Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week 15
Welcome back, last week we managed to catch some touchdown…regression. Let’s take a quick look back at the results, as usual, before moving on to look at potential regression in week 15.
Before we get into it, here’s a weekly reminder that I collect NFL data and post it on a sheet here for free, including our weekly calls and results.
Now let’s get to it.
Last Week
Dameon Pierce and Jerrick McKinnon were both on our running back list last week. I‘m especially happy with McKinnon since I highlighted Kansas City regression in general – though McKinnon didn’t cross my mind as the most likely. However, JuJu Smith-Schuster also caught a touchdown, which is also nice.
Deebo Samuel managed a touchdown from our receivers list before his injury, as did Zay Jones (though I was skeptical) and (finally!) Pat Freiermuth.
I’m disappointed Evan Engram’s big game didn’t show up in our trend. Looking back over his seasonal statistics, however, nothing really indicated touchdown regression. So I’ll just have to live with it. Same with Miles Sanders.
Okay, let’s do even better in week 15.
Touchdown Regression for Week 15
As usual, I tinkered a little. I’m looking at the average points missing in the red zone instead of the total this week. I think that’s going to be a little more consistent at this point in the season. I’m also combining rushing and receiving touchdowns regression in yards for running backs.
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT, and Tyler Higbee, TE LAR
These two players stand out as the only two on the list whose touchdown regression is based on them not having caught a single touchdown this season. Right now, I’m dividing their yards by two to adjust for it because their yards by themselves are overpowered.
While both are in struggling offenses relative to what we are used to expecting from their teams, I’d be surprised if finished without a single touchdown this year, although the suspended level of touchdown potential is likely caused by the same problems that have led them to these points. They’ll score over the next few weeks.
Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Kamara stands out because he’s the highest level of touchdown regression “due” once you eliminate players with only one (or fewer) touchdowns. He’s also here because Mark Ingram is likely now out for the season and while someone else could well fit into the role to share the work, Kamara is always more tempting because he offers potential in both the rushing and receiving game.
This week the team faces Atlanta with the definition of “fine” at the quarterback position, Andy Dalton. The Atlanta matchup has also been ‘fine” for running backs this season offering mid-level points, receptions, and receiving yards to the position.
Kamara has been disappointing since week nine (when he put up 42 fantasy points in PPR, to be fair). This is not directly tied to any one other player getting more opportunity, though Mark Ingram and Taysom Hill have split a decent level of work over that span.
Either way, Kamara remains the more consistent player getting over 30% of the team’s opportunity and should score touchdowns in week 15.
Greg Dulcich, TE DEN
I have heard a lot of people were “let down” by Dulcich last week, so I guess it’s my turn. While it’s difficult to start a Bronco right now, Dulcich has been consistent (especially for a rookie tight end). He has eight targets in both the last two games and over 40 receiving yards in six of his eight games played. But he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week one.
Unlike Freiermuth, Dulcich hasn’t shown up in our list more because he’s not been used in the red zone a lot. He’s only had one target inside the 20-yard line this season. However, at this point, his yardage total and consistent volume suggest he should score touchdowns soon, and we’re running out of weeks for that to happen.
This week Denver faces Arizona, who have allowed the most fantasy points to the tight end position this year, the second most tight end receptions, the fourth most yards, and the fifth most touchdowns. So overall it’s not a terrible matchup position-wise.
Honorable mentions: Tyler Allgeier, RB ATL
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for this week, let me know what you think, and thanks for checking it out.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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