Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Week Ten
Last week went well with our new goal of looking for deeper meaningful dynasty upside. Especially glad I included the honorable mentions. Let’s check in with those we mentioned last week and push on to find some more dynasty gems in the data.
First up, as always, your weekly reminder that I’m collecting the weekly data (again,) and you can find it here.
Now, let’s get on with it.
Last Week
Let’s keep it up. Again, we’re not looking for immediate weekly upside, so much as trying to notice good players and continue, rebuilding or developing a fantasy utility that could be undervalued by others.
Because that’s a little vague, and since we try to provide as much actionable information as possible here at DLF, I’ve decided to add a section to each player’s mention basically answering the obvious question: What does this mean? Or more directly, what use is that information?
So, let’s look at a few more.
This Week Notables
DJ Moore, WR CAR
We mentioned Moore back in week seven as someone who had increased in target share just before and after Christian McCaffrey’s trade. That trend has continued. His week nine 1.1 PPR points likely didn’t show this off, but his 20% target share increased that distance whereas his three-week target share is 4.8% higher than his season-long target share. He is currently WR41 but his three-week average of 13.8 points per game (PPG) is likely closer to the truth.
How is this useful: DJ Moore is now “old” in the mind of some dynasty players. If you need points this year, you could trade off some years to maintain or improve your team’s PPG with a team focused more on building.
I’d try trading less proven younger wide receivers, but even a promising rookie could be viable if Moore’s top 24 upside is important to your roster. Not to mention that he should be viable for the next three years, despite dynasty being hyper-sensitive to age.
Sell young upside, for the proven floor, and possibly increase your WR3/4s PPG for the second half of this season.
Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN
Jeudy has drawn close to Courtland Sutton in target share over the team’s last three weeks. This might be something I’m just catching up to, to be fair, because I’ve been expecting more out of Sutton all year given his volume.
The team didn’t play last week, and the bye week can bring team offensive changes. But for the two weeks before their bye it was Jeudy gaining ground, not Sutton.
How is this useful: While Jeudy has been a somewhat disappointing “sleeper” in dynasty each of the last three years, he has always performed well based on his stats like Yards per Route Run (YRR).
He is only 23 years old. While I don’t “want” to “get rid” of Jeudy, I think his recent climb and age could make him very tempting for dynasty players who are maybe less contending this year.
Again, he’s a good young player, but his production has always lagged behind his value, and the recent upwards trend could well make an opportunity for a competitive team to target an older player with more upside right now.
Is Davante Adams on a mid-ranked team? Is the Cooper Kupp team suffering from all their young running backs being hurt, or just being Najee Harris? In that situation, you could increase your upside while providing them a younger player with upside who’s currently “trending” in a positive direction, even if you must add something to make it happen.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
Boyd hasn’t lit the world on fire since the loss of Ja’Marr Chase (because Chase took his targets with him, but I digress). However, he has seen a 3.4% target share over the last three weeks and is averaging 5.4 targets a game. He has a target in the red zone each of the last three games (two total in the six games before that) and has 20 point upside in the right game script as we saw in weeks three and seven this year.
How is this useful: At 27 years old he makes for a lower dynasty value plug-and-play option for a competitive team.
Honorable mentions
Josh Palmer, WR LAC
Palmer was an interesting third-year breakout candidate for some of us this off-season, and there was reason to hope after getting eight targets in week two and nine targets in week three. In week four, he seemed to suffer an ankle injury (it was reportedly re-taped during half-time, and he was limited in practice the following week). In week five he managed six targets, then 12 targets in week six despite suffering a concussion on the first play of the game.
Now don’t let me mislead you. It’s clear he’s a viable flex option but it’s heavily dependent on the availability of Keenan Allen and Mike Willaims. Allen was out last week, and there is no news on his status this week against San Francisco as of yet.
How is this useful: Honestly it’s not very useful. I don’t think I’d trade more than a third-round rookie pick for a potential flex or bye week fill in and I’m not sure he’ll be on your waiver wire. However, his usage and viability could be missed in your league so I’m mentioning it.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR NYG
Robinson has seen the biggest target share increase of any rookie over the last three weeks (3.2% increase, although that ties with Garrett Wilson) his Expected Points Per Game (EPG) have also started to creep towards relevance, 8.7 over that time.
While I’m not sure he’s a very exciting start right now, if he keeps on his current pace he could finish as a top 36 wide receiver as a rookie with a significant target share.
How is this useful: If you’re not trading for points this year, Robinson is a potential addition to a trade for his future value.
Honorable Sells?
Parris Campbell, WR IND
Campbell has seen the largest target share increase over the last three weeks (5.4% increase, averaging 18.9% over the last three weeks). He’s been plagued by injuries since joining the NFL he has shown upside when healthy.
His 11 and 12 targets in weeks six and seven came back down to earth, but a 4-6 target per game is not terrible.
But he’s also scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks (regression!) and only has a red zone role touch share (9.8% of the team overall touches indie the 20-yard line.)
If anyone is buying a post-hype sleeper, I’m selling it.
Allen Robinson, WR LAR
A lot of Robinson’s numbers over the last three weeks could make you want to re-ignite the hope for his re-emergence. But it’s mostly touchdowns.
He has seen a 4% target share increase over the last three weeks, but his season-long role is only 14%. What’s more, he owns a disproportionate percentage of the red zone touches with 19.1% this season with at least one target inside the 10-yard line since week two.
For comparison, Cooper Kupp has 17%, CeeDee Lamb and DJ Moore on the low end for a team’s WR1 have under 10%, and Justin Jefferson has 20%.
In other words, Robinson is a threat to catch a touchdown every week he plays, but if he doesn’t he busts.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for right now. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you next week.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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