2022 NFL Draft: Dynasty Rookie Rankings Review, Round Two

Welcome back to part two of my Rookie Rankings Review. If you haven’t read the first part, you can find it here. As a quick refresher, I’m taking a look back at my superflex rookie rankings from directly after the 2022 NFL Draft to review my process of player evaluation to see what I can learn.

Rank	Player	Position	Rank	Player	Position
1	Breece Hall	RB	13	David Bell	WR
2	Garrett Wilson	WR	14	Christian Watson	WR
3	Drake London	WR	15	Trey McBride	TE
4	Treylon Burks	WR	16	James Cook	RB
5	Kenneth Walker III	RB	17	John Metchie III	WR
6	Jameson Williams	WR	18	Matt Corral	QB
7	Chris Olave	WR	19	Desmond Ridder	QB
8	Jahan Dotson	WR	20	Jalen Tolbert	WR
9	Skyy Moore	WR	21	Malik Willis	QB
10	Kenny Pickett	QB	22	Wan’Dale Robinson	WR
11	George Pickens	WR	23	Isaiah Spiller	RB
12	Rachaad White	RB	24	Zamir White	RB

 

David Bell, WR CLE

Bell was a divisive prospect. He had a top-notch production profile but scored very low in all athletic measurables and was expected to have disappointing draft capital as a result. Being selected with the 99th pick in the third round of the NFL Draft by the Browns was a bit of a mixed bag for me. The draft capital wasn’t ideal but at least it was on day two and the Browns were sorely lacking in depth at wide receiver but were a run-first team.

Ultimately, I loved Bell’s college production and breakout age, which led me to rank him just outside the first round, expecting that he would be a factor for the Browns early into his career. Unfortunately, Bell has been underwhelming though I do believe his increased usage as of late gives reason for hope. If I could go back in time, I would make sure to have all the round two draft capital rookies ahead of him as I think Bell being an end-of-third-round NFL Draft pick should have made me reconsider my feelings.

Christian Watson, WR GB

Like Bell, Watson was also a divisive prospect but for the exact opposite reason. Watson is an athletic phenom with a production profile that left a lot to desire and was a very raw player. I, like many, had serious concerns about how long it would take Watson to acclimate to the NFL and what type of player he could even be, believing that he would mostly just be a deep threat and gadget player. I was very wrong.

It’s still a small sample size but Watson has looked quite impressive since getting healthy. He may be relying on big plays and touchdowns currently but some players are just flat-out better at doing that and I think Watson looks to be one of those players. Process-wise, I’m okay with where I had him outside of the fact that he should have been ahead of Bell. He was still a risky bet in my opinion.

Trey McBride, TE ARI

It’s tough to give much analysis to McBride with him being a rookie tight end, which is a position we don’t expect immediate production from. He has seen some action, and it can be argued he’s underwhelmed with his time, I just won’t be making that argument. With rookie tight ends, we should be excited when they produce early but we shouldn’t be concerned when they don’t.

In my opinion, McBride had the best profile of all the tight ends in the draft, got the highest draft capital, and nothing has happened to make me think having him ranked where I did was incorrect. Keep the faith with McBride.

James Cook, RB BUF

Cook was a first-round rookie pick for a lot of people and I could never get on board with it. He had exciting athleticism and receiving ability but his profile fell off a cliff after that for me. He was an undersized senior declare who split time all through college and got drafted to a team who rarely throws to their running backs.

I thought that the expectation for Cook in the NFL was that his realistic ceiling would be him being in a 50/50 split where he gets the majority of the receiving work which is a fine enough role but not a player I can take in the first round. I’m happy with where I ranked him and feel the process of getting there was sound.

John Metchie III, WR HOU

First, let’s send some good thoughts Metchie’s way as he currently battles Leukemia. Obviously we don’t have any additional information on Metchie seeing how he was unable to play this year. Looking back, I was a fan of his he was a fairly productive slot wide receiver in college who was an early declare and got drafted onto a team in the Texans who were desperate for pass catchers. I like where I had him ranked as I thought he was a player who could produce early and give a quick return on your investment. Hopefully Metchie returns from Leukemia and finds success in the NFL!

Matt Corral, QB CAR

In this rookie class, after Kenny Pickett, everyone had a favorite quarterback between Corral, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis, seeing how they were all drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft and had some kind of worth to their profile. Corral was my pick of the three. To me, he was the most pro-ready of the three while still possessing a high ceiling as he had shown the ability to add some rushing while in college. The big knock for him was that he played in a one-read system in college and he would need to learn to read defenses in the NFL. I believe that all college quarterbacks struggle to read defenses when getting to the NFL to some degree so it wasn’t the biggest knock for him to have.

Unfortunately, Corral has been injured but with how Carolina’s season has been it’s easy to think he would have had a chance to start by now and we would have been able to get a better read on him. Going back, I wouldn’t change anything. Quarterbacks are smart investments in superflex leagues and rookies can provide an instant return on your investment if they show anything.

Desmond Ridder, QB ATL

Ridder was not too far behind Corral for me. He played in a more pro-style college offense and showed just as much ability to run but wasn’t as productive as well as having some serious accuracy and decision-making issues. I still liked Ridder more than Willis though as I thought he had the quicker path to opportunity. That’s all I really wanted with this crop of quarterbacks because I wanted to try and flip them for something better as I didn’t think any of them had a good chance of becoming multiple-year NFL starting quarterbacks. Ridder was recently given his chance to start and he certainly did not impress. Still, he has a chance rest of the season to improve his play and stock. Like Corral, I’m okay with where I had him ranked.

Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL

This is by far my biggest miss in terms of rookie evaluation and ranking. I was a true fan of Tolbert’s profile despite him being a senior declare from a small school. I thought he has a very good production profile, looked to be ready to contribute early into his NFL career, and then he got drafted to a team in the Cowboys who had a very easy path to opportunity for him. I was consistently ahead of consensus on Tolbert because I really felt like he would be able to produce before most of the other rookie wide receivers just based on the situation and that I would be able to move him for a good profit.

Flat out, I was wrong. Tolbert has struggled to adjust to the NFL and has barely touched the field. When evaluating him, I should have given more credence to his senior declare from a small school status as we know players like that have a smaller chance of hitting in the NFL. It could be argued that Tolbert shouldn’t have even been a second-round rookie draft pick and I don’t think I would put up a fight.

Malik Willis, QB TEN

Willis was an interesting prospect as his physical attributes were truly elite. He’s a fast and dynamic runner while having incredible arm strength to put the ball anywhere on the field. He also has very bad accuracy and decision-making issues while coming from a small school where he should have been more productive. But, because of his elite physical attributes, there was no denying he had the highest ceiling of any quarterback in the draft. Despite this, I had him behind Corral and Ridder because I thought it would be two years before we saw Willis without there being an injury as Ryan Tannehill is under a hefty contract. Tannehill has ended up missing some time and we got to see Willis on an NFL field. The results were not good. Willis’ issues were clear and the Titans did their best to not let Willis actually throw the football. I’m happy with how I ranked him.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR NYG

I really wanted to like Robinson more as he entered the NFL as he had a very interesting college production profile but his 5’8” height made me be conservative. There are just too few wide receivers who find success at the NFL level while being that height. Once Robinson was able to get his opportunity for the Giants, he looked to clearly be their best receiving option and was commanding a healthy target share until an injury cut his season short (pun very much intended). Obviously, I should have ranked him higher. Like anything, players like Robinson need context and can’t be written off just because of height. His impressive junior season in the SEC should have given me more faith.

Isaiah Spiller, RB LAC

What a fall from grace for Spiller. Prior to him running his 40-yard dash there were people who thought he was a better prospect than Breece Hall. Spiller was productive in college from the moment he got there and has the skills of a three-down back. Even with his poor athletic testing, I liked him as I believe speed scores for running backs can be overvalued and that he truly did have a three down skill set that would eventually earn him opportunities. I also liked his landing spot with the Chargers as they’ve been looking for a good compliment to Austin Ekeler.

Spiller though has done very little in his rookie year to quell the concerns around him entering the NFL. Reviewing his ranking, I think my process was fine as running backs with paths to opportunity are good candidates to get you a quick return on your investment. I just wish I had Dameon Pierce ahead of him as Pierce had the much easier path to opportunity.

Zamir White, RB LV

White was similar to Spiller in the way that they were drafted into like situations and had one serious knock on their profile. For White, it was that he was very clearly only a first and second-down running back and would almost certainly add nothing as a receiver. There was reason for excitement as the Raiders had not picked up Josh Jacobs‘ fifth-year option on his rookie contract and it was very easy to assume that White was the succession plan for Jacobs and that White may even steal some carries from Jacobs.

As we know, Jacobs has taken his play to the next level this year and has truly impressed everyone making this situation much murkier as now it wouldn’t be surprising if the Raiders re-signed Jacobs and effectively killing White’s value. Still, like Spiller, I think the process to get to his ranking was sound outside of having him above Dameon Pierce.

Going through this process of auditing myself can be tough because it requires me to face my failures but I always learn and get better from doing so. Everyone should take the time to review themselves when they can. None of us have all the answers. We can only hope to get better at finding the answers and self-auditing will help us get there.

2022 NFL Draft: Dynasty Rookie Rankings Review, Round Two