers bailed me out of that pitiful week by giving me at least two wins. 2-4 is a hell of a lot better than 0-6. The sad thing is that those four losses were by teams which were very strong. I really expected to be 4-2 or 5-1.

So, combined with the two teams which had secured a bye, I sent four teams to the semi-final game:

Dynasty 4

Victory! Not a commanding victory but as I write this, I'm up by five points with Mike Williams remaining. Shout out to Justin Jefferson in this one. Amusing story here in that I picked up the Broncos defense to start vs. the Rams instead of the Patriots vs. Bengals. The Patriots have been my defense all season. In the end, I forgot to make the switch on game day. The Patriots defense scored 14 points and the Broncos, 0. Subtract those points out and I'd need 9+

Dynasty 6

Victory! Solid 20 point victory here despite not forgetting to put in Denver as my defense. This league has been frustrating because this team has always been VERY good but suffers from bad beats in the playoffs. I even had Cam Akers on the bench.

Dynasty 7

Victory! This one wasn't close and I feel bad for the other owner because his entire team laid down. I'm up by 70 with Justin Herbert to go.

SUL9 

Victory! Closest game of the four and I squeaked out a two-point victory due to Chris Godwin and my researched pickup of Panthers' kicker Eddy Pineiro who put up 15.3 points. Opponent had Waddle going off while I had Christian Watson chiming in but he left in the second half and wouldn't return. I had thought it might be over due to Waddles big game.

So, 4-0 in semi-finals week and I didn't think that was possible given the strength of some of the teams. Stings a little because a majority of my other ousted teams in week 15 all posted big scores enough to move on to the championship game should they have survived, but that's the game we play.

Out of 13 teams, sending 4 (30%) to the championship game. Below my goal but fantasy is a fickle mistress and any time you can get a team to the ring game, it's a good year.

Strategy

Scoring variability and opportunity production, as I like to call it, are very real in fantasy football. It's a "duh" statement but as much as it plays a role in the regular season, it can be the difference in a one-and-done scenario of the playoffs.

We all fall for the siren's call of a juicy matchup for the off-player on occasion over more notable players but it's something I'm always very aware of. When you get streaky players like Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, George Kittle, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, just to name a few from 2022, we as fantasy managers have a choice to make when it comes to starting-sitting those names in big games. Even when looking at those names, some aren't automatic starts even in regular-season weeks.

Then you get other names such as Donovan Peoples-Jones, Isaiah Hodgins, Zonovan Knight, Zay Jones, Mack Hollins, Jerick McKinnon, Chigo Okonkwo, Demarcus Robinson, Greg Dortch, etc. who may trend in any given week, and often multiple weeks such that they make for, what would seem, to be an intriguing upside play.

I always try to resist these plays, lest my "every week" play ends up returning to their productive ways but on my bench, causing me lost sleep. It's not sexy to say, but in many cases I'd rather take the loss with my starters rather than risk the trending off-player in what would seem to be a 'juicy' matchup. Where the line exists between genius and foolish is rarely very clear, however.

Over the decades, I've learned that opportunity production, that being a players snaps, regular volume and role, must take precedence over the recent trending off-player start. It can work out gloriously when we catch lightning in a bottle but like a gambler on a hot streak, it usually won't last. Once again, when it comes to my line-up advice, I will rarely suggest a jump the shark play over a more traditional name. I just can't bring myself to do that for/to you. To be sure, there will be times when a player is guaranteed volume and may not be an every-week name, even such that I would recommend them, but these events to be uncommon. Recent plays such as Zonovan Knight, Isaiah Hodgins, Chris Moore and even D'Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, Cam Akers risk the "chasing points" situation where we jump after fool's gold in hopes of lightning striking a second time. If you are going to make plays such as these, please make sure that there's a large number of projected guaranteed snaps. That is where the opportunity comes from.

In most cases, I favor running backs in this situation over receivers. One-week-trend receivers are extremely difficult to project into following weeks. Once they are on the defensive scheme playbook, everything changes. In times like this, I will favor a lower-ceiling receiver who has produced at a consistent level over the one-week anomaly play. Again, my research almost always starts with snaps before production. The rabbit-hole of research which follows then moves lower to routes, quarterback quality, home/away, general match-up, cornerback match-up, weather and then long term and recent term trends for targets into production. Game script is also difficult to project but it's something I'll use. Forecasting blowouts is a mystical art I gave up long ago.

Part of this is me giving you how I dispense advice but it's something you can use in your own games when you wish to make the calls yourself. It's also why I ask you to tell me who YOU would start without my advice. It helps for me to see your coaching style, decisioning tree and I use it so I can become a chameleon of sorts and acclimate to your style and not suggest advice which is too far afield.

I think, over time, however, you will find that you will be more successful in your own decisioning. Of course, despite all of our attempts, we can't be 100% accurate. If we were, much of the fun of the game would be gone.

Good luck in championship week!