Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades
Wow, what a week! It was certainly not as we all expected things to go heading into the week. However, strange occurrences bring an opportunity to take advantage. So let’s dive into some moves you could be making after all 11% of the fantasy season is already in the books.
Drake London, WR ATL
I try to utilize slow starts by some rookies as an opportunity to buy in and grab them potentially at a slight discount. That may not be possible with London, who has posted solid performances in back-to-back games and is averaging 9.5 targets, 6.5 receptions, 80 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. If you look at the week two performance, London saw a target share of 48%. That is incredible for a rookie in only his second NFL game. He looks like the real deal and a player that the Falcons will likely build the passing game around for the foreseeable future.
It would not be shocking to see London approaching the top 12 dynasty WRs as soon as this season. If you’re not rostering him, now could very well be the final opportunity to get in before the price is unobtainable. From a price perspective, it is unlikely to be cheap. The Trade Analyzer has a 2023 first and second being enough to get the deal done. Honestly, I’d be thrilled paying that price. Yes, the 2023 class is expected to be loaded, but a young elite wide receiver is what we’re all looking to build the future of our franchises around.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
I’ve been a noted critic of Montgomery, calling him nothing more than a volume-based RB2 and a replaceable talent. After week one, I felt pretty content with that evaluation. However, a more impressive week two may have opened a small selling window. Khalil Herbert split carries in week one and looked the more impressive back. However, Montgomery was back to leading the way in week two with a 77.3% opportunity share.
I still believe Montgomery is a replaceable talent, but the big reason I think he is a sell would be the pass/run splits. Through two games, Chicago has averaged 14 pass attempts per game. The NFL average currently is 35 attempts per game. The second lowest passing attempt per game is 26. The Bears will pass the ball more and run less; that much is almost inevitable. As that happens, Montgomery’s rushing volume can potentially reduce. If you can get out on the pending Free agent Running back, this could be your last opportunity.
Price-wise, I would be looking for ideally around two seconds, although I may potentially look to pivot from Montgomery to a younger running back. Montgomery and a second for somebody like Kenneth Walker seem like a great move if you could make that move.
Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
“The best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck” is a quote that seems to have been used constantly over the past two years. Lawrence didn’t exactly live up to the billing in his rookie season. However, on Sunday, he looked like the future star quarterback. He was spreading the ball around the field, targetting eight different receivers on track to a dominating 24-0 win over the Colts.
Lawrence’s touch in the short passing game was incredible; he was 22 of 23 for 184 and two touchdowns on passes less than ten yards downfield. He struggled statistically going deep. However, perhaps his most impressive throw on Sunday was a potential deep touchdown to Jamaal Agnew that the receiver let slip through his hands.
The fantasy production hasn’t entirely caught up with the performance as Lawrence has only put up mediocre stat lines of 13.4 and 18.5 fantasy points. However, this is a gamble on pure talent and the fantasy production coming over time. Currently, the QB11 in September ADP Lawrence could be a great player to target on a rebuilding team. If you could pivot from an older quarterback like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson with a little sweetener to buy back years, it could benefit you long term.
Chris Olave, WR NO
There is a definite young theme to this week’s options. However, now can be your last opportunity to acquire players before they blow up. Olave came as close to blowing up without actually doing it as you can. In week two, he saw a 32.5% target share and a massive 334 air yards. He is one of only five players to clear 300 air yards in a game since 2016. He finished with only five receptions for 80 yards with a fumble. That fumble could easily have been a 95-yard touchdown had Olave not stumbled and coughed up the ball.
All of the peripheral numbers are there for him to break out. Olave is seeing the high-value targets we hoped he would when the Saints drafted him at 11th overall. Much like London, if you can pounce now and grab him before the breakout happens, you will be sitting very pretty at the end of the season.
It may be that with the hype around the 2023 draft picks, you may be able to tempt Olave away for a 2023 first. It may be that the sensible move is to pivot off an established player who is producing at the moment to grab the longer-term potential of Olave. Christian Kirk, plus a second-rounder, could be the type of move you’re able to make.
Marcus Mariota, QB ATL, and Desmond Ridder, QB ATL
This is both a buy and a sell. The Falcons have looked better than I – and many – expected through two weeks. They ran both the Saints and the Rams close. However, they are 0-2 and already far behind the playoff race.
I’ve said this several times, but the Falcons need to decide what they’re doing at quarterback moving forward. Having spent a third-round pick in this year’s draft, they need to know whether Desmond Ridder is the future before they head into the 2023 draft, where there is a potentially loaded quarterback class. To make this decision, they need to allow Ridder to start so they can see him in live game action. The decision is drawing nearer as Atlanta continue to lose.
If you want to get ahead of the price rise once he does start, now is the time to move. It doesn’t come without risk because if Ridder disappoints, the Falcons will likely draft a quarterback in the 2023 class, and Ridder will be a career backup. However, if he impresses and the Falcons commit to him long-term, his value will skyrocket quickly. I would possibly balk at paying anything more than a future second which may not be enough to tempt him away, but I would absolutely be asking the questions at the very least.
With this potential Ridder start looming as soon as he does, Mariota’s value will plummet. Given his rushing upside, he is a helpful starter in superflex leagues. If you could shift Mariota and get a future second in return, I’d be hitting accept immediately.
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