2022 NFL Draft: Dynasty Rookie Rankings Review, Round One

Reviewing your process is perhaps the most important aspect of playing fantasy football. Everybody gets calls right and wrong but how you got there is more important as refining that process will help you make better decisions in the future.

For example, let’s say before the season someone made the claim that Rashod Bateman would be a bust this year. Well technically that person would be correct, Bateman turned out to be a terrible investment for 2022. But in reality, they’re not correct as Bateman had a lost season due to injury, which is not something we can count on.

Likewise, it’s important to review rookie prospect evaluation process. Incoming rookie prospect evaluation is a place where real edges can be gained. It’s much easier to identify which players are good once they’re in the NFL. Identifying which players will be good before playing a game in the NFL can give you a leg up on your competition.

With that in mind, I’ll be reviewing my top 24 rooking rankings from directly after the 2022 NFL Draft. In this article I will take a look at my top 12, saving 13 through 24 as a follow-up. For reference, my rookie rankings are based on superflex formats as it’s the most common format I play and becoming more common than 1QB leagues.

First, let’s talk about the obvious exclusions, with Dameon Pierce being the biggest. This is just an absolute miss for me. I wasn’t really a fan of his college profile and despite him having a relative path to opportunity in Houston, I felt confident that those opportunities would be weak. When you add in that he was a day-three NFL Draft pick, he was a player I wanted to avoid. While the hype for Pierce has calmed down after the beginning of the season, this is still a big miss for me as he could have been flipped for a good profit early in the year. I should have listened more to the film experts who loved the player and blamed his lack of college success on his situation.

Next is Brian Robinson, who I thought would be drafted into a place where he would get an opportunity because he had a lot of traits NFL teams look for, I just thought he wasn’t a particularly great player and that he lacked explosiveness leading me to be low on him. At a minimum, I should have had him over Isaiah Spiller and Zamir White just based on the path to opportunity.

Tyler Allgeier, who’s also missing, is basically the same case as Robinson to me and I should have had him over Spiller and White. Finally, you could argue Greg Dulcich should have been top 24, and for a few weeks, that seemed correct. Unfortunately, I think the Broncos’ offense has shown to be so bad (and no signs of that changing) to make me uncomfortable with that high of a ranking.

1.01 Breece Hall, RB NYJ

Very little needs to be said here. Hall was the clear 1.01 and I don’t think there’s any debate looking back. Kenneth Walker III can be argued now but without Hall’s injury, there’s no debate. Even with the injury, it’s a debate as to who should be ranked higher in dynasty. The process was good here even if Walker is giving him a run for his spot.

1.02 Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

In rookie drafts this off-season, unlike last year, there wasn’t a clear number one wide receiver and instead it was more of a “pick your flavor” class. At the top for me was Wilson, who I felt had the best combination of floor and ceiling due to his skillset of generating a lot of separation on his routes, being able to create after the catch, and playing bigger than he is at the catch point. I’m still happy with having him as my 1.02.

1.03 Drake London, WR ATL

Before the NFL Draft, I had London as my 1.04 behind Wilson and Treylon Burks. His college profile was impressive but I did have concerns about him having to win so many of his routes at the catch point instead of creating separation during the route. Players can still succeed with that playstyle, it’s just more difficult because you have to have a quarterback who’s comfortable throwing in tight windows. With London being drafted as the first wide receiver off the board, I was comfortable moving him ahead of Burks. Unfortunately, his situation in Atlanta has been concerning as he and Marcus Mariota have had trouble getting on the same page. If I redid my rankings today, he’d be dropping down a spot to a player I’ll mention later.

1.04 Treylon Burks, WR TEN

With Burks being the sixth wide receiver off the board in the NFL Draft, I had to move him back from 1.02 like I had him pre-draft. I didn’t want to overreact though. I still believed in his talent and thought the Titans were a great spot for him to go to with an established quarterback like Ryan Tannehill and a clear path to opportunity. It’s taken a bit of time for Burks to get going but he looks to be the clear number one in the passing game for the Titans and I’m happy I didn’t knock Burks too much following the NFL Draft. Still, as with London, I would have another wide receiver ahead of both of them now.

1.05 Kenneth Walker III, RB SEA

I always felt Walker had a chance to be the best player out of this class if he was able to develop as a receiver because I thought he was clearly the most talented runner of the bunch. Turns out it almost doesn’t matter if he does develop his receiving skills more because he’s so good as a runner and the Seahawks are dedicated to him along with being a better offense than expected. It’s a tough decision between Walker and Hall at this time. Process-wise, I still think it was correct to have Hall over Walker but I should have had Walker higher in my rookie rankings.

1.06 Jameson Williams, WR DET

As expected, Williams has missed most of this season due to recovering from his torn ACL and got his first bit of action in week 13. To no surprise, he only got a few snaps so there really isn’t anything to learn from his first NFL game. I’m excited to see what Williams is able to do to finish out this year but with there still being nothing to go off other than his prospect profile and draft status, I can’t really say if would rank him differently. I do know that I would want to have Chris Olave ahead of Williams but that’s all I can say at this time.

1.07 Chris Olave, WR NO

Here’s the wide receiver I would have over the others battling with Kenneth Walker III for the 1.03 if I could redo things. Sometimes we get too enamored with potential and ignore the ready-made asset in front of us and that was Olave. The story on Olave was he’s a fantastic route-runner with good hands and great speed but was a little small, offered very little after the catch, was a senior declare, and was outperformed by his college teammates. The issue is that we’ve seen that wide receivers of his size can still succeed, senior declares coming from the period of the time when we dealt with the pandemic will always require extra context/nuance, and Olave shouldn’t be knocked for playing with two amazing prospects in Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Olave has had lots of opportunities from day one and has made good on them. Olave may not have top end ceiling of some his classmates, but he’s already closer to his ceiling than anyone else.

1.08 Jahan Dotson, WR WAS

Dotson was quite similar to Olave to me during the evaluation process. Each undersized senior declares but Olave had the higher pedigree and had a little more athleticism. Because of this, I felt comfortable having Dotson in the same tier as Olave but solidly behind him. Dotson has had an interesting season so far producing very early but then dealing with injury before returning to form. Looking back, I’d still have Dotson close to the same spot.

1.09 Skyy Moore, WR KC

Moore had a very good college production profile but was undersized and coming from a small school. But he was an early declare which helped balance out the negatives for me. Him landing with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs was exciting and locked him into this second tier of wide receivers in my rankings. So far Moore has struggled to gain opportunities and up until recently looked like he might be a complete faceplant (and still could be). If I could redo my rankings, I would have kept Moore as an early second-round rookie pick the way I had him pre-NFL Draft.

1.10 Kenny Pickett, QB PIT

I was not a fan of Pickett entering the NFL. I just don’t think he has the arm talent to really succeed at a high level in the NFL. Him being picked in the first round of the NFL Draft wasn’t a surprise but him being the only quarterback taken in the first two rounds made me believe that NFL teams believed he was the only one who could have a long career and thus I had to concede and put him in my top 12, settling on him being my 1.10. I feel validated so far in Pickett’s time starting for the Steelers as his arm talent issues have been a problem in my opinion. If I could go back, I would have Pickett as the 1.12 at best. Basically, I would want to give concession to the fact that he has some stable value as a first-round quarterback but be low enough that I would basically never be drafting him.

1.11 George Pickens, WR PIT

I wish I had even more conviction in my ranking of Pickens. I’ve long felt Pickens could be the most talented wide receiver in this class and just had an awkward prospect profile due to injuries and the pandemic. Pickens has had a bit of an up-and-down year but he’s been looking more and more like he’ll be the Steelers’ top receiver by season’s end and has flashed his insane ability. I was happy to be in line with or ahead of consensus based on resources going into rookie drafts but I would have Pickens right in line with Jameson Williams as my WR5 or WR6 in the class if I could go back.

1.12 Rachaad White, RB TB

Despite being a senior declare, White was the clear RB3 for me in this class as he had an obvious three-down back skillset as the debatably the best receiver in the class along with breakaway long speed. Drafting White in my opinion was always about next year and beyond since the Buccaneers already had Leonard Fournette. Seeing White get opportunities and produce with them already has been great to see. Especially when you consider it’s while playing with Tom Brady who is notorious for not wanting rookie running backs next to them as they haven’t earned his trust yet. White has clearly earned Brady’s trust, remains the RB3 in the class for me, and I would have him ahead of Pickett if redoing my rankings.

So far, this class has added a lot of life to the dynasty world and it’s honestly more than I expected at this point. I feel good overall about my top 12, still it’s always important to audit yourself to try and learn and get better. Join me again next time as I take a look at the next 12 players!