Dynasty League Football


Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week Three

Which players should produce this week? Who might experience a dip?

DJ Moore

Welcome! This is a weekly series where we look at player regression trends on a week-by-week basis.

Throughout the season, I’ll collect the weekly data and post it on a sheet here.

Enough preamble, nerd up!

Last Week

We bounced back in week two in a big way. The league regressed all over the place and our little table mopped up most of it.

Brandin Cooks and – in a shocking turn of events, Justin Jefferson – were the sole disappointments for the wide receiver position on the bounce-back list. TJ Hockenson and Kyle Pitts both jumped back inside the top 12, leaving only a lone Hayden Hurst on the loser pile.

Running back was a little rougher. Javonte Williams and Leonard Fournette continued to produce outside the top 24, AJ Dillon shared the backfield much more evenly with Aaron Jones and both underperformed as the game script sidled towards the passing game in a matchup with Tom Brady. But Josh Jacobs finally paid off on his volume to finish top 15.

On the “produce less” list, the only miss was Breece Hall who finished as the 13th highest scoring running back with 11 targets, a phenomenal number. These are positive signs for the highest drafted rookie running back this year, and an acceptable disappointment for this article series.

I would note that D’Andre Swift once again fell outside the top 24 but he also came out with an injury and looks to be sidelined for a while. He joins Ross Dwelley on the DNP (neutral result) pile of a near-perfect week for the high list.

You can see the full list and results, going back to 2021 week three, in my data linked above.

Week Two: Players who should produce more next week

The main questions I get are of the: “what does that table mean?” variety, so I’m simplifying it this week.

If players are on this list, they “should” produce inside the top 24 next week, or inside the top 12 at tight end.

Table, timeline Description automatically generated

Quick takes: Dare I risk another “Justin Jefferson will be back in the top 12” comment? Yes, yes I do. I think Curtis Samuel should be a top 24 player at the position, not a top-12 one moving forward, and will continue that in week four. Don’t panic on Garrett Wilson – the Steelers matchup should put him back to rights. Kareem Hunt remains an upside second running back in fantasy, but whenever Nick Chubb feels like putting on a show, he’s going to take a back seat.

Side take: Deebo Samuel finished outside the top 24 last week. He made the season-long list of players underperforming in my other series. Last week wasn’t egregious enough in efficiency (because of how many inefficient players we saw) to make this table, however. But you should know about him.

DJ Moore, WR CAR and Brandin Cooks, WR HOU

How did our two heroes fall outside the top-60 WRs in points per game? Baker Mayfield and a tough matchup against a Chicago defense only allowing the ninth-most points to the position seem to be the answers. But is there volume enough we should expect them to bounce back this week?

Both have solid target shares over 20% and are running routes in 94%, or above, of their pass plays. Both also have 10% of their teams’ red zone touches this year.

Moore currently ranks outside the top 24 at the position in expected points but the Panthers host Arizona this week, which has been a fairly giving matchup for the position. So there is hope for a one-week bounce back. I’d consider rolling Moore this week, once more for the old times.

For Cooks, I think the answer is a straight “yes”. And I’d start Cooks over Moore this week. While both these players cross the thresholds I mentioned, Cooks has a significant edge in each one and his targets currently have a top 12 value in EPG (17.7 EPG – the top-12 average is 15).

I have Cooks projected inside the top 20 at this position and Moore inside the top 36.

AJ Dillon, RB GB and Aaron Jones, RB GB

Jones and Dillon have an identical number of targets, and the same percentage of red zone touches (although Dillon has more rushing attempts and Jones has more targets). They also have the same number of rushing touchdowns and have finished inside the top 12 the same number of times (once) this year. The split is in Dillon’s favor overall.

It’d be easy to say, especially as someone who has always been high on Jones, that Dillon doesn’t have the ceiling because of Jones’s better efficiency on the same number of targets. But the value of Dillon’s touches has been greater overall and a couple of extra rush attempts in the red zone mean his weighted opportunity is greater as well.

It’s a terrible split for fantasy, where both could be top 12 or outside the top 36 each week. Based on last week, they both project to bounce back on their volume in week four. But I wouldn’t start either with confidence.

Darren Waller, TE LV, and Gerald Everett, TE LAC

It’s Mark Andrews‘ (and Travis Kelce’s) world and we’re all just trying to stream in it. However, these two tight ends have proved to have more consistent top-tier volume and production this season and if last week’s disappointment shook anyone’s faith, I’d look to take advantage. I think both finish inside the top 12 in week four.

I’d start either without a second thought.

Week Two: Players who should have less production

Players on this list should finish outside the top 24 at their position next week, or outside the top 12 at the tight end position.

Honestly, it’s easy to hit on these. We may have to up the stakes and try for more marginal calls next week. But let’s see how it goes in week four first.

Romeo Doubs, WR GB

Doubs had 15.3 expected points last week and performed well on that opportunity. While one week is only one week, that works both ways. His volume increase was “out of the blue” but I don’t think it was entirely game script either. Players earn their opportunity no matter what the “vacated” gurus tell us.

Despite this, we’ll have to wait and see for another week to see if it carries over from last week’s pass-heavy game against Tampa Bay. Doubs’ usage – routes on pass plays – was maxed last week and his target share was still only 23%. This could go either way right now but I’m willing to be cautiously optimistic.

Amari Cooper, WR CLE

Cooper is coming off back-to-back weeks of 16-plus expected points. He also has a long history of being a dominant player on multiple offenses and his skills have not – despite the simpering fear of age in dynasty – been diminished.

I think he looks like an overproducer right now because Donovan Peoples-Jones had one blow-up game in week one (affecting Cooper’s overall rank in opportunity), which we talked about at the time.

I’m starting Cooper as a top-20 wide receiver this week and I feel confident in it.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

Elliott is sharing the backfield with Tony Pollard through three games. Don’t let week three fool you – he’s not “eating” the same way he used to.

They split the role 9.3/13.5 into expected points in Elliott’s favor, but the week before went in Pollard’s favor (16.5/9.7).

If you can, sell high on the one week of production for the veteran back – it may be the last we see in a while.

Josh Jacobs, RB LV

Jacobs is coming off two games with greater than 14 expected points. The filter thinks he overproduced because of his week one total. I’m willing to bet Jacobs maintains a top 24 outlook for the rest of the season right now, and this is a miss next week.

I don’t think he finishes top 12, but he’s probably going to sustain enough volume to start in fantasy, including next week.

Anyway, that’s about all I have time for this week. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you in week four.

Peter Howard
Follow me
Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week Three
Click to comment
5 1 vote
Article Rating
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
To Top