Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Week Three
I’m having to write this series without Expected Points (EP) numbers this week. Some of the players we referenced last week played on Monday, so the data isn’t available. Fortunately, we have a long-term view, so that doesn’t derail us much. I just wanted to explain why the tables look a little different this week.
But, if you’re trying to find edges, you follow the volume.
For your reference, I’ll collect the weekly data throughout the season and post it on a sheet.
Now, let’s get on with the show.
Last Week Results
Here are the four players I highlighted last week as “looking” like potential top 12 wide receivers ranked outside the top 20.
Brandin Cooks was the only one to have a significantly “bad” week three, however, his target share remained top tier. Houston passed a season-low number of times in a road loss to Chicago. Cooks still led with seven targets, no one else eclipsed four, and Jordan Akins caught the lone passing touchdown. Ultimately, I think he still has upside for his current dynasty value.
Deebo Samuel may now be the best dynasty value out there, assuming everyone now appreciates CeeDee Lamb a little more, and Jaylen Waddle isn’t holding an inexplicable second-tier value anymore. The points are coming.
Notably, even with Jerry Jeudy back on the field, Courtland Sutton continued to distance himself as the lone bright spot for fantasy on the Denver offense. Even if the team can’t put itself on a better track for the season, I continue to think Sutton should score points, in fantasy.
One note from last week is that two players who made the list but I didn’t highlight blew up.
I hit on Marquise Brown in my weekly regression series, which brings up a point. This series is more about finding season-long upside, early. To do this, I try and identify a relatively small target of maximum upside at the position. But that doesn’t mean I should ignore others, like Brown, who look like easy regression candidates with likely outcomes in the top 24.
To that point, everyone on this list right now should, or could, be a dynasty target at their current value depending on if the person in your league doesn’t realize what they have.
To that end, I want to mention that Christian Kirk, Curtis Samuel, Marquise Brown, and Michael Pittman are all in the top 12 right now. Their production profiles “look” more like top-24 players this year. However, they are all displaying significant signs of ending the season strongly, if not as strong as the first few weeks have been.
This is our list so far in 2022. But let’s take a glance through the full position to see if anyone new stands out.
This Week
These are players after three weeks with greater or equal to 15 points per game and over a 20% target share, who are currently outside the top 12.
There’s our man Courtland Sutton again. While Ja’Marr Chase is on this list, I don’t see a lot of point in highlighting him. His dynasty value is maxed already. You already know he’s good.
Likewise, you should know already that Drake London and Garrett Wilson are having great starts to their rookie season and are now worth more than a random 2023 first. I’ll talk slightly more about them in the rookie section below, however.
Amari Cooper, WR CLE
Team old guy rides again? I don’t hate Cooper’s top-12 upside right now but we’ve been here before. However, his EPG and PPG through three games give him access to that upside and his typically dominant target share bolsters the case.
He hasn’t been used consistently in the red zone, but that’s about his only flaw right now. He has never been significantly devalued by dynasty, however. This off-season, his lowest ADP was still in the top 70 picks overall ADP (with first-round pick rookies).
If you are a competitive team or can tempt your league mate with a 2024 first plus, I think Cooper is a decent target, and worth adding to our list to watch.
DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
You probably could have snagged Smith for a single first-round pick last week. But unlike our main list and Amari Cooper, I don’t think anyone’s going to forget Smith proved his upside in his rookie season… now.
I consider it a failing – after spending all off-seasons listing him as a likely breakout candidate in 2022 – that I did not mention him last week.
He makes the list to watch. One week is only one week but 169 yards is 169 yards, and he’s got a 16-game sample from last year, youth in his favor. Dynasty players, by and large, are probably not tilting on him right now.
Rookies
I’m putting Drake London and Garrett Wilson in a green box. I can’t imagine a way they don’t end the season worth less than a random 2023 first. Don’t tilt. If others tilt, pounce.
Chris Olave, NO WR
Olave managed to pay off on his air yards from last week, and that’s good to see. I still feel like we won’t get a great idea of this offense until Alvin Kamara’s usage stabilizes. But right now, the arrow is pointing up on Olave. He hasn’t even caught a touchdown yet, and only ran a route on 90% of his plays. This could be just the beginning.
Romeo Doubs, GB WR
It was a positive game for Doubs. One game through three weeks isn’t good enough, but positive is positive. This game did tie for the highest number of passing attempts out of Green Bay this season, and the most passing yards, however. Watch this space. This could continue or he could be a one-game flyer. Last week he was at max usage (97% route rate), though, so we may have seen his max upside for now.
Treylon Burks, TEN WR
I’m holding on to my rookie profile while crying into my pillow most nights, thanks for asking. Week eight. I’ll give him till week eight because he’s a rookie. But falling back in target share and production when Kyle Philips was unavailable – because of injury – is not a good look.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for right now. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you after week two.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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