The bye weeks are approaching. The injuries continue to pile up. The running backs announced themselves with a bang in week five and now, we adjust, again! Here are five dynasty transactions to make before week six:
Rashaad Penny, SEA RB – Sell
Unfortunately, a player with a major injury-prone tag is gone for the year. It is especially unfortunate for Penny who will miss the remainder of the 2022 season with a fractured Fibula suffered in Sunday’s game against the Saints. The incumbent starter was playing on a one-year deal with the Seahawks and barring a full recovery, is likely facing a situation where he must battle for a job next spring as he hits free agency again.
The Move – This one is simple. Nobody will really want to trade for Penny but ultimately, he will cost you a roster spot before he ever plays another game. Even if he fully recovers by the time you have to clear your injured reserve, a volatile player like him coming off a serious injury will be valued in the round three range next spring. Cash in for any third now, free up a slot on your IR (or active roster) and have an extra pick to use to buy a spot start in 2022. You can add more exposure to Penny if he fully recovers before next season.
Jeff Wilson Jr, SF RB – Buy
Many people will look at the fantasy production from week five and think Jeff Wilson is being threatened for touches by Tevin Coleman. After all, Coleman posted 21.7 PPR points on eleven touches, including multiple touchdowns in the Niners win over Carolina. However, Jeff Wilson played more than two-thirds of the snaps and doubled the routes of Coleman, and added 20.2 PPR points of his own. The bottom line? Jeff Wilson has been amazing, so much so, it is time to bet he keeps this role even with Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price back.
The Move – This will be a tough buy. However, as time goes by and Mitchell (and Davis-Price) are closer to returning, managers currently using Wilson will get greedy and want to cash out at something more than his pure backup price tag prior to the backfield injuries. This is the time to pounce. When the narrative becomes that he is “just a guy who is headed back to the bench”, I bet the other way. Pay a third for Wilson before that takes place and bet on him keeping a job he has justifiably earned.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR – Buy
I never thought I would say this. Buy CeeDee Lamb. This seems obvious though, right? How high do I buy? Lamb has rebutted any and all doubts about his ability to earn targets as he leads the NFL in market share at 35 percent. Fortunately, the buy window remains open as this concentration of volume has translated into WR22 on a per-game basis due to the lack of efficiency in his targets. Expect Dak Prescott’s return to bump the quality of targets up, and even if the volume falls, the peripheral numbers on Lamb point toward him finishing the season as a top-12 wide receiver. Buy now as the price is likely to go up.
The Move – Lamb becomes one of the few wide receivers I would consider moving a top-four pick in the 2023 draft to obtain. Not the 1.01, but another pick that a manager feels may give them access to a top-end quarterback or running back going into next season. Consider adding a late first-round pick to another wide receiver such as Elijah Moore, Brandon Aiyuk or Jerry Jeudy to acquire Lamb in a league with eleven or fewer starters. The bottom line? He has arrived on the menu and I will not leave without getting my fill.
Tony Jones, SEA RB – Add
You may have seen mass dynasty drops of Jones last week as he was waived by the New Orleans Saints. Perfect timing to add more to the portfolio at no cost as Jones was claimed by the Seattle Seahawks following the Rashaad Penny injury. Such is the life of circling the drain for running backs likely to be active on Sunday, Jones has 63 career touches and looks to be in line for work if the Seahawks have another injury in the backfield.
The Move – This is the bottom of the bench add. A player who could easily be cut if a better option becomes available. He should be added in any league with at least thirty roster spots and while he remains on an active roster, he should be on your dynasty teams (especially if you are going discount shopping at the running back position).
Carson Wentz, QB WAS – Sell
Like Davis Mills last week, the rash is beginning to appear again on Carson Wentz and the window is rapidly closing. As Washington falls to one and four on the season, Wentz ranks 27th in the league in EPA+CPOE (think efficiency) which is one slot lower than he ranked in 2021. The result? He was cast off from the Colts causing dynasty managers much doubt on his future. We are here again. The Commanders are going nowhere and Wentz is headed down the same path. Unfortunately, the third time is not the charm and it seems unlikely he will get a fourth chance as a locked-in starter. Get out while you can.
The Move – Regardless of your team position, sell Wentz for a 2023 second-round pick. Unlike Davis Mills, this is a tougher proposition (but one that may allow you to still sell Wentz) as he is currently a top-12 quarterback in fantasy points. The major issue is getting those points despite leading to his own demise as a starter. When the bottom drops, the market will follow. Look to snag a backup quarterback in any deal for Wentz (such as Andy Dalton, Cooper Rush, Teddy Bridgewater) and move on.
Conclusion – More than a month in, the super simple advice is to be honest with your squad heading into the bye weeks and be the first to market. Buy and sell, do not get stuck in the middle. The future picks (in the projected middle) and volatile players are what the market is seeking and pick your lane sooner than your competition.
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