Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week Two

Peter Howard

Welcome! This is a weekly series where we look at player regression trends on a week-by-week basis.

Throughout the season, I’ll collect the weekly data and post it on a sheet here.

Enough preamble, nerd up!

Last Week

Last week’s results are below. The full list can be found in my sheets linked above.

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Running backs bounced up on their volume significantly, whereas very few fell back. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift continued to operate efficiently in split backfields and James Robinson earned a significantly larger share of the job in week two.

On the other hand, receiving positions were the reverse. Those who were overly efficient in week one maintained in week two while underperformers stayed lower than their volume currently suggests.

I think we’re seeing offenses adjust to the season as they try out their attack. I’d also expect the wide receiver position to regress as a whole as the weeks pass by.

Week two: Should produce more next week

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Quick Takes:

  • No one will be surprised to find Justin Jefferson back inside the top 12 next week.
  • DK Metcalf is on an offense I’d imagine will continue to disappoint on its volume, but it’s good to see him still getting that volume. He is a decent buy-low.
  • Volume is bleeding out wherever it can in Green Bay, but I don’t think I’d buy into Tyrion Davis-Price as anything other than a DFS or waiver wire play.

Brandin Cooks, WR HOU

I wrote Cooks up for my target share article as well. We look more long-term for underrated volume in that series. Turning up here suggests the window on his bounce back is shorter than most. Houston may continue to be up against it looking for positive game scripts as the Bears have only allowed the 15th-most PPR points to the wide receiver position so far this season. But with Cooks’s volume, and regression due, I think the buy window on his top-12 potential upside is narrowing.

Marquise Brown, WR ARI

There’s always a perpetual buy-low wide receiver as the “market” refuses to value them. Like Cooks, who is the definition of the old guard for this cohort, Brown may well be the next-gen version.

While I’ve tried to enjoy Greg Dortch’s season (10.6 expected points per game) it’s clear the real volume (and value) of opportunity is going to Brown (16 EPG). We just haven’t quite seen that payoff yet.

I’d expect it to, in a big way, sooner rather than later.

Javonte Williams, RB DEN

He has already stolen the higher value touches in 2022, but his production has been disappointing, finishing outside the top 24 last week. I think Melvin Gordon’s reduction from a 30% opportunity player to a 20% one could be underrated by some as the Denver offense continues to try and finds its feet under its new signal-caller Russell Wilson.

AJ Dillon, RB GB

Aaron Jones is amazing. We know this. We also know the Packers like to share their running back volume around, although Jamaal Williams is currently doing the same thing with D’Andre Swift so we could maybe blame his talent instead of the team, I’m not sure.

Either way, so far in 2022 Dillon has been the volume leader. Despite an amazing (too efficient) week from Jones, I’d expect Dillon to be more consistently startable at least as a top 24 running back.

Week Two: Should have less production

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Quick takes:

  • I think D’Andre Swift and Breece Hall’s role is significantly smaller than we’d all hoped. While I normally don’t advocate for expecting volume to grow (even by week two) I think the overall volume last week shows there is potential for their overall percentage to grow moving forward. Both are talented enough that I wouldn’t bet against it… yet.
  • Darrell Henderson and Darrell Williams occupy valuable but limited roles in offenses that will produce. They are perennial ZeroRB wins, but unless there’s a change to the depth chart, they shouldn’t be started consistently if you have options.

Rashod Bateman, WR BAL

This man is supremely talented and will probably strip my top 36 expectations for him to the bone and then make me eat them. However, he is living on talent right now. The team continues to push the majority of the receiving volume to the tight end position, and not just Mark Andrews.

Bateman shouldn’t continue to outscore his touches by ten fantasy points every week… in theory.

There’s no reason to not like Bateman in dynasty. I mean – efficiency is how Ja’Marr Chase lived last year. Still, if you can trade up into the top tier of players using him, that’s not a bad option right now.

Curtis Samuel, WR

Yeah, this looks real so far. His expected point volume is immense (19.3 EP) and while he was too efficient last week, I think he should continue to be a starter given his volume so far (currently 10 targets a game and 2.5 rush attempts).

In dynasty, I would trade for first-round pick value. This is too unexpected for me not to be nervous.

Mike Williams, WR LAC

I’d hate to say history may repeat, but with Keenan Allen out last week, Williams got the volume and overproduced it by 9 points. On the season, he has 11 EPG and a 14.2 PPG, for a season-long FPOE of +3.2. I think it’s a selling window with Allen on track to play week three.

Mike Gesicki, TE MIA

He caught a touchdown. I guess even Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can’t catch them all – but they continue to try. I don’t think we should expect six passing touchdowns a week, so there’s rarely going to be enough going around to include Gesicki. However, he’s a good player on a solid offense. So, he is more rosterable then startable, in dynasty anyway.

Noah Brown, WR DAL

Brown is falling down. I don’t care how fun this is, I wish I could root for it, but production is going to shift back harder towards CeeDee Lamb at some point and Brown’s showing all the warning signs of an overproducer.

Anyway, that’s about all I have time for this week. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you in week two.

peter howard
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Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week Two