The sample size is large enough to make decisions… or so they say. We have enough information to identify the trends from the first three weeks to start making bets for the rest of the season. Here are five dynasty transactions to make before week four:
Tyreek Hill, MIA WR – Buy
This is going to be the obvious one. Sure, the Dolphins won on Sunday and moved to 3-0 on the season. Hill had a down game, which leads to a potential buy window. Looking deeper, the team only dropped back to pass 22 times and Hill remains the number one regardless of what else is going on in the game script. With the surge of young wide receivers, look for a window to buy a guy still in his prime that isn’t performing as well as similar players (Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs) in the same age range.
The Move – Target the team with Hill who might be 0-3 or 1-2. Consider making an aggressive move such as selling a similar wide receiver (over the age of 26) like Mike Williams, Allen Robinson or Brandin Cooks along with a late first-round pick in exchange for Hill (and any bonus you can get). He should give you another season of elite production after 2022.
Derrick Henry, TEN RB – Sell
This one is still going to be tough. Henry bounced back with an RB2 finish in week three and managed five catches and a touchdown on the ground. However, it might be safe to say the once unstoppable Henry is slowing down. Through three weeks, he is averaging only 2.7 yards after contact and of all twenty-one players with at least 25 carries, Henry ranks 16th in broken tackles with only four.
The Move – This will be a tough sell. Not only does Henry have a large amount of risk, but his production also has not warranted dynasty managers being willing to buy all that risk from you at the current market price. Capitalize on the big week and consider moving him for any future first-round pick (target 2024, it is easier to get) and a “lesser” running back such as Rashaad Penny, who might be able to slot into the same starting lineup slot.
Romeo Doubs, GB WR – Buy
This is a conviction and inflection point on Doubs. He led the team in every usage category in week three and eclipsed the 20-point mark for the first time. The fourth-round pick out of Nevada has exceeded expectations since being drafted and because of the “lack of pedigree”, expect people to look to move him this week. Buy the fade as Doubs has premier opportunity tied to the greatest “elevator quarterback” in the history of the league in Aaron Rodgers. For more about his profile, check out Eric Hardter’s 2022 NFL Draft Profile.
The Move – The consensus is going to be “sell high” on Doubs. After all, he does not have the profile we typically look for and that will lead to many peddling their shares on the open market looking to “make a profit.” If you have Doubs in numerous leagues, I do not hate the idea, but I am also considering sending players with pedigree (Skyy Moore or George Pickens come to mind as rookies) or proven peaked out receivers such as Allen Robinson or Brandin Cooks in deals to acquire Doubs. It is likely you cannot get a future first for any of these players, but Doubs and a second-round pick would not be a terrible starting point. Prioritize leagues where you already have Rodgers.
Raheem Blackshear, CAR RB – Add
Blackshear was signed off the Buffalo practice squad to the Panthers 53-man roster this past week. He was inactive in week three but the move coincided with Christian McCaffrey popping up on the injury report. He posted an elite 100 percentile market share in college (over 25 percent) and has a clear, niche role in the NFL if he ever sees the field. The situation would not be great but nothing the Panthers have done shows us they have any faith in giving any significant work to D’Onta Foreman or Chuba Hubbard. Add him for free.
The Move – Simply add him on waivers in leagues with at least 30 or more roster spots. Any leagues with points per target or any bonuses for receptions are the priority. It is very unlikely you can find use for him in point-per-carry leagues as he likely gets no early-down work, but think Ameer Abdullah from last season when he was borderline usable for a few weeks at the end of the year. A prime, dirt cheap zero RB target.
TJ Hockenson, WR DET – Sell/Pivot Down
We have back-to-back weeks with a Detroit Lion on this list. The Hockenson pivot down will be much more difficult to achieve and his sub-17 percent market share on the season is concerning for those hoping he would jump into the elite usage range. Unfortunately, the ceiling might be what we see with Hock, the current TE7 in ADP with very low odds of jumping into the next tier considering multiple players have joined the team and continue to steal his opportunity. Jameson Williams returning soon only adds to that risk. This is not to say Hockenson cannot be what he is, but that is not worth the name cache and profile attached to his current value.
The Move – Consider moving off Hock for his value in picks (early second-round pick) along with another usage monster replacement such as Evan Engram. I made a similar deal sending Hockenson for Dalton Schultz and a 2023 second-round pick. There are many deals to be had in this range and when you concede that the elite range is likely unattainable, make the deal to add extra value to your dynasty bank.
Conclusion – We are three weeks in. Conclusions can start being drawn based on a growing sample size. Teams can start identifying their direction and although it is still early, being the first to market on either side might be more crucial in 2022 given the hype of the 2023 rookie class. Assess your squad and be proactive heading into week four!
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