Lineup Advice, Team Tracking, Trends & Strategy – Week Seven

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Bye:  Bills, Rams, Viking, Eagles

Week Seven

A little bit of a brutal week last week across the position matrix.

The following assumes PPR scoring:

The running back group was led by Deon Jackson and Rhamondre Stevenson, followed closely by Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey. At receiver, the usual suspects are represented at the very top though Chase Claypool came is as the WR6 and Juju Smith-Schuster the WR7. The big surprise of the week was New England's rookie speedster, Tyquan Thornton who scored twice, once as a runner.

At tight end, three of the top five weekly players were none other than Tavis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle. Mike Gesicki is your TE1 and is said to be on the trading block while Robert Tonyan (TE4) is starting to get targets as the Packers struggle on offense.

Remember, bad things can happen to good teams. Keep your wits about you, avoid knee-jerk reactions and don't get  "cute" with your lineup decisions.

We've added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF's new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we'll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren't missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games. While I'd love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don't see a repeat of 2021. That doesn't mean I'm not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13.

Week six was okay with an 8-5 record, bringing my total record to 47-31 across the 78 total games. I had a full six games to be decided in Monday's nights affair and it mostly came down to Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Austin Ekeler. I went 2-4 on the Monday night games, mostly because Russell Wilson is inept thus far this year and is taking Jerry Jeudy with him. Both quarterbacks had relatively poor nights and I took two losses due to their lack of production. If not for that, it could have been a stellar week.

Of my 13 teams, I only have one with a sub .500 record, that one sitting at 2-4. Point scoring with this team isn't terrible but I don't believe it's going to be competitive without a bit of help. On the verge of a rebuild in all likelihood but stranger things could happen and I'm letting it play out for another couple of weeks.

Bye weeks are going to hit hard this week and played a big role in week six. In one of my primary leagues, I may not be able to field a lineup without at least a couple of additions via the waiver wire. On the positive side, getting players such as Dameon Pierce and Derrick Henry back on the field will help immensely. Hoping to get positive news for D'Andre Swift.

Strategy and Trends

This is what I posted for week one:

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven't updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won't see WR1 players play 50% of a team's offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It's the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

As mentioned above, Deon Jackson and Rhamondre Stevenson led all running backs in week six. Injuries, committee and coaching decision continues to play out in the position making for inconsistent production. It's truly getting to be a wasteland and running back and I continue to do what I can to swap backs out for receivers.

We're quickly arriving at the point where you need to make a determination about your team. If you aren't competitive, now's the time to get worse as long as it's not a result of just bad luck. Aging players, players with changed roles or poor build are all variables which may suggest a rebuild should be started. Once again, be the best or be last, don't be mediocre. It's not fun to play out the remaining weeks of a season knowing you won't be competitive but it's even worse if you miss your window to add some excited for next year.

To that end, you dynasty activities should be fun. It can be frustrating to lose continually or have a bad beat, but it should still be a fun experience. There's nothing wrong with changing up your style or strategy to make the game even more fun. My longest running tea, the one which help start DLF, is a team where I focus nearly all my energy on accumulating players I like to watch on Sunday, competition level comes second.  This gives me a team I can focus on while all my other teams go on their merry way. With this primary league, I can root like hell for my favorite players and also accumulate draft picks to make the dynasty draft even more fun. It's amazing how my attitude changes when my focus changes from being competitive to, instead, maximizing Sunday pleasure. That said, I still want the team to win, but I won't do any move, trade or strategy that doesn't maximize the enjoyment of this particular team.  If you want more information on this, let me know. I even wrote an article on it a few years back that I could repost.

One other quick note, this time regarding quarterbacks. Once again, I'm seeing a definite split in the haves and have nots at quarterback. Much like tight end, if you dont' have a top quarterback, it almost doesn't matter who you start. It's a broad swath of mediocrity. This is one reason why I'm a very different analyst when it comes to team building and prioritizing the acquisition of a top six quarterback, even if it means you have to overpay. Once you have a top younger name at the position, you could be set for ten years. In single quarterback formats, top quarterbacks often only garner second-round rookie pick value. Only with the very upper echelon do values begin to creep into the bottom of the first round. Those with a top name under center know the true value of having an every-week starter. If you have to stream quarterbacks, the likelihood is that your team will be an inconsistent scorer. The moral of the story is:  Do not be afraid to overpay for a top quarterback.

Good luck this week.

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I'm going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you've all come to expect from me. I've been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

• Please don't ask me to set your entire lineup
• Put "TNF" as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
• Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
• Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
• Keep your questions as brief as possible - Story questions add a lot of time
• I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don't worry, I'll be back to it.
• It's easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I'm wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I'm still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let's do this...