Dynasty Twitter Observations: Javonte Williams’ Rough Start and When Will it be Kenny Pickett Time?
We all need to accept that every week of this NFL season will be off the rails. After seeing what we thought, were two incredible weeks to start 2022, week three brought us the butt punt, redemption for Dan Orlovsky, and more. Below are just a few of the tweets that stood out this week.
Kenny from Heaven
With a mini-bye before Week Four, Mike Tomlin says there will not be a QB change from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett. https://t.co/tVpNXGg2B8
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 23, 2022
After being exiled from Chicago and rehabilitated in Buffalo, Mitchell Trubisky signed in the off-season to be the bridge between Steelers legend Ben Roethlisberger and the future. No one knew what the Steelers’ future was at the time since Trubisky signed in March but we found out in April that the immediate future is rookie Kenny Pickett whom the Steelers took in the first round of the NFL Draft. Now with three lackluster starts under Trubisky’s belt, the calls to put in Pickett are getting louder every week. Mike Tomlin is a pretty straight shooter so the tweet above should be taken at face value. But the longer the Steelers lose, the less reason they have to stick with Trubisky.
Dynasty Impact: For some dynasty managers, they’ve started thinking ahead when it comes to Pickett if our DLF Trade Finder is any indication. Before the Steelers’ week three loss to the Browns, Pickett was still a relative bargain being traded for the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster in superflex leagues. Now that the chorus is calling for him, it’ll boost his value/cost when trying to acquire him. But that’s okay, at least at this stage. No doubt there will be Pickett managers who drafted him and are looking to cash in on the hype. Assuming the cost is not multiple first-round rookie picks, Pickett would be a good pick-up before he (potentially) lights it up in the Steelers offense. He looked great in the preseason and is surrounded by good players who will make his transition to the NFL easier.
Fool’s Gold
IVE NEVER BEEN HAPPIER
FFFFREEEEEDDDOOOMMMM
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) September 26, 2022
Since this tweet has 150,000 likes at the time I write this, chances are you’ve seen it and know what it’s about. It’s been 14 years since a quarterback made the same mistake Dan Orlovsky did but Jimmy Garoppolo accomplished it in what was a disaster of a game. It was Garoppolo’s first start since taking over for the injured Trey Lance and hopes were high – so high in fact that the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances increased this week. But if their 11-10 loss (yes, the safety was the difference) is any indication, San Francisco might be in for a long season. But what about the dynasty managers of its players?
Dynasty Impact: If you went off just the abysmal week three performance of Garoppolo, you might think the offense around him is doomed. But thanks to one of the strangest quarterback ‘controversies’ in recent memory, the installation of Garoppolo is just a repeat of the 49ers’ offense last year. That offense had a rusher run for more than 1,000 yards in just 11 games (Elijah Mitchell); a tight end total over 900 receiving yards (George Kittle) and one of the top offensive performances of the year by a non-quarterback (Deebo Samuel) – all with Garoppolo starting most of the season. Coincidentally, some of those players’ dynasty values dipped after Lance was named the starter.
And while Garoppolo is not a target in dynasty leagues – whether it’s 1QB or superflex – don’t let his performance alter your value of the other 49ers. Rank them exactly as you did before the Lance injury and Garoppolo’s performance.
Law and Order: Special Williams Unit
Didn't see this one coming. #Broncos added Mike Boone to the mix last night, something Javonte Williams certainly didn't need. RB snaps:
* Javonte Williams 33 (13 routes)
* Melvin Gordon 28 (13 routes)
* Mike Boone 14 (11 routes)— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 26, 2022
2022 was supposed to be Javonte Williams‘ breakout year. The second-year running back totaled over 900 rushing yards in his rookie season while part of a committee with veteran Melvin Gordon III and flashed superstar tendencies. Heading into this season with a new coach, a new quarterback, and, seemingly, the keys to the backfield should have meant a big season and his dynasty value showed it.
Alas, Denver ended up re-signing Gordon. That new coach? Denver hired Nathaniel Hackett from Green Bay, the same Green Bay that equally deployed two running backs in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. And that quarterback? Russell Wilson looks like a shell of his former self. The breakout has turned into a breakdown.
Dynasty Impact: While it’s certainly not the time to abandon the Williams hype train, it may be time to tap the brake. The Broncos offense as a whole doesn’t look right and is taking Williams’ fantasy value with it. But for his dynasty managers, all that means is Williams is a startable, productive running back if not the home-run hitter we hoped he could be. Should you mortgage the future (e.g. first-round rookie picks) for him anytime soon? No. But if a current Williams dynasty manager is willing to part with him at a discount? Then yes. But for most, he should be held for now.
That’s So Raven
DUUUUUUUUUUUV!
Tune in on FOX! pic.twitter.com/PLUybzAfVw
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 25, 2022
It’s been a long time coming but Devin Duvernay is finally fulfilling the (relative) potential he showed coming into the NFL. Taken in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Duvernay was drafted on the heels of a breakout senior season at Texas when he totaled over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. Heading to Baltimore, Duvernay hasn’t quite lived up to that last season in Austin, failing to top 300 receiving yards in either of his two pro seasons. He did flash playmaking ability last year when he made the Pro Bowl as a kick returner but hasn’t seen enough action on offense to be fantasy relevant.
This brings us to 2022 and Duvernay’s first three games of the season. After Baltimore let Sammy Watkins go and traded away Marquise Brown, Duvernay had a lot easier path to snaps and targets. On the season, he’s only seen eight targets but caught all of them for 121 yards and three touchdowns and returned one more for a score. The four total touchdowns he has this season is one more than he’s scored his entire career.
Dynasty Impact: While Duvernay is making plenty of splash plays built for social media (see the tweet above), it’s just not enough to make him reliable for your dynasty team. The three receiving touchdowns are nice but that’s on just eight receptions, a level of efficiency no one can keep up throughout a season let alone multiple campaigns. Currently, our DLF rankers have Duvernay ranked pretty low which is where he should stay for now. He’s a fun player to start for deeper leagues but that’s all he is for now.
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