Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week Six
Welcome! This is a weekly series where we look at player regression trends week by week.
Throughout the season I collect weekly data and post it on a sheet here.
Enough preamble, nerd up!
Last Week
If you’re wondering why our percentages change a little each time, it’s because some of the stats don’t come in as early as I update. But I also found that I was forgetting to remove players who don’t play the next week (particularly important this week).
I’m not just tracking the table but the week-over-week names and ranks, and encourage you to check them out.
Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen the wide receiver position invert in their regression trend and start toward our 2021 hit rates in both Sits and Starts. However, I still think we’ve been inordinately unlucky in wide receiver starts this year, and the tight end position has been outright abysmal.
I got in the weeds on this topic and I don’t want to derail our purpose here, so I’ll just link this thread.
But no matter how weird 2022 wants to be, we are going to plow on believing that the arc of this season will bend toward the historical trends. Or to put it more bluntly, they can’t keep catching or running for 50-yard touchdowns forever.
We were also unlucky enough to see two of our three tight end starts to sit out for injury and Gerald Everett underperformed his volume which should have placed him top 12 but ended up placing him 21st overall. Both of our running back misses (Aaron Jones and Khalil Herbert finished as top 36 players but outside the top 24) did improve from the previous week. Wide receiver continued to be plagued by (presumably) subpar quarterback play.
Sits continue to hit. Although Gabriel Davis continually putting up top 12 games on top 70 volume still stings, DeVonta Smith continues to turn a top 30 workload into top 24 points on occasion. Tevin Coleman turned out not to be a top-12 running back despite his blow-up week, as we expected, and Kenneth Walker is for real. Our hit rates are probably better than the table since we are avoiding these landmines, but we’re not going to edit the results because consistency matters in building a better process.
And with that, rather than a lengthy review, let’s move on to this week’s results.
Onwards!
Should Produce More… Moving Forward
Following on from last week it’s worth remembering that our purpose here is somewhat moot in dynasty. It’s not like waiver claims can garner you many top 24 players even if they have been underperforming. Trades, while possible for underperforming players, are rarely an every-week occurrence.
But despite our lower hit rate in starts, it’s rarely worth “panicking” about players who underperform in our leagues in the one-week long term.
With that in mind, here are the players I continue to start.
Wide Receiver
All four of our wide receivers should produce more “startable” weeks than most moving forward.
All but Curtis Samuel are due touchdown regression. The average yards per touchdown of the position is around 168. But DK Metcalf (203), DJ Moore (243), and Darnell Mooney (241, and yet to score a touchdown at all) are due to score based on the number of yards they are putting out.
Samuel is close to the average (169), he also has 18% of the team’s red zone touches and eight rush attempts for 50 yards, providing a much better floor than his week six 2.6 fantasy points suggest. But is more questionable given his changing quarterback situation, so I’m placing him more as a flex option at best.
DJ Moore also averaged less than 9 expected points per game over the last two weeks and is more likely to continue to struggle, Still, his season-long numbers suggest he should still bounce back later.
DK Metcalf is an every-week start on any roster.
Darnell Mooney is, in my opinion, a decent trade target in dynasty. He’s in only his third season and his recent production suggests his value could bounce back moving forward.
Running Back
While Raheem Mostert was a disappointment last week (despite my write-up last week, almost as if the NFL doesn’t care what I think, weird), he still had the most fantasy potential at the position on this roster last week, the game script just wasn’t there.
Both Aaron Jones and Kareem Hunt suffer from lower volume and depend on efficiency for spike weeks. However, that still places them firmly in the top 24 running backs likely to have a usable week this season. Both have finished in the top five at the position once. Unfortunately, their current team workload makes them upside second running backs, not flex options. But I don’t think anyone should panic based on last week.
Tight End
I don’t believe anything that happened at tight end last week (except of course for Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews).
Everyone on our (sad-looking) tight end list is more statable than Mike Gesicki (the top-scoring tight end in week one).
Both Evan Engram and Gerald Everett are streamers at best right now. However, they should still be expected to regularly finish in the top 12 this year.
David Njoku regressed last week but he s still getting enough volume to start in dynasty leagues.
Dallas Goedert is due at least two touchdowns based on his yardage, despite lower red zone usage (357 versus a position average of 170). I‘d start him with confidence every week (except when he’s on a bye!)
Won’t Produce Next Week
There are a few names I think don’t belong because their production is understandable based on recent events (which their volume ranks haven’t caught up) like Greg Dulcich, George Kittle, and Kenneth Walker. Also, some players’ team situations suggest they have at least consistent flex value like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandon Aiyuk, and DeVonta Smith.
Hunter Henry, TE NE
The lowest percentage of top 12 players by week six at any position to finish in the top 12 is at tight end. In other words, expect more upset and change at the position from this point on than any other (except mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, obviously).
Over the last three weeks, Henry has averaged 7.6 EPG, two more potential points a week than his season-long average, and his production over the last two weeks has also climbed (9 PPR, 16 PPR). It’s a small sample, and not much to go on, but we have seen Henry be productive in this offense before and with the return of Tyquan Thornton may have opened up more room. Henry has logged two weeks with a 97% snap share (79% season-long average).
His route participation has remained stable – around 69% of routes run when he is on the field for passing plays – but his on-field presence has increased.
Tough call, but he’s worth keeping an eye on.
Greg Dulcich, TE DEN
Dulcich recorded the first stats of his rookie season, so we don’t have a great sample to judge. However, he already has a higher target share than Albert Okwuegbunam (8.3%). Efficiency, or production, can often lead to volume increases. We must hope that Dulcich’s 1.6 yards per route run also encourages the coaching staff to keep getting him involved.
As it is, they had him very involved in the receiving game with a 93% route participation (similar to Okwuegbunam’s 89%).
George Kittle, TE SF
Kittle has only played four games this season and has gradually averaged higher and higher usage, culminating in his 98% snap share. He’s now averaging a 20% target share, again.
I think it’s silly not to consider his recent usage trend sustainable after missing the first two weeks of the season given his proven history in this offense.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for this week. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you next week.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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