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Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Five

What moves can you make this week to improve your dynasty rosters?

Christian Kirk

The first month is behind us and the bye weeks are approaching (week six). The injuries are piling up and we have a month of data to start basing rest-of-season decisions on. Here are five dynasty transactions to make before week five:

Javonte Williams, DEN RB – Sell

The biggest injury impacting the dynasty game this weekend was the season-ending injury suffered by Broncos running back Williams. Williams tore his ACL and LCL which will require surgery. His 2022 season is over and like JK Dobbins, it may significantly impact his availability for the 2023 season. Dobbins also suffered a hamstring tear on August 28th, 2021 and did not return to play until September 26th, 2022. Assuming a 12-month rehab for Williams, this puts him on pace to return in week four of next season.

I have no time to hold a player at a volatile position, hoping he returns back to a mid-RB1 at-best for some portion of his future in dynasty. The market will flatten on Williams after a few weeks and I can buy back in at the price of a future first-round pick for many months to come.

The Move – Target rebuilding teams already punting for 2022 if you are contending, lost Williams and need production. Otherwise, sell Williams for any random 2023 or 2024 first-round pick and happily become a more flexible spending account for the time he is recovering from his injury. Below is an example of an unbeaten team I have that just lost Williams.

Christian Kirk, JAC WR – Buy

It was a rough week four for Kirk as he posted his worst fantasy performance of the season. Between the weather conditions and the opponent, Kirk struggled, posting 60 yards on two catches after earning nine targets. For the season, Kirk ranks tenth in the league in target share and should continue to be an auto-start each week. Zay Jones missing the game also forced Kirk to the outside where he historically struggles. Look for him to bounce back next week against the Texans and I want more Kirk in my life before that happens.

The Move – This will be a tough buy. However, prey on the fact that the previous narrative on Kirk may be somewhat shaky considering how far he has come in the past six months. You may have to pay a future first-round pick (2024 preferably) but the availability of a quality wide receiver in this market is seemingly rare. I would prefer to pay multiple second-round picks (or a second-round pick and a player) but will accept giving up a future first-round pick depending on the format. 14 or 16-team leagues, I am much more willing to bet against my own pick on a quality squad.

Phillip Lindsay, IND RB – Add

This one is straightforward. With Jonathan Taylor suffering a high-ankle sprain in week four, the Colts are down to Nyheim Hines and Deon Jackson in the backfield. They travel to Denver for a short week and the story may be set for Lindsay to make his return to the Mile High City. Frank Reich indicated that Lindsay would work into the rotation if Taylor cannot play. Lindsay should be listed as a free agent on some platforms and should be available in most leagues to add in this upcoming waiver run.

The Move – This is strictly a “next man up” add with a player who has produced in the past and could be thrust into touches against his former team. It is unlikely Lindsay cracks any lineups with the current information we have on his potential usage but adding a guy with his production past is never a bad idea now that he will be elevated to the active roster.

DJ Moore, CAR WR – Buy

This one is controversial. After all, Moore has been a perpetual tease for years among dynasty managers and given his current situation, the theory on why to buy at this point goes deep. The bottom line is Moore is a great wide receiver who has been limited by his situation. His career market share exceeds 22 percent and the price has continued to free fall to a range where you can be within striking distance by offering a second-round pick and a player. He finished with 14 points per game last season with Sam Darnold and there is hope that Darnold may actually get a shot to start this season. I am in the market of collecting good players in bad situations and this might be one of those opportunities.

The Move – Start by offering a second-round pick. You likely get turned down. Be persistent. Consider adding a startable running back if the manager with Moore also lost a running back. Players such as Chase Edmonds, Nyheim Hines or Melvin Gordon come to mind if a team is looking for a quick fill-in. I do not want to pay a future first-round pick but anything less, I am fine adding Moore at the current market price.

Davis Mills, QB HOU – Sell

Mills was a fantastic story in 2021 and many managers took a victory lap (deservedly so) when the Texans ignored the position over the 2022 off-season. Unfortunately, the other shoe may be dropping as Mills has struggled mightily in 2022 (as have the Texans) and is poised to be in a position to be replaced after the season. He ranks 26th in the league in passer rating and third to last in the league in efficiency (EPA + CPOE) behind Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield. The manager with Mills is unlikely in a position to contend and at this point, cashing in on a fledgling asset at a major loss is better than taking a zero in a few months.

The Move – Regardless of your team position, sell Mills for a 2023 second-round pick. The bottom line remains, if you NEED Davis Mills, you likely need to focus on the future. Considering he is a starting quarterback, the demand should exist to get something in return and if you cannot get a draft pick, add a future second-round pick (or a player) to get Zach Wilson. Jameis Winston is a suitable pivot that may exist given his last few performances and current injury, but Winston is a nice bet to continue a career as a starter long after Mills.

Conclusion

We are four weeks in. Check your all-play record. Check your potential points and efficiency. Assess your team honestly. Is it bad luck? Is it going to turn around? The faster you make a decision to pick a lane, especially with the injuries at the running back position, the faster you can get ahead of the league market and take advantage of the few opportunities that may exist to make moves to benefit your roster.

Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Five
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timmymac75
1 month ago

Current SF roster – QB – Allen, Lawrence, Lance RB – dobbins, Montgomery, Javonte, spiller, Pacheco, Davis-price. WR – Adams, Pittman, aj brown, Higgins, gab Davis, Hopkins, wandale Robinson TE – Goedert, Smith jr
(3) 2023 1st round picks
Trading javonte and a 2023 1st for Breece Hall to much?
or Javonte and a 2023 1st for swift and James cook?
or do I hold??

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