After two weeks, we have enough information to start spotting trends and making bets about how the rest of the year is going to go. Here are five dynasty transactions to make before week three:
Evan Engram, JAC TE – Buy
If you only look at the box scores, Engram looks like another “nice” option at a messy position. After all, 18.4 PPR points on 12 targets through two weeks is nothing to write home about. Look deeper at the numbers and consider the fact that Engram has run routes on 83 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s pass attempts. This usage screams of a big game coming and I want to be ahead of it.
The Move – Normally I would advocate only buying in high-leverage TE formats (1.75 or more PPR or start two leagues) but this one extends even further. Any team without one of the top six at the position or a league where you are starting Lawrence is one I am open to buying. Try to buy using a wide receiver or a player plus a third-round pick. Consider giving a second-round pick in specific formats.
Trey Lance, SF QB – Sell
The most unfortunate injury of the week (and possibly of the entire season) was Lance suffering a Fibula Fracture and Ligament Disruption that will reportedly keep him out potentially into the 2023 season. The reality is, Lance had many skeptics and now will enter his third season with San Francisco with four career games started and competing for value slots with a brand new class. Not to mention, he will be a mobile quarterback coming back from a severe lower leg injury. The number of barriers he must overcome to even get back to where his value stood before the 2022 season (QB8) now become almost insurmountable and as a portfolio player, I do not want to carry an asset with no flexibility for the next year.
The Move – I will be frank. In a 12-team superflex league, I am selling for any single 2023 or 2024 first-round pick. No questions asked. It does not matter where my team is. I want a flexible asset rather than a flatlined investment. I would move Lance for Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers and other options in the same tier. Worst-case scenario? I buy Lance next spring when he is going in the fifth, sixth or seventh round of startup drafts.
Damien Williams, ATL RB – Buy/Add
This one is a complete shot in the dark. Williams was recently placed on injured reserve with fractured ribs and will be out until week six. However, there is a significant chance he returns to a solid role on a team without much competition. The Cordarrelle Patterson usage is historically unsustainable given where he came from and I am always looking at places to find cheap spots to start production at running back.
The Move – Williams is potentially on waivers but most likely on someone’s injured reserve. He can be obtained for a fourth-round draft pick or more likely, a filler player who holds very little value on a roster. Players like Terrace Marshall, Laviska Shenault, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell or Kenny Golladay. The name cache of these types are great darts to throw at the board in-efforts to flip your roster construction back to perfection.
Ty Johnson, NYJ RB – Add
Johnson should be available on most waiver wires and is the clear number three option in a backfield that has commanded 27 targets in the first two weeks. After beating out Zonovan Knight for the gameday active spot, Johnson earned three targets in the week two win over the Browns. He posted a 34-375-2 line through the air on 55 targets in 2021 and should be next in line if either Breece Hall or Michael Carter missed time. The fact that both of them have name cache has caused dynasty managers to totally forget about Johnson. Stash him now.
The Move – Simply add him on waivers in leagues with at least 28 or more roster spots. Any leagues with points per target or any bonuses for receptions are the priority. It is very unlikely you can find a player on the waiver wire with historical production and an injury away this cheaply. Find a spot for him on your roster and wait.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET – Sell / Pivot Down
By now you have probably heard that St. Brown made history on Sunday by posting his eighth straight game with at least eight receptions. He ranks in the top five in the league in targets and fantasy points and continues to prove those citing his draft capital and lack of target competition in 2021 as a reason he could not continue to thrive. With that said, Jameson Williams is looming and the current market on St. Brown has people talking about him as a top eight wide receiver in dynasty. The move is to explore potential pivots where you can add another wide receiver and additional assets while the market is robust. This is not a bet against St. Brown. This is a bet against St. Brown being elite.
The Move – Consider sending offers where you give up St. Brown in exchange for a 2023 first-round pick plus another wide receiver such as Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith or JuJu Smith-Schuster. This may seem aggressive but the process is simple. Acquire a future first-round pick along with another wide receiver with a similar range of outcomes. Prioritize stacks, be flexible and be the aggressor.
We now have two weeks of data. Trust the usage but be skeptical of misleading numbers not being predictive of future production. Routes run are great, except when a player has no history of being able to command targets (David Njoku). Past production is fantastic except when a player has shown a steady decline for three straight seasons in almost every efficiency metric (Matt Ryan). In other words, be smart with where you make offers and continue to have a week-to-week scope as we are only entering week three.
- Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Four - September 27, 2022
- Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Three - September 20, 2022
- Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week Two - September 16, 2022