Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Week Eight
Welcome back. Let’s dig into the 2022 data and see who still has more upside based on per-game opportunity changes over the last three weeks.
I’m collecting the weekly data throughout the season and posting it on a sheet.
Now, let’s get on with it.
The Signal
This is the last week where we should expect almost half the top 12 players at the wide receiver position to be uncertain. Running back has already become more stable (reliable) and the tight end will take about a couple of weeks to get there.
On the other hand, players already over most per-game thresholds at this point in a season are very likely to finish in the top 12 at both running back and wide receiver (close to 90% for both positions). Again, tight end lags that mark for a few more weeks.
Of course, the rub is that very few players over that threshold are outside the top 12 by now. This is where our tracking of volume and target share comes in since we know early signal remains relevant by the end.
In short, these players are easy to lock into the top 12 right now: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Davante Adams.
DeAndre Hopkins would make the list but with a one-game sample, I’m holding his name off the list, for now.
All the other spots are all open to change, and that’s where we dig in.
Our List
Paying attention earlier pays off now. Ranking players by stats current stats is one thing, but we can highlight those who have continuously piqued our interest with their consistent volume since week one.
Below is a list of players outside of the top 12 who have increased their Route Rate (per Pro Football Focus) over the last three weeks. I’ve highlighted those from our previous articles.
AJ Brown, WR PHI
Brown has seen a decrease in target share over the last three weeks but has also been running routes more than his season-long average. While DeVonta Smith has increased his target share (at Brown’s expense), Brown has increasingly been involved when on the field to compensate. This is a season of proven producers and disappointing breakouts all around. I expect Brown to bounce back from his underperformance over the last three weeks.
Deebo Samuel, WR SF
Brandon Aiyuk has been showing out recently and it’d be easy to explain that with a faux quarterback correlation narrative. However, Samuel has still been leading in overall volume and has been “unlucky” or inefficient with that volume. This is much more likely to be game and play-specific than a trend in overall production. I think the points swing back his way before the end.
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
The same story for all three of our studs this week. Last week, Jerry Jeudy increased his participation in the offense. Over the last three weeks, he has seen a 14.7% snap share increase from his season-long average and a 3.4% target share bump. However, Sutton has increased his Route Rate and has just been disappointing on a higher, 24%, target share.
Matchups bring ups and downs, but volume wins the day. I think Sutton still has more upside in this offense moving forward.
DJ Moore, WR CAR
Moore’s target share and Route Rate have increased over the last three weeks. But that began before the Christian McCaffrey trade. Moore has had a Route Rate of around 100% each of the last four weeks and his target share last week (47%) was followed by an elevated target share the week before (33%). I don’t think he has top-12 upside but I wanted to highlight that his overall PPG upside has improved (and it’s not just the McCaffrey departure).
Still hopeful
Only two of our remaining week three players didn’t make the list. Both maintained their roles and PPG production, however.
CeeDee Lamb is still able to make a run for his top-12 breakout season this year.
DK Metcalf is still prone to up-and-down swings of his playmaking upside. However last week’s injury was a blow to his fantasy campaign this season. The team is reliably unreliable in its expectations of players’ return from injury, so don’t expect much useful information before he plays (or doesn’t) again this year.
Rookie Snapshot
Chris Olave is the only rookie currently placing in the top 24 at the wide receiver position this year. He’s also averaging 18 PPG over the last three weeks which speaks to some serious upside over the second half of the season.
Alec Pierce, Wan’Dale Robinson, and George Pickens are the only other rookies averaging double-digit fantasy points over the last three weeks. They look like they could make a run to finish inside the top 36 if not the top 24 this year before the end. All are viable starters in most fantasy football formats, and rookies are the only group of players who average higher PPG in the latter half of the season than in the first half historically.
Drake London and Garrett Wilson are, at this point, going to have to improve to finish in the top 36. That’s a vital mark we should hope they can reach for their potential in year two.
Rashid Shaheed is on the wait-and-see list having only recorded one game. However, overperforming his volume to produce 7 of his 10 total PPR points last week (on his 3% target share) doesn’t fill me with confidence.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for right now. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you after week eight.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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