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Lineup Advice, Team Tracking & Strategy: Week 13

It’s the playoff push! Have a difficult lineup decision or need a second opinion? Jeff Haverlack has you covered.

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Bye:  Cardinals, Panthers

Week 13

The injury bug played a major role in week 12 with upside plays Travis Etienne and Jeff Wilson falling after only a couple of snaps and receiver Darnell Mooney is now lost for the year, impacting Justin Fields, who also did not play in week 12. There’s just no way to sugar coat 2012, it has been a bad year for injuries and it has created a large degree of variability in the standings, not only in the NFL, but across the fantasy landscape. I can’t remember a year as difficult as 2022 for my lineup advice prognostication work as well. But some of my strategies and tendencies in helping you determine who to start and who to sit, has continued to work.

What hasn’t worked as well this year has been defensive matchup trending. Either because of parity, offensive scheming or just randomness, matchup data hasn’t been as predictive as it has in the past. It’s only one of many variables I use in calling a weekly play, but it still factors heavily. Because of this, in recent weeks, I’ve been overweighting snaps, touches and role. It may seem silly to write but players who play more snaps, have more of a role and get a greater touch percentage, have a greater chance of being difference-makers in any given week. I’ve been doing much more work t0ward identifying these players and their roles and then backing into trends when analyzing your specific questions.

Additionally, while I don’t have specific data to back this up, the injuries, and reinjuries, early into games seems to be playing more of a prominent role. Players coming back from injury have been returning to the sidelines early in games with reaggravation. It’s not uncommon of course, but it sure seems to be at a greater rate in 2022. To counter this, I’ve been favoring uninjured players whenever possible over upside players returning from injury. The downside to this is when a returning player is a high ceiling play but at risk for reinjury and I suggest leaving him on the bench. This is where it gets tricky.

In any event, as we head into week 13, I’ll be trying to do a better job of pointing out when and why I’m sitting a particular player in your specific situation to give you a better understanding of my reasoning. That said, my advice is not gospel and you should always only take it as that little voice on your shoulder offering another opinion. I work very hard at my craft, but the nature of this work means that I cannot be 100%.

Team Tracking

Week 12 is the week where I hate fantasy football and considered giving it up for fantasy pickleball instead. It happens once a year – and I have still never played pickleball, if that tells you anything.

I finished this week 4-9, bringing my total record to 90-66.

Najee Harris’ early exit likely caused me one loss, the Josh Jacobs explosion handed me another one and Miles Sanders’ big day yet another, but not enough to give me a win in a separate league. And of course, I lost Darnell Mooney and Travis Etienne in one of my long running leagues in which I have never missed the playoffs. I’m on the cusp of doing just that in 2022 though after losing Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford on top of Etienne and Mooney, there wasn’t much hope for me in week 12. Still two games to go and my roster in this league is good enough to make a late push. We’ll see.

All in all, it was only my second losing week of the season and the first one came very early in the year. 90-66 is a good record but not good enough in my estimation to send 40% of my teams to the championship game as I did in 2021. Three of my teams are out of the playoff hunt, one by design and one, an orphan pickup in its second year, wasn’t expected to make a run. The one “by design” team is a rebuild now and shaping up well as I currently hold picks 1.01, 1.02 and 1.05.

Strategy

I want to touch on a subject I’m getting more and more questions about: late-season trades.

The question goes a lot like this:  I’m a competitive team looking to make a trade to put me over the top this year, should I trade Player X for Player Y? 

Let me start by saying that I’m NEVER against a trade that is purely and clearly beneficial to your team. Each year I get a couple of head-scratching offers that are immediate-accept action items for me. But most trades are very much give and take and not so easily decided upon.

I always start off my trade advice questions with a standard response which goes a little something like this:  Trading often comes down to coaching philosophy and, in my case, I tend to favor not selling out of assets for what I hope to be a greater chance of winning it all THIS year. I always play the long game.

Coaching philosophy plays a huge role in your activities and it’s important to understand your own philosophy. For myself, after over two decades in this game, I’ve found that there remains so much variability, inconsistency and luck in week-to-week results that I’m much more likely to sit on my hands and not trade away assets I’ve been accumulating for a slight, if even that, increase in production to “put me over the top” in a given year. Again, there’s a distinction between those trades which are smash-accept and those which take much more consideration.

Generally speaking, if I have a team in the playoff hunt, I’m far more likely to let it play out without a trade which could upset my roster balance. Opposed to that is a team that is clearly at the top of the standings and would be projected to make the championship game. When I have a team in this situation, I’m far more likely to trade away draft assets for productive players in that I can be nearly certain my picks will be at the end of each round. That is an arbitrage I will seek to do as often as I can. Those who follow me know that I favor known over unknown situations. I’ll take a productive but aging vet on a competitive team all day over a late first-round rookie selection.

The moral of the story here is to know thyself. This game is rife with variability and luck, even the dynasty format. In the playoffs, even should you pull of a trade which nets you another eight fantasy points per game, you are up against top competition and playoff games are often decided by far more than eight points. Not to say it couldn’t be a difference-maker for you, but luck, variability and inconsistency make late-season trading a strategy I usually avoid.

Good luck in week 13!

Join our Discord Server

We’ve added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF’s new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we’ll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren’t missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.


Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I’m going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you’ve all come to expect from me. I’ve been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

  • Please don’t ask me to set your entire lineup
  • Put “TNF” as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
  • Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
  • Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
  • Keep your questions as brief as possible – Story questions add a lot of time
  • I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don’t worry, I’ll be back to it.
  • It’s easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I’m wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I’m still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let’s do this…

 

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Jeff Haverlack
Lineup Advice, Team Tracking & Strategy: Week 13
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Vincent Modrak
1 month ago

Howdy,

10 Team, PPR

Starting Roster Locks:
QB – Josh Allen @ NE
RB – Nick Chubb @ HOU
RB – Jonathan Taylor @ DAL
WR – Jaylen Waddle @ SF
WR – Ja’Marr Chase vs KC
TE – Pat Friermuth @ ATL
WRT – Rhamondre Stevenson vs BUF
WRT – ???

For the second WRT I have this group to choose from:
Travis Etienne @ DET
D’Andre Swift vs JAX
Amari Cooper @ HOU
D.K. Metcalf @ LAR

I’m torn between mostly Amari Cooper (bad matchup per 4for4) and Travis Etienne (slightly less poor matchup per 4for4 and injury concerns). D’Andre Swift has a juicy matchup vs JAX but his limited touches are too risky I feel. DK Metcalf vs LAR isn’t great either.

Any rosters swaps or flex help would be appreciated! I’m currently sitting fourth and am playing the first place team so this is a big “statement” game for me.

Last edited 1 month ago by Vincent Modrak
Vincent Modrak
Reply to  Vincent Modrak
1 month ago

Also, in case Travis Etienne is ruled out, I have JaMycal Hasty rostered as well.

Vincent Modrak
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you, sir!

N B
1 month ago

TNF – PPR
Gabe Davis or Chris Godwin
Thank you!

1 month ago

Hey Jeff, I really need your advice. 10 team, PPR, 1 QB. Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris could both potentially be out for me this week, so I want to troubleshoot a bit. If they were out, I would need to replace one of them (Harris is usually on the bench). Assuming they are both out, do I go Sutton @ Baltimore, or dare I play Kareem Hunt at Houston against the worst run defense in the league?
I guess what I am really asking as I write this is, do you think Watson taking over as the Cleveland QB will benefit Hunt enough to warrant a flex spot this week? Or play it safe with Sutton?
If I win, I clinch a bye. Talk to me Goose.

Sebastian Marino
1 month ago

Looking for some help on who to start at the Flex…
Jakobi Meyers who is playing Thursday home vs Buffalo but injured
Josh Palmer playing Sunday at Vegas 4:25pm, may have Williams back
Cordarrelle Patterson playing Sunday home vs Pitt at 1pm, volume has been iffy

Thanks!

Dale Norwood
1 month ago

TNF
Hello Jeff. First, as I have said before thank for you doing this!
SF QB2…Heinicke, Tannehill, M. Jones. It is not a must win but will put me in a better playoff position.
I am leaning Heinicke. Really worried about Tannehill playing in Philly and not sure I trust Jones vs Bills.

William Morrison
1 month ago

Hi Jeff,

I just lost Mooney and Etienne too (in all my leagues). Brutal. I guess things have simplified a little in choosing lineups at this point (10 team, SF, half-PPR):

Which three would you play this week of these four:
Swift
Etienne
Jeff Wilson
Rachaad White

Planning to just close my eyes and pray this week.

Thanks!

William Morrison
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks! That’s the trade off I was thinking about too. Don’t love the 49ers matchup.

Mark D'Angelo
1 month ago

0.5 PPR!
Need 3: CMC, Tony Pollard, AJ Brown, Joe Mixon/Perine, Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson (Good problem to have…but a problem nonetheless. CMC has been very frustrating but I can’t sit him right? CMC, Mixon, AJ Brown? Hard to sit Pollard but maybe it comes down to who has the highest cieling.
1 TE: Hurst, Knox, Henry (Oof, surprise me lol)
1 Flex: Jamaal Williams, Singletary, Garrett Wilson (Wilson I think)
Thank you!!

Mark D'Angelo
Reply to  Mark D'Angelo
1 month ago

Oops, sorry. TNF**

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

TNF
I feel your pain Kemo. Also my worst week so far at 3-7. The only good thing is that I didn’t lose too much ground in the playoff hunt dropping to 4th in a couple of leagues.

Great read in your intro on trades. Where I needed a WR, I traded a late 2nd and JRob for Lockett. This morning I was offered Hopkins, Jamaal Williams, and McKenzie for a late 2nd, Claypool, and Duvernay. I hated to lose Claypool who has great talent if he can keep his head screwed on right and should be #1 in Chi. But adding Hop and Williams on a team tied for 3rd and who will lose Kamara and Aaron Jones to byes next week, was too good of a deal to pass up. Solid advice.

Asked this last week but opposing teams change along with their DST. On a team tied for 1st and the trade team mentioned above, I can’t afford a loss against my opponent this week and not finishing in the top 6 for the all play in week 14.

Josh Allen or Tua this week?
Josh Allen or Burrow? (I have Diggs there as well)

Great choices to have but they can be difficult every once in a while.

Thx Kemo.

sbreit
1 month ago

Thanks for the article, I always enjoy. Especially when it comes to strategy. Always play the long game, understanding that with the right approach, discipline, and focus, I will give myself the best chance to come out on top.
FWIW, pickleball is actually pretty fun

Raynall21
1 month ago

****TNF*****
PPR and I need 1: Singletary, Aiyuk, Jakobi Meyers, Pacheco or Burks

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

Hey Jeff, who do you see as the handcuff in NE now: Strong or Harris? And CHI: Ebner or DEvans? Thanks!

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff. In re-reading my question, It might not have been clear to you which Harris I was referring to. With DHarris out, maybe for a while, do you see the cuff to Rhamondre now as Strong or KHarris?

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you sir, I’m leaning that way too.

Steve Reyland
1 month ago

TNF
Hi Jeff,
Standard scoring, PPR
I need t start 3 of these guys.
Gabe Davis, Courtland Sutton, Treylon Burks, Rachaad White, Latavius Murray
My lineup starters are Davis, Sutton, and White. Not sure if Burks or White can be trusted yet. I don’t like Murry’s matchup, but he is getting volume.
TE
Everett or Njoku – Leaning Njoku this week.
Thanks
Steve

James Richardson
1 month ago

Trade question…12 Team, 25 man roster, 2QB flex. . I have 2 first round picks in 2023. Currently in a rebuild and need RBs. I have James Robinson, Jeff Wilson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Allgier, Kyren Williams. I have a chance for Antonio Gibson but concerned he is too inconsistent and too much part of a committee to be trading for. I had considered trading a late 2nd rounder in 2023 or trading Calvin Ridley for Gibson. Should I even consider this? Thanks.

Patrick Hanley
1 month ago

Howdy Jeff! Hope you are still fat & Happy after Turkey day (Standard Scoring)

My only decision this week is at RB. I will start
A Jones at RB1, assuming he goes.
Need to pick one (1) from these for my RB2:

* M Sanders vs Ten
* AJ Dillon @ Chi (he’s dinged up too)
* D Swift vs Jac
* Kyren Williams Vs Sea
Slim Pickens. Sanders sounds logical but Ten is rough. Thanks for your input!

Jason Proctor
1 month ago

Hi Jeff!

TNF

1/2 point PPR
Sit one please
Rhamondre, Dalvin, Saquon

Thank you!

Jason Proctor
Reply to  Jason Proctor
1 month ago

Sorry meant Stevenson, Cook or Aaron Jones

Eastman Tiu
1 month ago

HI Jeff!

Well my dynasty team has locked up a bye for the playoffs already. However, my seasonal is very dicey! Need a win to keep my hopes alive!

0.5 PPR. Need one RB, two WR, one flex. I really hate to ask for 4 guys but the match-ups are not good this week.

RB Wilson at niners
RB Pacheco at bengals
RB Z White (if Jacobs is out) vs chargers

WR Sutton at Ravens
WR Davis at Patriots
WR Boyd vs Chiefs
WR Burks at eagles.

I’m leaning Wilson, Pacheco, Sutton and Davis. If Jacobs is out, I’m not sure who I’d bench. My WRs seem like a coin toss every week.

Thanks!
ET

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

TNF
PPR
1) TE Knox tonight or Moreau on Sunday?

2) Starting Josh at QB with CMC and Stevenson for my 2 RB’s. WR’s are Diggs, StBrown, and Aiyuk. Need two for my flex slots from Jeff Wilson, Lazard, DemarcusR, and James Cook (assuming Mike Williams is still out). Wilson is going up his old tough SF DST and Mostert may be back. Demarcus missed out on two potential TD’s last week but up vs Den D. And finally do you think the Bills may try to run more vs NEng with the iffy weather tonight. Am I overthinking all of this?? Trying to stay in at least a tie for 1st here but hopeful to move back on top so every point counts

Thx Kemo.

Dale Norwood
1 month ago

TNF
Jeff, you previously answered my question about my SF position between Tannnehil, Mac Jones and Heinicke but forgot to mention. I have Sutton, Swift, Shultz and Kittle that I could plug in. I know the rule of thumb is to always play a QB in the SF spot, but as you noted before, my choices are not good.

Thanks

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

TNF

PPR
Literally forgot I picked up McKenzie as part of my Hopkins trade on Tuesday. Too much of a risk to play him as my #3 WR over Lazard?

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Slipped in McKenzie with a minute to spare. Decided to swap with Moreau on the other question.

1 month ago

Hey Jeff, 10 team PPR, 1 QB. It sounds like Najee Harris is healthy this week, and he is going against the worst run defense (Atlanta). I have Jeff Wilson vs San Francisco (2nd best run defense). I am really torn, but leaning Wilson because he is in such a unique offense, but part of me says Harris. I am not buying the Najee Harris/Trent Richardson comparisons that I have been hearing about. Who would you start?

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks, and good luck to you this week.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Hi Kemo,
I agree with your intro and after a season worst 3-7 record, like you I’m hoping to regroup this week. Several teams are just hanging in there for playoff contention and a win is required to stick around. Week 14 is “all play” so anything can happen there.

PPR
1) With Juwan Johnson pretty iffy and a bye next week, I need to pick up a TE with my choices on waivers being Hooper, Trautman, and Akins. I picked up Hooper in one other league for a similar situation, but can still change out with waivers. Any suggestions?

2) After a 6-0 start, my returning champ has now lost 5 of it’s last 7 but hanging onto 4th place due to points. Looking to start Jacobs as my #1 RB and Jeff Wilson #2. I need two flex from Dameon Pierce, Mostert (if healthy), and Cobb. Pierce has died over the past 2 weeks but running against Cleve DST which hasn’t been great vs RB’s. Mostert may split carries with Wilson but I have started both earlier when the matchup was better. And it’s either Hollins or Cobb for my third WR if I don’t flex one of them. Could really use a win here the way it’s been going even playing against the 12th place team.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Harrison Bryant is also available with Njoku out. Just not sure with the QB change.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Juwan is now out as of late today. Hooper, Bryant, and Akins are all risky but I need a warm body in that TE spot. I may have to trade for one this week since trading ends next Sunday morning.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Got it. Thx as always. Was leaning Pierce on a comeback and Mostert. I’ll go after Bryant in a few minutes on our BB waivers.

Brad McCaleb
1 month ago

Hey, Jeff!
12 team, Standard Superflex
Starting Herbert, Hurst, Ekeler, K. Allen, and Lockett. Would like your opinion on second RB between Sanders @ TEN, Kamara @ TB, Perine @ KC and Hunt @ HOU. Also need a flex from those backs or Z. Jones @ DET, Josh Palmer @ LV, or DeAndre Carter @ LV.
Thanks for the advice.

Brad McCaleb
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you Sir.

James Richardson
1 month ago

Hello Jeff…In a 10 team full ppr 1QB league I need to play 4 out of this group (at least 1 RB but not more than 2RBs). Mixon, Perine, Jaylen Warren, Allgeier, Elijah Moore, Diontae Johnson, Skye Moore, ARSB, DPJ, or Mack Hollins. I figure Mixon (or Perine if Mixon cannot go) and ARSB for certain but not sure about the other 2. Thanks Jeff.

bmoe21
1 month ago

Hey Jeff! Thanks for all the help this year!
1PPR
I’m kind of hurting at my RB2 position this week with Foreman on a bye. My options are Kyren Williams or Zonovan Knight. I’m pretty sure Michael Carter is not playing tomorrow. I also have Cam Akers and Ty Johnson. But I think the other 2 will get more touches. What do you think??

Kris H
1 month ago

10 Team ½ point PPR
Need two of six RBs:
S Barkley vs WAS, K Hunt @ HOU, R While vs NOS, A Dillion @ CHI, G Edwards vs DEN and K Williams vs SEA. Barkley is the lock but toss up after that.
Need three of four WRs:
C Lamb vs IND, JuJu @ CIN, K Allen @ LVR and M Evans @ NOS. Thinking Allen and Lamb seem to be the locks. The last spot is tough with Evans struggling and hit or miss with KC WRs.
Thanks in advance

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

Hey Jeff,
1) Dak or DeShaun? 6pts for TD’s
2) Standard scoring – DCook vs NYJ or KWalker vs LAR
3) Standard scoring need one: Everett vs LV, Hurst vs KC, Dulcich vs BAL or Conklin vs MINN
4) one D/ST from: SEA (vs rams), PHI (vs tenn) or SF (vs miami w/both OT’s out)
5) PPR must bench one from: GWilson, DCook, ETN, Tee Higgins or Monty
6) PPR – DK or Keenan?
7) who do you think is the CMC handcuff: TDP, JDavis or Tevin?
thanks!

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks so much Jeff, always appreciate you sharing your time and process. Good luck this week!

James Richardson
1 month ago

In a 12 team, half ppr, 1QB…should I play Pickens, Devontae Smith, or Scary Terry?
Thank you sir.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Tampa or Wash DST?
Jets or Seahawks DST?

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

One more new wrinkle –

PPR
Had penciled in Cobb and Gallup as my two flex with only RB Mason as an option. Jameson Williams is now active but I have no idea what kind of action he might see in his first game. Any thoughts on putting him in the lineup or do we wait a week and see how it goes? Team is in a tied for 3rd in the playoff hunt as of now.

Thx Kemo.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Back again….

PPR
Would love to have this problem in all of my leagues:

RB’s – Kamara, A.Jones, D. Pierce, Walker, Jamaal Williams
Need two of them for RB and two more for my flex slots. Who gets left out this week? This won’t be as tough of an issue with Kamara/Jones on their bye in week 14.

WR – Already penciled in Adams, Lockett, plus McKenzie from TNF so I’m fine here.
DamarcusR and Lazard are my remaining two WR’s but I feel the touches from the RB’s may override my using them as a flex. Your wisdom please!

Thx Kemo.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

After “knowing” you here for quite a while, I realize you get busy doing this for us so this is a double check. I had a question from late last night regarding TE waivers and a lineup issue. It may have slipped by. Can you take another look? Could use your input. Waivers are early at 8 AM. Thx.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

You as well Kemo. Trying for a last minute waiver pickup of Seattle DST. Would you consider playing them over Dallas today?

This is my 8th place team. To make the last playoff spot, all I have to do to win week 13 and 14 and have the four teams ahead of me lose their next two. Stop laughing…. I’m down on points so a tie won’t help with any of them. Stop laughing….

🙂

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thx. Having gotten Jamaal in a trade that included Hopkins earlier this week, I suddenly have a nice RB room if I make the playoffs and if Pierce makes a return to what he was. For today, it will be Kamara/Jones for RB and Jamaal/Walker for the two flex. Watch Pierce go for 20 pts……..

My original thought was between Jamaal and Pierce, being a bit worried about Williams getting yardage but not a TD.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

🙂

George Holmes
1 month ago

Hi Jeff thanks for the help! 1pt ppr

I have an open flex spot and really don’t know which way to go… JuJu, London, Palmer, J Wilson.

Go back to Fields or start Trevor Lawrence in a possible shootout vs Det?

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Late thoughts here …

1) Playing for pride only in this league. Keep Deebo in my lineup or sub in Devonta from the early game? My only other choice is Jameson (early game) and I have no one from a later game to plug in if Deebo is inactive.

2) Picked up Quez W on early waivers this AM. Goedert will be out until next week or maybe week 15. Would you play him over Hollins or Cobb today?

Think I should have gone to church this morning…. Looking for a goat to sacrifice. A win might get four teams into a playoff slot while a loss will probably drop them out.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

It was Devonta Smith and I did put him in for Deebo.
For some reason the HOA isn’t fond of chickens or goats in our retirement community. Maybe I can catch an iguana or quail….Some damn coyote beat me to a roadrunner earlier. Said he’s been trying for years…..
Thx.

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