Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades
We are approaching my favorite part of the season, where leagues are starting to take shape, and people are beginning to identify who needs to enter a rebuilding phase and who are the genuine contenders. So who are some players I’d be targeting this week?
Mike Evans, WR TB
What is the saying you can rely on? There are things in life: death, taxes, and Mike Evans? Since entering the NFL, he has been ever reliable on a season-long basis, posting over 65 catches and 1,000 yards every year of his career. This year Evans has got off to a solid start. He is the WR17 in total points, but if you consider he missed one and a half games after his fight with Marshon Lattimore, he’s produced as the WR7 in points per game.
Despite all of that, I am concerned. While Evans has for once in his career been the only healthy receiver for the Buccaneers, the cavalry is arriving. Chris Godwin was healthy and played this week. Julio Jones is getting healthier, and Russell Gage is now healthy after battling injuries in the preseason. That is a lot of mouths to feed, and I am concerned we could see Evans’ target share head south. Another current anomaly is Evans’ catch rate; his career average is 57.6%, with every year of his career falling between 50% and 65%. While we’re talking small sample sizes, his current catch rate is 76.2%. That is quite a big difference, and for no real apparent reason, as the depth and quality of his targets haven’t dramatically changed.
Combining all this with his increasing age – he is now 29. The WR23 in September ADP, his value could drop dramatically if his production dips as he approaches that age-30 mark. If you could sell Evans for a 2023 first-round pick, I would instantly make that move. Even if you’re a contender, I think you could buy a productive wide receiver at a better age profile with that first-round pick than a player like Evans. It could be the last opportunity to sell him at peak value before the bottom falls out.
AJ Brown, WR PHI
I think Brown is the dynasty WR3 and closer to the top two than he is to the next tier. This may seem slightly redundant as a player to target, but most people hold Brown up as a top-five dynasty wide receiver, and of course, everyone would want to roster him. He has been great this year and is currently the WR9 in scoring. However, I honestly believe that is his floor over the next couple of seasons rather than his ceiling.
The Eagles have taken a step this year since they traded for the wide receiver, and Jalen Hurts has taken a big step as a passer. Brown is seeing an elite target share of 32.2% and a high percentage of high-value targets, with 14.2% of his targets greater than 20 yards downfield and 14.2% of his targets occurring in the red zone. Even though he has seen this impressive distribution of targets, Brown has only found the end zone once this season. His career averages are to score a touchdown every 135.96 yards or 13.32 targets. So far this year, he has put up 404 yards and 38 targets for that one touchdown. Based on his career averages, Brown should have between 2.8 and 3 touchdowns. Those extra two touchdowns don’t feel like much, but it would vault him up to the WR4 on the season.
It may feel like you’re buying high on AJ Brown right now, but I believe he is an elite talent, producing at an elite level in an elite offense with a step still to take. Price wise I’d be comfortable paying two 2023 first-round picks for him. However, the move could be to pivot to an older but productive receiver like Keenan Allen or the previously mentioned Mike Evans with a 2023 first to upgrade and buy back years.
Jared Goff, QB DET
Wow, what a wild ride the Lions have been through four weeks. They are putting up points for fun, and that has been incredible for Goff and his fantasy production. He finds himself currently sat as the QB5 in fantasy. Yes, you read that right, the QB5! He is in the conversation of a potential weekly starter in 1QB leagues, let alone superflex leagues. That is the exact reason why I think now is the perfect opportunity to be selling Goff.
Goff currently has the third highest TD rate amongst quarterbacks at 7.3%, which is behind only Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. I am expecting his TD rate to regress as the season progresses. We also haven’t mentioned the elephant in the room. Goff is doubtful to be the starter in 2023 for Detroit. While he has two years left on his contract, the Lions can save $20.65m by releasing him after this season. I fully expect the Lions to find their future quarterback, whether in the draft or via trade for somebody like Derek Carr. I do not believe Goff will be on the Lions next season, no matter how well he plays this year.
So if Goff is on the free agency pile, will he find another starting spot, or will he enter the world of bridge quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky, and Jacoby Brissett? I think the latter is more likely than the former. So if you can sell him while people still think of him as a regular NFL starter in superflex leagues, it would be wise to make that transaction. Suppose you can tempt somebody to part with a 2023 first. Realistically I think you could get a 2023 second + something. Could you move Goff for Desmond Ridder and a second? If you’re a contender, could you pay up with Goff to go and get a longer-term starter? Would Goff and a second be able to get you into the conversation of someone like Tom Brady?
Devin Singletary, RB BUF
Sometimes certain players are not sexy, not exciting, yet they just put up solid production week after week. Singletary is 100% one of those players. So far this season, he has posted three useable performances out of the four games played. Now he is unlikely to win you many championships or even many weeks. However, as bye weeks begin to appear, having a player you can plug into a deeper flex spot who can get you eight points on a given week and has the potential to score 20+ isn’t too bad.
Singletary is hardly going to cost you much. The Trade Analyzer has him worth between a second and third-round pick. It could be a helpful addition if you can buy him for a future third and help you with some bye week cover.
Tyquan Thornton, WR NE
This is a quick under-the-radar addition to be making. I was very high on Thornton post-draft, and he was my WR11 in this class. All reports were that he was having a great camp and expected to have a significant role early in the season. A collar bone injury put an end to that and means he is sat on most roster IR spots collecting dust. If you can use the lack of production as an opportunity to buy low on the potential, it could reap a huge reward. Combine this with the hype around the 2023 draft class, and you may be able to temp Thornton away for as little as a third or fourth-round draft pick. That could look like a steal when he returns to the field in a few weeks!
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