Dynasty Twitter Observations: Geno Smith Rising, Chase Claypool Falling and More
We are now a month into the fantasy season and trends are becoming clear. Teams can no longer say their week one was a fluke, no matter what the outcome. There’s a good chance that your team is what it is at this point. This means you can start assessing whether you want to make a playoff run or start looking ahead to next year. Below are a few tweets that may help you make that decision.
(Clay)pool’s Paradise
And Kenny Pickett's first throw is a deep ball with two defenders near Chase Claypool that is picked off by Jordan Whitehead. https://t.co/l5soRCYkbU
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 2, 2022
After a fairly consistent two seasons in the NFL, it was time for Chase Claypool to either take it to the next level or cede his role (and targets) to a younger receiver. He had a good foundation to ascend after seeing more than 100 targets in each of the last two seasons and totaling over 800 yards in each. But he has yet to take off in 2022, failing to top 40 yards in any game this season and seeing as many targets as rookie George Pickens. The shift to rookie Kenny Pickett under center may be his last chance to assert himself with this regime. Otherwise, the people in charge in Pittsburgh have the pieces in place to move on.
Dynasty Impact: After a surprising rookie season that saw Claypool total nine touchdowns, he fell back to Earth in his sophomore season, catching just two. As mentioned above, he did see more than 100 targets in each of those seasons but the Steelers still felt the need to draft Georgia receiver Pickens in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Between his decline in touchdown production and the selection of Pickens, his dynasty value has dived.
At this rate, it should decline even further. Claypool just hasn’t been a priority for the Steelers so far. And unless he develops a rapport with the rookie Pickens, and fast, he could be on his way out.
Travis Aggressive
Travis Etienne out-snapped James Robinson for the first time in his career today. 24-21 edge.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 2, 2022
It’s one small step for Travis Etienne, one giant leap for Travis Etienne dynasty managers. At long last, the Jaguars ran Etienne out more than they did James Robinson, the latter of whom has been hard to displace as the starter. It came in a loss where the Jaguars blew a lead over the undefeated Eagles but it’s still promising for Etienne.
To date, he has fewer touches than Robinson, 65-42, and hasn’t looked like the first-round pick he was a year ago. He’s averaged just 4.2 yards per carry and has yet to score a touchdown. On the bright side, the Jaguars look competent and Etienne is a significant part of it. All it takes is one breakout game for Jacksonville the turn over the keys to the offense to him.
Dynasty Impact: While the off-season was a popular time to be acquiring Etienne on the eve of his first professional season (after missing his rookie season with a torn ACL), we’re now in overtime of that window. But that’s ok as his value may have even dipped a little due to the lack of production over the first month. Currently, these are the players our DLF Trade Analyzer says can be swapped for him straight up.
Half of those players can easily be swapped for Etienne just based on their age and time left as an elite option. Etienne’s time will come and he has a stable environment to do it in. He may not end up as the overall RB1 in dynasty rankings but he should lead plenty of dynasty teams’ backfields.
We need to talk about Geno
Russell Wilson through 4 games this season: 80-of-131 (61.1%), 980 passing yards, 4 TD, 1 INT.
Geno Smith through 4 games this season: 102-of-132 (77.3%), 1,037 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT.
Credit to Geno. He's been excellent.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 2, 2022
Even the most optimistic Seahawks/Geno Smith apologist couldn’t have seen this start coming. Not only are his passing yards (1,037) and touchdowns (six) in the top ten, but that insane completion percentage (77.3%%) is the best in the league. No matter what your league’s scoring settings, Smith has been a QB1 so far. And while there’s a good chance he can keep up a similar pace for the rest of this season, dynasty managers want to know if he can keep it going into next year and beyond.
Dynasty Impact: Before week four, Smith was still being traded for a relative pittance in superflex leagues. According to the DLF Trade Finder, he was being moved for third or fourth-round rookie picks. That will change if he keeps this up and it should (for superflex leagues). Seattle wasn’t expected to compete this year in what was viewed as a transition year until they can get a quarterback of the future. But between their 2-2 record, along with the Broncos’ (whose 2023 first-round pick Seattle owns) 2-2 record, it doesn’t look like Seattle will be in a position to take one anytime soon. That’ll buy Smith, and his managers, more time to ball out. I would be interested in Smith for a second-round rookie pick or something similar.
Justin Down
Justin Jefferson and the Vikings survive against the Saints in London‼️ pic.twitter.com/PvfAAzsYo8
— ESPN (@espn) October 2, 2022
Shame on fantasy Twitter for doubting Justin Jefferson. After admittedly two slow weeks where he failed to top even 50 yards, he dominated Marshon Lattimore and the Saints for ten catches and 147 yards. Thanks to the explosion, Jefferson’s weekly averages are back to where they were last year – 10 targets per game, close to 100 yards receiving, etc – and ensures his spot at the top of DLF’s rankings for the foreseeable future.
Dynasty Impact: Normally, I’m a proponent of selling at peak value for any player, especially one at the top of the rankings. After all, there is nowhere else to go but down when it comes to value so why not get out while you can still maximize the return? I don’t think that with Jefferson. What he has done in his short career is impressive no matter what age but to do it so quickly is unique. He’s still just 23 – more than 18 months younger than 2022 rookie Velus Jones, Jr – and has been producing with the likes of Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Quite simply, if any player is going to sustain their elite production, it’s Jefferson.
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