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Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Five: Road Trip Edition

Welcome to week five! As always, I’m answering every question, every week! New this year are my weekly dynasty team tracking and strategy thoughts.

PLEASE READ FULL POST EACH WEEK!

EDIT: I’m on the road for the next week with a challenging schedule. Please get your questions in early to improve my chances of responding. Remember the “TNF” at the top if it applies. 

Week Five

Things are starting to develop and I hope your teams are rounding form. But, at the same time, injuries are starting to mount. Javonte Williams has been lost for the year, a brutal blow for the upside back and DLF’s RB3. In the NFC, Cordarrelle Patterson has been placed on I.R. and Jonathan Taylor could miss a week or two with an ankle injury.

We’re also starting to see some disturbing scoring trends which could shape the standings should they continue. At quarterback, it’s starting to look like a “have” and “have not” year with many teams continuing to struggle. At the same time, some of last year’s leaders at the position are struggling including Rams’ veteran Matthew Stafford while fellow Ram Jared Goff is seeing a resurgence.

I’m giving it one more week before I start getting too concerned about any of my teams but, for the most part, all are performing now after a tough couple of weeks to open the season.

We’ve added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF’s new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we’ll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren’t missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games. While I’d love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don’t see a repeat of 2021. That doesn’t mean I’m not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13.

Another decent week with an 8-5 record, bringing my total record to 30-22. Given the start I had, I’m thrilled with the turn-around.

Most all of my teams scored very well this week but were beat out by league leading scores, sometimes the stars just don’t align. For my favorite loss of the week, I had a team win with Clyde Edwards-Helaire game-sealing run which would have run out the clock, only to have the run canceled out by a holding call. The Chiefs punted and I lost by a slim margin on the Bucs’ final garbage time possession. It happens. Stinks every time … unless I’m the one who benefits.

Strategy and Trends

This is what I posted for week one:

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven’t updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won’t see WR1 players play 50% of a team’s offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It’s the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

The running back position continues to be a mess and as the weeks pass, I want less and less to do with it. For the first time, it doesn’t feel like there is any strategy to the position. You insert your backs and you hope they produce. Those who produce in one week, disappoint the week after. Just take a look at the top-ten see for yourself. But welcome back Saquon Barkley!

At wide receiver, it continues to be mostly a who’s who with a couple of new names. But the scoring spread is proving out about as expected and serves to provide more confidence about my new running-back light-strategy.

At tight end, the top three of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson are standard and unsurprising. After the top three, it just doen’st matter that much, at least not so much that you should be prioritizing acquisition of a player. And I have to mention Kyle Pitts, TE18. Again, I like Pitts but the mass-hysteria surrounding Pitts’ perceived dynasty value was, and still is, out of control. Reality may be starting to finally set in, if only a bit. Just like Jalen Reagor, if you don’t own Pitts, a few more games of lackluster performance and you may be able to acquire him at a greatly reduced price. I still own zero shares of Kyle Pitts but I may start sniffing around by mid season if his prospects don’t improve.

Betting Lines and Props

Due to my road trip schedule I just haven’t had time to study the lines and prop options but may finally able to get to it this week. If interested, check back in

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I’m going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you’ve all come to expect from me. I’ve been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

  • Please don’t ask me to set your entire lineup
  • Put “TNF” as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
  • Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
  • Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
  • Keep your questions as brief as possible – Story questions add a lot of time
  • I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don’t worry, I’ll be back to it.
  • It’s easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I’m wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I’m still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let’s do this…

Jeff Haverlack
Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Five: Road Trip Edition
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Mike Ev
1 month ago

TNF
Hey Jeff, 1-PPR. if JT cant go, Zeke or Pollard vs Rams? Gut would be to roll with Pollard.
Safe travels!

Raynall21
1 month ago

PPR for all questions:
1) Breece Hall or DJ Moore?
2) Dobbins or Drake London?
3) Singletary, Penny or DJ Moore?

Ashley Moser
1 month ago

12 team PPR/1.25 TE PPR
Please help me pick THREE from: CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Breece Hall, and JK Dobbins
Thanks!

Travis Steffey
1 month ago

Hey Jeff, Trade question here- 12 team, .5, 2 rb + flex. On the lookout for another rb after the Williams injury and this morning was offered Penny and Walker for Herbert, Pacheco and a late 23 1st. My other backs are Dillon, Gibson and Mckissic, so its not pretty to say the least. Im currently 6-2 and high scorer in the league, so I was thinking I had shot this year. Is it to much to give up? Thanks in advance for your advice

Last edited 1 month ago by Travis Steffey
1 month ago

Hey Jeff, 10 team PPR, 1 QB league. Do I start Jacobs or Najee Harris? I am assuming Jacobs with Pickett making his first career start vs Buffalo. Your thoughts?

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

You rock! Thanks for helping me get to 3-1. Good luck to your teams this week.

Gordon Thomas
1 month ago

Is it time to bench Pitts? He’s been a huge disappointment. Long-term I think he’ll be fine. My other options are: Dynasty #4 1 PPR Flex—LThomas TE, EMoore WR, or Gainwell RB / Dynasty #3 1 PPR—LThomas TE or RTonyan TE. In D#4 I’m leaning Moore, and in D#3 I’m torn. Thanks!

Gordon Thomas
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks. Agree.

Jamie Horton
1 month ago

Hey Jeff, assuming JT can’t go would you start Zeke, Hunt or Gordon? .5 PPR league.
Are you sitting Stafford this week or does he bounce back?
Safe travels!

Jamie Horton
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks as always my friend!

Zachary Ringer
1 month ago

TNF

Start Gordon vs Ind, Allgeier @ TB or White vs Atl in my RB2 spit? Current order is where I’m leaning right now

Thomas Ferguson
1 month ago

Hey Jeff,
Trade question: Team is rebuilding, need advice on offers to send the owner of Javonte Williams.

8 Team non PPR Superflex

I have all my 2023 picks plus and additional mid 2nd.

Roster is as follows:
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawerence
Breece Hall
Eno Benjamin
Justin Jefferson
Garrett Wilson
Devonta Smith
Romeo Doubs
Elijah Moore
Pat friermouth
Zach Wilson
Kenny Pickett
Isiah Pacheco
Hassan Haskins
Zamir White
Isiah Spiller
Skyy Moore
Rondale Moore
Tyquan Thornton
Elijah Mitchell

Appreciate your insight on offers the other owner would find intriguing while not over paying.

Thomas Ferguson
Reply to  Thomas Ferguson
1 month ago

Forgot to mention the guy who owns Javonte does not have a 1st or 2nd 2023 pick.

Last edited 1 month ago by Thomas Ferguson
Eastman Tiu
1 month ago

Keeping this short so you can get back to your vacation, Jeff!

0.5 PPR. Small bonus at 100 yards and long TDs.

Need 2.
Theilen vs Bears
Gabe Davis vs Steelers
Doubs vs Giants in London

I’m leaning Theilen and Davis, even though Davis has been not productive lately. Doubs has gotten another week of good targets but I shy away from London games. I also am already starting Singletary and Jones at RB if that factors at all.

ET

Kris H
1 month ago

10 Team ½ point PPR
Need two of four RBs:
S Barkley @ GBP (London), J Robinson vs HOU, C Akers vs DAL and K Herbert @ MIN. Also where would M Gordon fall in with this group?
Need three of five WRs:
K Allen @ CLV (assuming he plays), R Bateman vs CIN, M Evans vs ATL, C Lamb @ LAR and DJ Moore vs SFO.
Thanks in advance

J M
1 month ago

Full PT PPR. Is Swift an auto start if he plays? NE defense stout and he’s coming back from injury. Beyond that need 2 of these 3:
Etienne vs HOU
Diontae @ BUF (yikes)
Doubs vs NYG

Thanks as always Jeff!

thepistol11
1 month ago

TNF – PPR

Hey Jeff – which two would you start this week:
Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Courtland Sutton, Robert Woods, Tony Pollard?

thepistol11
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you Jeff!

mattmccormick
1 month ago

0.5 PPR
WR (start 2): DK, Godwin, Boyd, Gabe Davis
TE (start 1): Waller, Njoku, Schultz
I’m leaning DK and Godwin at WR, but am really torn at TE given Waller’s inconsistency and Schultz 0 last week. Thanks for any help!

Travis Steffey
1 month ago

Hey Jeff, follow up response here. I had originally asked about trading herbert, pacheco and a late 23 1st for Ken Walker and Rashaad Penny. My fault for not specifying originally but that was KHALIL Herbert and not Justin..all rbs involved here..I lost J Williams last week, im currently in first but my only other backs are Gibson, McKissic, Dillon, Herbert and Pacheco. I know its irrelevant now but no it isnt superflex and my qb is Lamar. Thanks for taking the time to answer sir and safe travels

Peter Paguaga
1 month ago

TNF
I know this is late but I just completed a trade that got me Terry McLaurin
Full PPR 6-point TD
WR (need 3 to start)
Diggs (for sure)
Diontae Johnston
Terry McLaurin
Jerry Jeudy (TNF)

I am leaning toward going Terry and Diontae, unless I should go Jeudy over Diontae because Pickett is starting.

Thanks as always Jeff!

Mark D'Angelo
1 month ago

TNF 0.5 PPR
2 RB: Mixon, Jamaal Williams, James Robinson, Melvin Gordon (Mixon & Williams right?)
1 WR: DK Metcalf, Drake London, Garrett Wilson (DK hard to sit I think)
1 Flex: James Robinson, Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson (James Robinson given the matchup)
Thanks!!

Raynall21
1 month ago

***TNF***
PPR: Melvin Gordon or Devin Singletary???

Jason Hewitt
1 month ago

16 team ppr

Currently set to start Zeke, Godwin, Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Gabriel Davis.
Other options Bateman, Robby Anderson, Goedert, G Wilson, Pollard, Swift and Mooney

Owen Granke
1 month ago

TNF (RB)
Hi, Jeff, I appreciate the guidance. I have a 12 team SF TE premium, start 10, where I am 1-3, largely because of injuries (Dak, JT and Swift).
I plan to start: Goff and Mayfield; Josh Jacobs and Mike Boone (over Michael Carter and Isaiah Pacheco); Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore and George Pickens (sitting Bateman because of injury); and Njoku and Pitts (sitting Kmet). Would you start any of the players I am sitting over who I plan to start? I’m concerned at the RB position, but what can you do.
Thanks, and enjoy your travels!

Last edited 1 month ago by Owen Granke
Owen Granke
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff. Mayfield has been…disappointing. Best of luck with the surgery tomorrow. I hope your wife’s dad is okay!

Vincent Modrak
1 month ago

“TNF”
1PPR
Travis Etienne vs HOU
Cam Akers vs DAL
Melvin Gordon vs IND
Drake London @ TB
Need two for flex spots! I’m leaning Etienne for one of my spots due to the soft HOU matchup. I’m absolutely torn on the rest. Thank you!

James Richardson
1 month ago

Hello Jeff…
Team 1 – Full PPR – Need 2 WRs out of Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Amon-Ra (if he plays), Josh Reynolds (if Amon-Ra does not play), Corey Davis (Zach’s friend), Elijah Moore, Darnell Mooney, or Zay Jones.
Team 2 – Half PPR – Need 3 out of Olave, Doubs, Pickens, Gabe Davis, JuJu, or A-Rob (what a disappointment).
As usual Thanks So Much!

Paul Wright
1 month ago

TNF 12 team .5ppr I lost JT for tonight who do I start this week Singletary and Gordon or Gibson and Gordon I’m leaning toward Gordon tonight and Singeltary on the Weekend
Thanks Jeff

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

TNF
PPR
As much as I usually hate TNF games for fantasy, Jeudy or Aiyuk tonight? Also have Alec Pierce who seems to be coming on lately but not sure how confident I’d feel about in other than maybe in a flex spot. Duvernay is my only other WR choice after the first two and may be a sneaky play if Bateman is out this weekend.

Thx Kemo.

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

TNF
PPR
Jeff, I’m looking for who to play at flex from Jeudy, JK, GWilson, Bateman, ETN
I’m thinking Jeudy…but they all really need another week to cook and settle. Maybe Russ has to cook a bit with Javonte out. If it’s Jeudy, I’ll plop him in at WR tonight and DAdams will flex Monday.
non-TNF – is it time to bench Waller and Pitts? I’ve got Njoku I could start in both instances. Thanks!

Chad Gorick
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thanks Jeff! I think I just saw a note moving Waller to questionable which would make the decision easier. Good luck with your squads and we’re still sending out our best for your father-in-law, medical providers and family.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Good luck with her dad’s surgery tomorrow. Hope all goes well.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Another TNF game for the ages………
I can understand the Colts a bit when your #1 player is out but there’s so much going wrong with the Donkeys right now that’s hard to figure out. So much talent and so little team execution.

Jon Souliere
1 month ago

.5 ppr. Pick 1 to start: DK, Godwin, Miles Sanders, Najee.
Leaning Sanders due to volume and actually getting TDs so far this year. Thanks Jeff!

Alexa Feldman
1 month ago

Team 1 – .5ppr superflex

Need to start 3 in the Flex: B.Hall, Zeke, Juju, I.McKenzie (if he plays), D.Njoku – I’m leaning Hall, McKenzie, Njoku but feels weird to bench Zeke or Juju

Team 2 – .5ppr 1QB

Need to start 2 WRs and 1 Flex: G.Davis, E.Moore, T.Etienne, Z.Jones (if he plays), G.Pickens, A.Robinson (killing me) – I’m leaning the first 3, but Zay is intriguing

Thank you!

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Kemo,
Hope the health situation improved for her dad today. Best wishes to your family.

PPR –
1) Based on your earlier posts and the matchup, assuming you would prefer JRob as my #2 RB (after CEH) over Jacobs, Penny, Wilson, or Mostert. But now I would need two flex from those RB’s listed plus Renfrow, Pickens, or possibly Agnew who has Zay Jones returning. I’ve been playing 4 RB’s since week one but a bit scared of subbing in either Renfrow or Pickens this week. Just could use really some advice on choosing two out of Jacobs, Penny, and Wilson.

2) Tonyan or Dissly? Engram or Dissly? (two different teams)

3) How about a second RB from White, Henderson, Edmonds, or Mostert? Whomever you don’t pick is probably at least one of my two needed flex since all I have left there are Parker, Agnew, and Hardman.

4) Trying to go 2-1 without Dak for hopefully just one more week. I have Geno and JimmyG to choose from on my roster or do I pick up Teddy, Zach W, Brissett, or Tannehill off waivers early Sunday AM?
Thx again.

Jason Schmidt
1 month ago

Hey Jeff. Full PPR. Dobbins or CEH? Thanks!

Ed Sulek
1 month ago

Which 2 RBs should I start in a .5 PPR league between Dobbins, CEH, Wilson, and Hunt. Thanks Jeff!

Clyde Aker
1 month ago

Good morning Jeff,
1) Ppr, 6pt pass TD – Would you start Jamaal Williams or Davis Mills?
2) TD and >300 yards only scoring – Brady or Hurts.
I have Williams and Hurts in now, but have switched them both a couple times, lol. Real conviction!
Boise is pretty nice, but traffic getting bad. Ran a 100 mile race around Eagle Island a few years ago. Take care.

Clyde Aker
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
1 month ago

Thank you, sir.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

How about a DST question –
I’ve got the Cowboys and Jags on a couple of teams and adding in the Dolphins to those two on one more. Any strong preferences from those mentioned? Was looking ahead for the next few weeks try to get a few extra points but would really hope our leagues would just drop the DST option. I’d rather have another offensive player to roster.

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Hi again Kemo. Hope things are going well.
PPR
1)Stevenson or Wilson for my RB #2 after CMC. They have been almost even for several weeks with Stevenson’s receiving numbers working in PPR making up for TD’s.

2) Need two flex from St. Brown (if he plays), Lazard, Mooney, Aiyuk, and Parker. If Amon-Ra is out, it might have to come from Lazard and whichever RB you preferred the least in my question above.

3) Is Duvernay startable as my #3 WR with Bateman out. Agholor and Agnew are my only other choices.

4) Gallup, Davis, or Mooney for a different team’s WR #3?

Thx. Keeping my fingers crossed on the surgery.

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

Hey Jeff,
Non PPR short bench
i’ve got Pitts out and waivers is scary, who do you like from:
LThomas, I Smith, Dissly, Otton, Henry, Likely, JJohnson
i think LThomas is option 1 but he’s got a calf and is questionable in an early window game. Can you give me your top two?
thanks!

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

On that earlier QB question – Cooper Rush is actually available on waivers as well as the others I mentioned. He has a pretty consistent floor, but needing as many points as possible, I had thought either Geno or Teddy as my higher ceiling options. Zach had a decent last game but I don’t have a lot of confidence in him yet. Our BB waivers are at 7 am Pacific so let me see what I can do there. Losing Swift for a few weeks left me short on RB’s and after TNF I’m down 25-0 already. Ouch…

After CMC, how would you rank the following RB’s for two NON-PPR flex slots –
Penny, Wilson, Dillon, Dobbins, Stevenson, and Allgeier?

Good luck this weekend.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

Great news on the surgery.
With Lazard playing very early, I may have to pencil him in and then go Amon Ra (if he’s active) or Stevenson instead of Aiyuk. Worried a little about St Brown in his first game back.

Chad Gorick
1 month ago

Hey Jeff!
Non-PPR, 5 man bench, no flex, no IR. My starting RB’s are DCook and King Henry. I’ve got to drop one from KHerbert, Jamaal Williams or AJDillon for a TE or I take a zero at that spot. Who do I drop? Thanks!

Steve Reyland
1 month ago

Hi Jeff,
Last minute here sorry. Standard scoring PPR SF.
Need 4 WRs
Diggs, Godwin, Lamb, Waddle, St. Brown, McLaurin
My starters are in the order I have them started so the first 4 are currently in the line-up.
I’d like to get St. Brown in but not sure if I take Waddle or Godwin out or just leave it alone.
It sounds like they are all going to play.
Steve

George Holmes
1 month ago

Hi Jeff 1pt ppr league i need help with my flex spot this week D Pierce or Jeff Wilson? Took the wrong one last week. Thanks!

Anthony Coleman
1 month ago

.5 PPR G Wilson, Scary Terry, or Penny?

Anthony Coleman
1 month ago

Need one in all of these
PPR:
ARob or Osborn
McLauren or Pickins
.5 PPR
McLauren or Dionte
McLauren, G Wilson, Penny, Or Hunt

Stephen Atkinson
1 month ago

PPR – Gallop, Duvernay, or Akers for a flex spot later today?

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