Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week 16

Merry Christmas and a happy fantasy playoffs season to you. Let’s dig into some week 15 data and go hunting for more touchdowns to stick in our stockings and create some fantasy championships for a happy new year.

The holiday vocabulary having been duly plundered for appropriate seasonal references, may I remind you that I collect weekly NFL data and post it on a sheet here for free.

Now let’s get to it.

Last Week

Last week’s results were - if I’m being generous - fine. All but one finished as “startable” at their position relative to most league settings. Only Alvin Kamara’s RB24 finish was disappointing. However, Greg Dulcich did, indeed, disappoint me after disappointing a lot of matchup enthusiasts the week before.

Somehow Diontae Johnson finished back inside the top 12 without catching any touchdown regression. As a side note, it’s starting to look like he and Mitchell Trubisky have a connection (more so than he and Kenny Pickett at any rate) as Johnson was also doing better between weeks one to three when Trubisky was playing.

Additionally, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Marquez Valdes-Scantling also caught touchdowns last week. This means four of the top five (non-injured) players – all with more than two “due touchdowns’ last week – hit. If we include Johnson finishing in the top 12, it brings it to all five.

Nevertheless, with Zay Jones catching three touchdowns – not to mention Noah Brown and Russell Gage catching two touchdowns each - I think it’s fair to say variance, not regression won the week.

Touchdown Regression for Week 16