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The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact of the James Robinson Jets Trade

We break down the trade of James Robinson to the Jets.

The Jets are a surprising 5-2 and are contending for a playoff spot for the first time in recent memory. Unfortunately, they lost standout rookie Breece Hall to a torn ACL this week and needed to make a move in order to stay as competitive as possible. I speculated earlier in the day the Jets could go the trade route and they did indeed go after one of the players mentioned, sending a conditional sixth round pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for running back James Robinson. The move is a big one in dynasty leagues, so let’s reset the stage here in terms of player value.

James Robinson, RB NYJ

A true fantasy football legend, Robinson broke the record for most rushing yards by an undrafted player with 1,070 in 2020, becoming one of the best waiver wire picks or late round rookie draft fliers of all-time. That same year featured 49 catches for another 344 yards and a total of ten touchdowns, making him a surprise league winner in many formats. Going into last season, much was again expected from Robinson after rookie Travis Etienne was lost in the preseason. Unfortunately, Robinson himself went down late in the season with a torn achilles tendon after being productive for most of the season, despite playing on a terrible team with an even worse Head Coach in the form of Urban Meyer.

Fast forward to this season and it seemed Robinson was on track for yet another solid campaign as he posted double-digit fantasy points in the first three games, looking very healthy in the process. However, Etienne worked his way from being the backup to the starter and basically made Robinson expendable, as indicated by him receiving no carries and only playing four snaps this week.

In New York, Robinson should have every opportunity to re-establish himself as a solid running back in the league and in dynasty circles as well.  While he’s going to undoubtedly share carries with the likes of Michael Carter and Ty Johnson, Robinson should be the lead back if he looks as healthy as he did the first three weeks of the season. This is a solid investment for the Jets as Robinson could conceivably start this year, then hit restricted free agency at the end of the year. If the Jets simply want to use him as a rental, they can. If he performs well, they could re-sign him and bring Hall along slowly next season.

Regardless, Robinson’s ADP isn’t going to take the nosedive we all expected after Etienne established himself as the future in Jacksonville the past couple of weeks and he should at least be a serviceable option again moving forward.

 

Michael Carter, RB NYJ

Well, that was quick. Carter was the starter for the Jets for about eight hours after they learned Hall was lost for the season. Now, he’s back in the mix with another running back. Still, he should have a little more standalone value now as Hall was well on his way to rendering him totally useless. Still, this is a bit of a buzzkill and the acquisition of Robinson shows the Jets just simply don’t have faith in him to do the job on his own.

Ty Johnson, RB NYJ

It was looking as if Johnson was going to be a solid sleeper, but he’s more of a dart throw now than anything else. Still, we don’t know just how the Jets are planning on deploying their running backs and Johnson could find himself in the mix. He certainly looks to have more short-term value with Hall out for the year, regardless of the Robinson addition.

Travis Etienne, RB JAX

If you’re looking for a big winner, here you go. Etienne now has the Jacksonville backfield all to himself and thus far, he’s been as advertised this year. On the season, Etienne has a total of 415 rushing yards, 14 catches, and 151 receiving yards. While the single touchdown on his resume is disappointing, he’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry and no longer has Robinson around to siphon goal line carries from him. It’s clearly his time now and he’s firmly in the RB1 mix moving forward. The window to buy low on him has emphatically slammed shut and any ADP loss he had at the beginning of the season will now be gained back, with Etienne likely cracking the top 20 as a result.

JaMycal Hasty, RB JAX

If you’re looking for some insurance, Hasty has some value now as well, He’s shown flashes before and the Jaguars obviously like him enough to make Robinson expendable and use him as the backup to Etienne. He’s a very interesting add in dynasty leagues now as he’s one injury away from real value again. Don’t discount Hasty’s ability as it was clearly one more reason the Jags were able to move on from J-Rob.

Snoop Conner, RB JAX

The sleeper on the Jags is now Conner. Selfishly, I want him to ascend and be valuable just for all the possible Snoop Dogg puns we could have as a result, but that’s probably asking too much in the short-term. Still, you could do worse for a back-of-the-roster stash.

 

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Ken Kelly
The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact of the James Robinson Jets Trade
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Scott deVilleneuve
1 month ago

Any concern that there is something going on with Robinson’s health? With all the RB injuries it seems like it would make sense for teams to have a solid 2nd RB on their roster. I know Hasty has looked decent, but Robinson has a couple of seasons of proven production and looked better than decent to start the year. As an UDFA he’s on a minimum contract so there can’t be any financial incentive for letting him go. With the Rams, Broncos, and maybe Panthers all in need of an upgrade at RB one might think that if they really wanted to move Robinson they could have done better than a 6th round pick. Almost seems like they were willing to take the 1st offer they could get. Maybe I’m reading too much between the lines, just curious as to other’s thoughts.

Charles Day
1 month ago

What’s up with the ADP graph for Etienne? Surely his ADP hasn’t fallen this month.

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