Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Week Five
Okay, week five was… it happened, anyway. Injuries, boom weeks, and stagnating studs… oh my. Still, our search to highlight upside players as early as possible moves on.
I’m collecting the weekly data throughout the season and posting it on a sheet.
Now, let’s get on with it.
The list
To start, let’s look at players I think are locked into the top 12 this year.
Around 80% of players, over the last four years – who have hit this kind of volume and production – have finished inside the top 12 by the end of the season. That doesn’t speak to injuries (for their quarterbacks or themselves) but it does give me enough confidence to say we know who at least four of the top 12 wide receivers are right now.
Even with Cooper Kupp’s team struggling, he’s still averaged over 22 points per game (PPG) over the last three weeks. Tyreek Hill, having lost Tua Tagovailoa for at least one more week, might also be a concern. However, He’s maintaining a 15 PPG over the last three and 16.8 expected points per game (EPG). Instead, Jaylen Waddle seems to have suffered the most from Tua’s absence.
Stefon Diggs is out-producing his volume (by five points a week), but his overall volume is still high enough that there’s no reasonable concern. Diggs can lose a touchdown a week and still be top 12 by the playoffs.
From this point in the season, about 70 to 80% of players surpassing our volume thresholds finish as top 12 players. However, that’s over the last four years, and on average, only four to five players surpass the thresholds in a single season by now. This also fits what we are seeing here.
I would also add Davante Adams to this group. The main thing holding him down is a reliance on touchdowns (with only 82 yards per touchdown, when the average is 170). However, this lines up with his 25% share of the teams’ red zone touches, as is also a feature of Adams’ production we are very familiar with from his time in Green Bay.
A note on efficiency and volume in 2022: wide receivers are probably still due regression as the season moves on. Top 12 wide receivers are averaging two more PPG than average since 2018, as well as a two percent higher target share. That would make those top 12 players even more significant as we approach week five.
Our List
That leaves five to seven spots in the top 12 and I think everyone currently ranking there are all good, but also have signals (from touchdown dependence to recent volume trends) that suggest they are less likely to continue at this level of production.
So, who do we think could make it? DK Metcalf and Ja’Marr Chase (two easy value picks in dynasty anyway) finally joined the list last week.
The main note of concern is the one player we celebrated last week and the one already in the top 12.
Marquise Brown is a little touchdown-dependent right now. He only has 8.7% of the team’s overall red zone touches but is scoring a receiving touchdown every 139 yards. Sadly I have to tell you he was also top 12 in overall points last season by week five but fell by the end of the season.
Brown’s target share is still strong enough that I’m not sounding alarm bells just yet. But I thought I’d mention it, especially with the return of DeAndre Hopkins incoming.
Except for CeeDee Lamb, they are all averaging over 15 expected points per game (our threshold) over the last three weeks. Lamb also suffers from a lower red zone usage, with 42% of Dallas’s red zone touches going to their two running backs, and 23% to Noah Brown.
In dynasty my concerns are limited by their expected ADP in July. Given that, Lamb continues to be a locked-in target for me right now. The only players I think could have real dynasty “risk” in July are Courtland Sutton and Marquise Brown.
I’ve demoted both Diontae Johnson and Brandin Cooks to our top-24 list. They are both averaging over the top 12 thresholds for expected points and over 25% of their team’s targets. However, their inefficiency has more to do with their offense than their performance right now. Unfortunately, that’s more likely to continue.
Here’s a reminder of our ‘floor’ players. I still like them for this season and beyond, but they are second-tier compared to the others.
Those are the wide receivers I’m trying to target and start in dynasty leagues in 2022 so far.
Rookie Snapshot
Through five weeks, Chris Olave has cemented himself on the list of impressive rookies in 2022. Olave is one of the four rookies I’d firmly say is worth more than a generic first-round pick (along with Breece Hall, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson).
George Pickens continues to impress on the field, and his on-field play is good enough that I don’t think many will be unaware despite his 15% target share. I’d prefer him over a generic first-round pick, but it’s hard to know if his ADP will get there since 2023 picks have an abnormally high value. I’d expect it to finish there by the season’s end.
Alec Pierce and Khalil Shakir showed out in week five. Pierce had the more impressive game (for our purposes) with a much larger role. However, a glance at Romeo Doubs may remind us why we should wait for a few more games before rushing out with too many offers just yet.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for right now. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you next week.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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