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Lineup Advice, Team Tracking, Trends & Strategy – Week Seven

Week seven! As always, I’m answering every question, every week! New this year are my weekly dynasty team tracking and strategy thoughts.

PLEASE READ FULL POST EACH WEEK!

Did you know: We have multiple chats going on each Sunday morning, including Lineup Advice, with multiple DLF'ers hosting. Join in!

Bye:  Bills, Rams, Viking, Eagles

Week Seven

A little bit of a brutal week last week across the position matrix.

The following assumes PPR scoring:

The running back group was led by Deon Jackson and Rhamondre Stevenson, followed closely by Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey. At receiver, the usual suspects are represented at the very top though Chase Claypool came is as the WR6 and Juju Smith-Schuster the WR7. The big surprise of the week was New England's rookie speedster, Tyquan Thornton who scored twice, once as a runner.

At tight end, three of the top five weekly players were none other than Tavis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle. Mike Gesicki is your TE1 and is said to be on the trading block while Robert Tonyan (TE4) is starting to get targets as the Packers struggle on offense.

Remember, bad things can happen to good teams. Keep your wits about you, avoid knee-jerk reactions and don't get  "cute" with your lineup decisions.

We've added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF's new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we'll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren't missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games. While I'd love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don't see a repeat of 2021. That doesn't mean I'm not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13.

Week six was okay with an 8-5 record, bringing my total record to 47-31 across the 78 total games. I had a full six games to be decided in Monday's nights affair and it mostly came down to Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Austin Ekeler. I went 2-4 on the Monday night games, mostly because Russell Wilson is inept thus far this year and is taking Jerry Jeudy with him. Both quarterbacks had relatively poor nights and I took two losses due to their lack of production. If not for that, it could have been a stellar week.

Of my 13 teams, I only have one with a sub .500 record, that one sitting at 2-4. Point scoring with this team isn't terrible but I don't believe it's going to be competitive without a bit of help. On the verge of a rebuild in all likelihood but stranger things could happen and I'm letting it play out for another couple of weeks.

Bye weeks are going to hit hard this week and played a big role in week six. In one of my primary leagues, I may not be able to field a lineup without at least a couple of additions via the waiver wire. On the positive side, getting players such as Dameon Pierce and Derrick Henry back on the field will help immensely. Hoping to get positive news for D'Andre Swift.

Strategy and Trends

This is what I posted for week one:

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven't updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won't see WR1 players play 50% of a team's offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It's the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

As mentioned above, Deon Jackson and Rhamondre Stevenson led all running backs in week six. Injuries, committee and coaching decision continues to play out in the position making for inconsistent production. It's truly getting to be a wasteland and running back and I continue to do what I can to swap backs out for receivers.

We're quickly arriving at the point where you need to make a determination about your team. If you aren't competitive, now's the time to get worse as long as it's not a result of just bad luck. Aging players, players with changed roles or poor build are all variables which may suggest a rebuild should be started. Once again, be the best or be last, don't be mediocre. It's not fun to play out the remaining weeks of a season knowing you won't be competitive but it's even worse if you miss your window to add some excited for next year.

To that end, you dynasty activities should be fun. It can be frustrating to lose continually or have a bad beat, but it should still be a fun experience. There's nothing wrong with changing up your style or strategy to make the game even more fun. My longest running tea, the one which help start DLF, is a team where I focus nearly all my energy on accumulating players I like to watch on Sunday, competition level comes second.  This gives me a team I can focus on while all my other teams go on their merry way. With this primary league, I can root like hell for my favorite players and also accumulate draft picks to make the dynasty draft even more fun. It's amazing how my attitude changes when my focus changes from being competitive to, instead, maximizing Sunday pleasure. That said, I still want the team to win, but I won't do any move, trade or strategy that doesn't maximize the enjoyment of this particular team.  If you want more information on this, let me know. I even wrote an article on it a few years back that I could repost.

One other quick note, this time regarding quarterbacks. Once again, I'm seeing a definite split in the haves and have nots at quarterback. Much like tight end, if you dont' have a top quarterback, it almost doesn't matter who you start. It's a broad swath of mediocrity. This is one reason why I'm a very different analyst when it comes to team building and prioritizing the acquisition of a top six quarterback, even if it means you have to overpay. Once you have a top younger name at the position, you could be set for ten years. In single quarterback formats, top quarterbacks often only garner second-round rookie pick value. Only with the very upper echelon do values begin to creep into the bottom of the first round. Those with a top name under center know the true value of having an every-week starter. If you have to stream quarterbacks, the likelihood is that your team will be an inconsistent scorer. The moral of the story is:  Do not be afraid to overpay for a top quarterback.

Good luck this week.

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I'm going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you've all come to expect from me. I've been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

  • Please don't ask me to set your entire lineup
  • Put "TNF" as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
  • Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
  • Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
  • Keep your questions as brief as possible - Story questions add a lot of time
  • I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don't worry, I'll be back to it.
  • It's easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I'm wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I'm still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let's do this...

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Lineup Advice, Team Tracking, Trends & Strategy – Week Seven
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Ashley Moser
1 month ago

Hey there! 12 team PPR

Need help for my flex and the options are all dicey. Pick ONE: Jamaal Williams, Darnell Mooney, Devin Duvernay, Deon Jackson, JK Dobbins

VIN DACCARDI
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff. 10 team .5 PPR
RB – ETN (vs NYG) or Montgomery (@ NE)
I’m leaning toward ETN with a VERY tough matchup for Monty.
WR – Cooper (@ BAL) or Olave (@ ARZ)
I’m leaning towards Cooper in a very good matchup but Olave is the Saints #1 WR and will soak up targets with Landry and Thomas likely out again.

VIN DACCARDI
Reply to  VIN DACCARDI
1 month ago

TNF . just realized Olave plays Thursday.

1 month ago

Hey Jeff, 10 team, PPR, 1 QB. Do I start Najee Harris or Jeff Wilson as my flex?

Reply to  [email protected]
1 month ago

BTW, I am leaning Wilson since he is on a better offense.

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks so much. Good luck with your league(s) this week.

Raynall21
1 month ago

PPR:
1) Need 2 of 3: Zeke, Brandin Cooks and Drake London.
2) Need 1: Eno, London or DJ Moore?

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

TNF
Hi Kemo,
My first overall losing week for the season at 4-6 for 10 leagues but still in a tie for 1st in a couple of them. The bye weeks and injuries are starting to have an effect. I need to keep from falling behind.
1) Starting Kamara and Walker for RB along with Chase, Deebo, and Waddle for my WR’s. I need one flex player from a returning DHop, a similar returning Swift, Jeudy, Gallup, and ETN. This is my only 1/2 PPR league if that enters into your thinking.

2) Right now I have Winston penciled in as my QB for TNF with Cousins on his bye. I can pick up Zappe, Brissett, or Dalton on waivers late tonight. None of the matchups thrill me. Your thoughts?

Thx.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thx. I can try to hold off on the Winston decision until almost game time. This league has a more limited bench than my others so I’ll have to try to pick up Brissett on Thursday night if I need to. I’ve been holding Hop and OBJ since our draft. I was concerned about Hopkins as well so I’m hoping Swift won’t get a limited touches.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Right. I dropped Winston a few hours ago and figure to pick up Brissett or next best on midnight waivers tonight. With Mac possibly starting over Zappe on Monday night, it leaves me with little options. Thx.

James Richardson
1 month ago

TNF
10 Team League. I have no studs but need to outscore a team with studs. Full PPR. Which 3 WRs should I play…Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Jakobi, Pierce, Mike Williams (Herbert is my QB), Amon-Ra, or Rondale Moore?
As usual thanks much Jeff.

James Richardson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff…I have in DJ, Amon Ra, and Williams as you suggested. Considered Rondale Moore but I need to see more from him. Thanks again for all your help.

Kris H
1 month ago

10 Team ½ point PPR
Need two of three RBs:
S Barkley @ JAX, J Robinson vs NYG and M Gordon vs NYJ. Also where would J Wilson vs KCC fall in with this group if he becomes available?
Need three of five WRs:
K Allen vs SEA (assuming he plays), R Bateman vs CLV, M Evans @ CAR, C Lamb vs DET and DJ Moore vs TBB. Evans and Lamb seem like locks.
Thanks in advance

Mark D'Angelo
1 month ago

0.5 PPR
1 TE: Hayden Hurst, Foster Moreau (assuming no Waller), Hunter Henry (If Waller sits I’m thinking Foster Moreau. If not, then Hayden Hurst?)
1 DEF: Miami DST vs Pittsburgh, Cincy DST vs. ATL, NYJ DST @ DEN
1 Flex: Drake London, Melvin Gordon, Jamaal Williams, Garrett Wilson, James Robinson, DJ Moore, Nico Collins (Kind of wide open here. Leaning Drake or James Robinson)
Thanks!

Matthew Crawford
1 month ago

TNF
I put TNF on this because one of the guys I’m considering is Rondale Moore.
Standard Scoring
Just lost Hollywood Brown, Michael Thomas still sitting, Bateman has been a no show. Gabe Davis is on a bye. Have Michael Pittman and Drake London. Would’nt ya know it, they have the same bye week.
Have to start 3 WRs.
We have limited moves.
Available include Chase Claypool, Rondale Moore, Wan’Dale Robinson, Tyquan Thorton, Noah Brown, MVS, and Chark. Isaiah McKenzie is out there but he is on a bye this week.
Looking for someone who will play most of the time. Cause I’m probably gonna play em a good bit. More than just a one week streamer. Probably have to pick up 2.
Could you give me your top 3 (who you like, I like your thinking process 🙂 ) in order.
I’m leaning Wan’Dale and Moore, but I really don’t know enough about this group.
Any ideas would be appreciated.
Tried trading for one, but no success.

Matthew Crawford
Reply to  Matthew Crawford
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff. That really helps.

Cory Ables
1 month ago

Appreciate the help!
12 Team PPR
Need a Flex Pick out of:
-N Harris @ Miami
-T Pollard vs DET
-J Meyers vs CHI
-D Mooney @ NE
-W Robinson @ JAC
I’m leaning towards Meyers being the safe pick.

Steve Reyland
1 month ago

TNF
Standard scoring, PPR.
Jeff,
Murray or Burrow. I played Murry last week, big mistake.
Thanks,
Steve

Don T
1 month ago

12 Team PPR
WR2
Alec Pierce or Juju Smith Schuster

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

TNF
Hey Jeff,
PPR- signs are pointing toward Dalton starting tonight. Do you see Taysom having enough of a role to start him at TE-cheat code over Pitts and Njoku this week?
Starting Dak or Kyler this week? I’ve been disappointed in Kyler’s numbers so far, but he does have DHop back. But Dak has the tasty Detroit D.
IDP question: I have JJewell. For a LB spot, better to secure Denver tackle machine single LB handcuff Singleton or get Pratt who should be big while LWilson is out?
Thanks!

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Lol, I missed Singleton too!
I don’t need a ceiling game, so I’ll go with Pitts or Njoku. I’ll hit you up later in the week to see who you prefer.
Thanks Jeff, good luck!

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks again sir, I’m glad to have Njoku to fall back on while hopefully Arthur Smith gets Pitts more involved. My apologies for repeating this question on here this morning.

John Seger
1 month ago

TNF – Hi Jeff… sorry for the late question…
Eno v. NO tonight or wait til Sunday to decide on BRob v. GB or JRob v. NYG. No PPR]
Thanks!!
John

John Seger
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

So Conner is sitting… change your mind any?

John Seger
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Yeah… been kicking myself… thankfully my 11 year old son didn’t listen to me when I mentioned that I was sitting Eno… so he played him and scored!! I should have known better to not want to take crap from him!! Good luck this week!!

Ryan Coppinger
1 month ago

Hi Jeff, glad to hear the first 6 weeks have gone well for you. Injuries and bye weeks have me a little thin at WR.
Need to start 2 of these 3, 14 team 0.5ppr. T. Thornton, N. Collins, P. Campbell. I think I’m leaning Collins and Thornton but the match up and targets from Campbell last week have me a little stuck. Thanks for your input!

1 month ago

Hey Jeff, 10 team, PPR, 1 QB league. I had Jeff Wilson going but McCaffery is now in town, so Wilson is out. Do I go with Najee Harris or Kareem Hunt? I am leaning Hunt because he is due, and like you said earlier this week, Harris is not set up for success anytime soon.

Reply to  [email protected]
1 month ago

Jeff, I do also have Curtis Samuel I could play too….
So do I go Najee Harris, KareemHunt, or Curtis Samuel? I think I am leaning Samuel since it is PPR, and Heineke will play better than some may think. Your thoughts?

Thomas Ferguson
1 month ago

Hey Jeff,
Longterm how worried should I be about Friermouth’s concussions? If I were to move on what should I look for in return?

James Richardson
1 month ago

12 Team half PPR. Need best 4 including 1 RB.
Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams, Keenan Allen, Palmer (in case Allen doesn’t go), Paris Campbell, Doubs, or JuJu?
Thanks Jeff!

James Richardson
Reply to  James Richardson
1 month ago

Or I might be able to trade for Jeff Wilson (JuJu or Paris) knowing I would use him for just this one game if CMC is inactive.

Jon Souliere
1 month ago

.5 PPR. Pick 1: Rhamondre, Godwin, Najee. Leaning Rhamondre, although Harris looks ready to play again.

Ryan Barnt
1 month ago

1QB, 12tm, PPR
Hey Jeff,
Struggling to pick my RB2 this week…
Khalil Herbert
Donte Foreman
Sony Michel
Antonio Gibson
That’s the order I’d rank them… what do you think?

J M
1 month ago

SF 14 team league.
Already starting Brady but who to start between Rodgers @ WAS or Matt Ryan @TEN? Leaning Ryan here but it’s close…

James Richardson
1 month ago

Paris Campbell or JuJu in a half point PPR 12 team league? Thanks!!

1 month ago

Jeff, sorry to be so high maintenance this week, but the injury bug keeps affecting my team. I have Courtland Sutton In as my flex. Should I trust Sutton with a backup QB, or I could go with Kareem Hunt?

Reply to  [email protected]
1 month ago

10 team, PPR, 1 QB league.

Patrick Hanley
1 month ago

Hey Jeff, slim pickens for me at RB this week with byes & injuries. Standard scoring.

For my RB2 need to pick one of these,
AJ Dillon @ Was or D Swift @ Dal?

Note: I’m starting A Jones as my RB1 & like you, don’t enjoy starting 2 RBs on same team but Lions coach has screwed me over with Swift several times as a decoy. Comes down to if you think he will actually get the touches.

With gratitude!
Patrick

Ryan Barnt
1 month ago

1QB, 12tm, PPR
Hey Jeff,
I’m so sorry to ask again… just seen that Gus was activated… with JK out… what do you think about Gus over Herbert?
Ryan

Steve Reyland
1 month ago

Hi Jeff,
Standard scoring, PPR, SF
Need 6, minimum 2RB & 2RB
RBs Mixon, Stephenson, Jacobs
WRs Godwin, Lamb, St. Brown, McLaurin, Waddle.

I think the easy call is sit not-so-scary Terry.
Is my other sit Mixon? He’s been underwhelming but gets the work. Jacobs has been a stud of late.

What do you think?
Steve

Steve Reyland
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Jeff,
So who do I sit if not Mixon? I need to sit one more besides McLaurin.
Godwin?

Last edited 1 month ago by Steve Reyland
James Richardson
1 month ago

Im starting Drake this Sunday in half PPR but having second thoughts since Gus the Bus was activated and he may take away significant production. What do you think?
Thanks Jeff.

Jason Hewitt
1 month ago

16 team ppr

Currently starting Godwin, Swift, Zeke, Mooney and Tyreek Hill.

Other options Bateman, G Wilson, Pollard.
Thinking of starting Wilson over Mooney with E Moore out

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Hi Kemo,

Great comments on your leagues in your intro. Keep it up.
Unfortunately, with bye weeks and injuries, either I have just enough of a lineup to fill my dance card or I’ll also be scouring the waivers at 7am Sunday for the necessary bodies. It also means fewer questions for you since I’m forced into certain decisions without choice.

1) QB Tua returning or JimmyG? Leaning Tua but concerned with history.

2) Regarding those “necessary bodies” above – your thoughts on Mims, Bourne, Harry, and Sammy Watkins as fill-ins for injured or bye players?

3) The CMC trade is probably driving lineup manager crazy – I have Wilson on several teams whose value will drop by next week. I also have both CMC and Wilson on one team. Do I wait to see if he’s active or not and if he is do I hope for a few red zone shots or go with the safer Wilson? Help!

4) With Kupp on bye and Hollywood now on IR, I’m left with Waddle, Pickens, and Renfrow who is iffy. If Renfrow is out, do I hail Mary with Harry (my one remaining WR) or pick up Mims or Bourne on BB waivers early Sunday AM? Trying to stay in a tie for 1st here. Both Mims and Bourne seem to be on the trade block so having a good performance would only help out their teams.

5) With CMC gone, the Carolina RB room is a bit of a mess assuming they don’t trade for Akers or ?. I’ve picked up Foreman in a couple of league but really like Blackshear based on his Buffalo preseason and his latest kick return results. On a bad team who’s looking to give up assets for 2023, is there still value in picking up their leftovers hoping to find a new #1 and not one of your committees you brought up in your intro?

Thx as usual.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks Kemo.

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

Hey Jeff,
1) PPR. Pitts or Njoku
2) PPR. 1 Flex from BCooks or Alec Pierce
3) PPR. 1 Flex from Bateman, Jeudy, GWilson, Wan’Dale (please rank considering Bateman a full go because I figure if there’s talk of a pitch count he’s out for me)
thank you sir!

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you for laying this out Jeff, especially #3. You the man, good luck today!

Shawn Barberis
1 month ago

Ty for your help. 12 team SFTEP. PPR.
SFTEP. Need two from Aiuyk, Juju, London, McLaurin and Njoku
Gut tells me Njoku because its 2pts PPR for TE’s. Baffled on the WR’s. Open to ideas. BTW, stilll cn’t get the discord to work for me. No idea why.

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

Jeff, I’m hearing Samori Toure might be active today, if so he seems like an attractive stash, good size and speed. Flipping a coin to give my last stasher disposable roster spot to one from Toure, RBlackshear, MBrown or Dameon Williams?

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff. I have stashed Deon Jackson already. He’d take JT and Nyheim to be out for him to be relevant again. Is he a keeper over Blackshear and Toure in your opinion? I can keep two of the three.

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks, I’m going with Jackson and Toure, just waiting to see if he’s active. 👍

James Richardson
1 month ago

Sorry…one last question for a half point PPR 12 Team League. Do I play Keenan Allen (GTD in afternoon game) or do I play Paris Campbell? OR…stick with Allen and if he doesnt play then use Pickens (Sunday night)? Keeping in mind that even if Allen goes he may not last. Ugh…I am so confused.
Thanks Jeff.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Hi Kemo
Still working on the Discord sign in.
PPR
CEH supposedly now #2 in KC. Do I still flex him over Jeff Wilson today? Outbid on Hubbard this AM.
Flex Sammy W or Marvin J ?
Dallas or Jags DST?

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Late game – Lockett pretty iffy. Do I assume he’s out and put in Duvernay or Sammy for the early game, or wait it out and plug in Nico Collins for his late game?

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