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Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Three: Road Trip Edition

Week two is in the books! As always, I’m answering every question, every week! New this year are my weekly dynasty team tracking and strategy thoughts.

PLEASE READ FULL POST EACH WEEK!

EDIT: I’m on the road for the next three weeks with VERY challenging internet access. For that reason, I’ll will keep this much shorter. Please get your questions in early to improve my chances of responding. Remember the “TNF” at the top if it applies. 

Week Three

It’s great to have the first two weeks behind us. Weeks one and two are always the most difficult as we week one provides many surprises while week two finally allows the development of trends which we need to make better lineup calls in weeks three and beyond. Still lots of mistakes to be made but we can better gauge these trends in snaps and production to improve our success rate.

Looking back on the first two weeks, it was still a minefield out there, and I can’t remember a more chaotic start to a season. The injuries are already starting to pile up and we have some concerning player trends which are certain to shape the next few weeks of the season and, potentially, the final standings in fantasy.

We’ve added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF’s new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we’ll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren’t missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games, winning two of them. While I’d love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don’t see a repeat of 2021. That doesn’t mean I’m not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13. In all seriousness, it’s only one week and while some trends are worth investigating, we don’t want to overreact, especially after a single game.

Following week two, I’m now 11-15, perhaps my worst start ever.  My two best championship teams from 2021 are now 0-4. My longest running league, the one that essentially founded DLF in fact, lost by .3 in week one followed by a 1.7 point loss in week two. I started Jerry Jeudy in favor of a Dak-less CeeDee Lamb and Lamb had a good game while Jeudy exited with yet another injury. Game over.

I always like to know why my teams lose, whether after only one week or after eight, it’s a good idea to get ‘inside’ each loss and figure out if it was due to luck of the draw or injuries as opposed to bad build, taking too many chances with rookies or misplaying the matchups. When analyzing my teams, it would come as no shock to any of you that there are standard themes and builds I use (check the following section). My teams which took a loss this week are invested in players such as

In another league, I am now down to Baker Mayfield as my primary quarterback after losing both Dak Prescott and Trey Lance. In yet another league, I took an “L” with the second highest point total in week two, losing to the team putting up top points. It happens. The moral of this story is sometimes bad things happen to good teams. Heading into Monday night’s games I was 11-2 and played against a lot of Stefon Diggs and Jalen Hurts while having players such as Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins and A.J. Brown going.

Looking at my teams, I still like how they’re scoring and the build(s) so aside from the team on my third quarterback, I won’t be looking for any trades.

Strategy and Trends

This is what I posted following week one:

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven’t updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won’t see WR1 players play 50% of a team’s offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It’s the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

As we saw in week one, we had some ridiculous usage and offensive production which badly impacted some of my/our expectations for the week. It happens every year in week one, but this year seemed much worse than expected. It’s not until week three or so, give or take a week, that offensive schemes and chemistry start to develop and offensive units begin to ‘click.’ This is why we don’t overreact to one week of statistical output, but that doesn’t mean we don’t adjust. As such, I most certainly will be adjusting my advice based on what we saw.

What I can tell you is that my rotation to top receivers already feels much better than my outgoing tried-and-true build methodology. It will take another year or two to complete the augmentation, and running backs are still important, but I feel much better about the shift.

Running back usage feels very different in 2022 and there’s been a discernable NFL team shift in how they are rotating backs and even in play calling. Very clear to me here that this is now a wide receiver league and my move over the past two years to more of a receiver focus in my builds is going to pay dividends. In come weeks, I’ll take a look at the breadth of scoring between the two positions and see what i find. Stay tuned!

Betting Lines and Props

I was 1-2 in week two, one yard short of being 2-1.

I took the over on Mahomes’ 2.5 passing touchdown prop and his shovel pass which would have given him three touchdowns came up one yard short.

I also took the Bengals to cover on the Cowboys which wasn’t that close. The Cowboys rallied behind Cooper Rush while the Bengals continue to have offensive line woes.

I also took the Bills to cover a large spread vs. the Titans and that panned out even better than expected.

I will try to update my week three picks later this week as long as I can get time to do research and have the Internet to post. Check back on Friday!

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I’m going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you’ve all come to expect from me. I’ve been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

  • Please don’t ask me to set your entire lineup
  • Put “TNF” as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
  • Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
  • Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
  • Keep your questions as brief as possible – Story questions add a lot of time
  • I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don’t worry, I’ll be back to it.
  • It’s easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I’m wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I’m still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

Let’s do this…

Jeff Haverlack
Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Three: Road Trip Edition
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mdane
10 days ago

TNF
Hey Jeff, should I flex Kareem Hunt vs PIT or Josh Jacobs at TEN?
I lean Josh Jacobs. Thanks!

mdane
Reply to  mdane
10 days ago

It’s also half-ppr scoring.

Mitchell Golden
10 days ago

Hi Jeff! This is for a 12 team, 0.5 PPR league.
I need a WR2, and I need one bad… or is it that all my options are bad? Hard to tell. Juju scares me, Noah Brown’s high snap % and target rate appeals to me, and I’m a Patriots fan so I both love and hate the potential for Agholor’s budding connection with Jones.
WR2: Juju Smith-Schuster, Noah Brown, Nelson Agholor. I also have Russell Gage and Julio Jones, but struggling to see either of those as an option.

Ashley Moser
10 days ago

12 team full PPR/1.25 TE PPR 1 QB

Assuming JK Dobbins is out or on a strict pitch count who looks good for my flex spot:
Mooney, Noah Brown, Dortch, McKenzie, Jamaal Williams

Geronimo Colon
9 days ago

Good day Jeff,
12 tm PPR, SFLX, start 2 RB/WR
will need to start 4 WRs so looking for your astute knowledge in ranking the following WRs: Noah Brown, Lazard, S Shepard, McKenzie, G Wilson (NYJ) n R Woods.
My current feeling: Wilson, Brown (unless Gallup returns), Shepard and Lazard.
Much appreciated and good luck the ROS with ur teams (stick with the process – hahaha)

9 days ago

Hey there Jeff, great advice starting Sutton last week. 10 team, PPR, non-superflex. I need to fill my flex spot and I have Sutton or Josh Jacobs. I assume Sutton, but I would like your feedback.

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
8 days ago

Thanks, you are the best.

William Morrison
9 days ago

Hi Jeff,

Grateful as always, but this season keeps getting worse haha. I lost Lance, have no idea of Herbert’s status, and am otherwise down to Fields (in SF). A few guys trapped the market, and now my league extorts people for QBs (Mayfield for Etienne and Aiyuk). Would you pay that kind of price for a backend guy to be your QB2 (maybe QB3 if Herbert’s OK) the rest of the way as a competitor or take your chances playing a skill position guy in your SF slot? 10 team, SF, half-PPR.

Thanks!
Wil

William Morrison
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
8 days ago

This is exactly the advice I needed- thanks a ton, Jeff, and good luck to you this week as well. Hope your team without Dak or Lance fares well!

Jamie Horton
9 days ago

TNF
Hey Jeff – great advice last week starting Amari Cooper, I’ll start him again this week.

Flex question – need to start 2: Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott.
I’m leaning Jones and Hunt again – however Jones vs Tampa is concerning.

Also if Kittle is healthy would you consider starting him and Knox? I’ve got some injuries this week.

Thanks as always

Patrick Hanley
9 days ago

Hello Jeff, wishing you well on your road trip!
Only one Q this week, at RB
(Standard scoring)

I start 2 RBs. Planning to start Swift & A Jones, but with GB @ TB, I have the option of starting Miles Sanders @ Was instead.

Hard to bench AJ but would like your take.

With gratitude,
Patrick

Patrick Simmons
9 days ago

Hi Jeff
Thanks for this service. Half PPR league
WR2 – Jarvis Landry (@CAR), Sterling Shepard (vs DAL) or Nelson Agholor (vs BAL)
Flex – James Robinson (@LAC) or Damien Pierce (@CHI)

Thanks 🙏 again for the help

Jason Hewitt
9 days ago

16 team ppr

Currently starting Swift, Kupp, Tyreek Hill, G Davis and Bateman.
Other options zeke, Pollard, Mooney, Godwin, Goedert, Garrett Wilson, L Thomas

Tim Hoffner
8 days ago

TNF
Hi Jeff, 12 team PPR. I need 3 WR’s (could be 4 if I replace D. Mongomery) and a bit unclear this week on what to do.
R. Bateman
AJ Brown
Hollywood Brown
A. Cooper
J. Dodson
J. Meyers
I usually play Bateman, A. Brown and M. Brown. Thanks for the help!!
tim

Kris H
8 days ago

10 Team ½ point PPR
Need two of four RBs:
S Barkley vs DAL, J Robinson @ LAC, C Akers @ ARI and J Wilson @ DEN.
Need three of four WRs:
With Evans suspended, I have to pick from K Allen vs JAX (assuming he plays), R Bateman @ NEP, C Lamb @ NYG and DJ Moore vs NOS.
Thanks in advance

Mark D'Angelo
8 days ago

I made some dumb mistakes last week. Time to turn to the expert!!
0.5 PPR for all.
1 Flex: James Robinson, Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Gabriel Davis (Leaning Allen if he plays to stack with Herbert, I already have Diggs so Gabe Davis a tough play but I could make a case for any of these guys).
1 TE: Hayden Hurst or Dawson Knox (Knox by a nose, I think the TDs are coming)
1 DEF: Eagles D @ WAS or Bears D vs. Houston (Eagles D probably better in a vacuum – wish it was home)
2 WR + 1 Flex: DJ Moore, Higgins, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, James Robinson, DK Metcalf (At WR I’m leaning DJ Moore and Higgins. At Flex I’m leaning Garrett Wilson though I have a good feeling about DK this week.
Thank you!

Mark D'Angelo
Reply to  Mark D'Angelo
8 days ago

Bears D no longer an option so disregard the DEF.

J Cakes
8 days ago

Hi Jeff! Bit of a stinker last week from lots of studs, especially the ones on my team. New week so a new round of lineup question. Standard scoring, 0.5PPR Start FIVE (the ones listed first are my selections)

JT vs KCC -Ineffective Matty Ice worries me
Fournette vs GBP – he is the RB1 there
Adams @ TEN – bounce back game
AJ Brown @ WAS – Hurts’ WR1
Chase @ NYJ – will Burrow survive the year

Javonte @ DEN – SNF special
Wilson vs SFO – split backfield, maybe?
MT @ CAR – 2 games, 3 TDs. He’s back!

For context, I do have Burrow and like the Burrow-Chase stack

wretch
8 days ago

Hey Jeff,
0.5 PPR
W3 Higgins or Waddle. I’m stuck on this one. I should play Waddle, just not sure how the MIA offense is going to perform against BUFF. 85 & 17 are so close.
TE1 – Everett or Hockenson – I just acquired Hockenson. Everett has been my TE1 so far but am concerned about Herbert’s health + he’s got a late start so my fallback would be Fant. I’m leaning Hockenson just in case due to the start times.

wretch
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
6 days ago

Thanks Jeff!

Robert Woolmer
7 days ago

Hi Jeff. Hope you have a great trip! Half PPR flex spot. Thinking Michael Thomas and it’s not close? Other options (in my order of preference) are London, Henderson, ARob, Zeke or Hall. Thanks alot!

Robert Woolmer
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
5 days ago

Sounds incredible. Very jealous! Thanks as always for the advice it’s much appreciated. Hoping we do see an ARob breakout even if it will be on my bench! As a Jags fan I’d love him to make it in LA. Enjoy the rest of the trip and hope week 3 is kind to you!

Scott Davis
7 days ago

Hi Jeff,
Superflex, starting Hurts, have Herbert but ribs are concerning so are either Wentz or Jimmy G better options? High floor is the goal this week. Thanks!

Ryan Coppinger
7 days ago

Thanks for fitting this in Jeff, you’re a champ!
Just one question for me.
12 team SF. PPR (no TEP). Who should I start at TE? Knox v. Miami, Irv Smith v. DET, Tonyan v. TB or Engram v. LAC

Stephen Atkinson
6 days ago

Enjoy your trip Kemo.
PPR
1) Starting Davante, MT, and Waddle. Need two flex from Gabe Davis (assuming he’s good to go), Dortch, Duvernay, and Akers.

2) With Jacobs probably out, need two flex from Jeff Wilson, Mostert, McKinnon, and Penny.

3) Again a flex issue. Need two from Aiyuk, Jeudy (if active), Lazard, James Cook, Stevenson, and MVS.

4) How about a WR #3 from Lazard, Duvernay, Dortch, and Nico Collins?

5) Trade question – Been offered Burrow and Pacheco for Kittle, Edmonds, and Mostert on a team where I have Dak out for at least a few more weeks. The “analyzers” seem to say Kittle straight up for Burrow is about right. I have literally no one (Howard) behind Kittle for TE right now. I picked up Flacco for this week off BB waivers after missing out on Wentz (and a win) last week for a $2 underbid. Trade or stand pat hoping to make do with whatever QB I can get off waivers for now?

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
5 days ago

Thx. Still haven’t gotten to Yellowstone but should be soon with retirement.

They are now saying that Jacobs will make the trip with the team and should play. Do you favor him over Penny in that situation?

Watkins on IR today might give more targets to Lazard so I’ll lean that way too.

Hate to give up Kittle but I’m not sure if I want to be playing Flacco or whomever else I get bid off waivers for the next three or four weeks in a $$ league. There literally isn’t a decent TE available right now so I might have to try to trade there. Enjoy Jellystone. Say hi to Yogi and Boo Boo……

James Richardson
6 days ago

Hey Jeff…

In a half PPR, how concerned should I be with Connor playing a full game or at all? I have Z. White, Jamaal Williams, or Darrell Henderson that I could sub instead. How should I go with this?
As usual, thanks so much for your advice.
James Richardson

Eastman Tiu
6 days ago

Hi Jeff

I’ll keep this short and sweet.

0.5 PPR. Need one.

RB Henderson at Cards
WR Theilen vs Lions

I also have RB Singletary at Fins, bur given his usage the last two weeks, I have trouble trusting that. I’m leaning Henderson but it could be some decent scoring available for Theilen.

Thanks, I hope you are having a good road trip.

ET

Brad Fleck
5 days ago

12 team 1pt ppr. Play in Flex position T McLaurin, Allen Robinson or Damien Harris.

Stephen Atkinson
5 days ago

One more for the road –
PPR
On the team where we’ve decided Lazard was our best shot for #3 WR, I’ll still need to choose two flex from Duvernay, Dortch, Akers, or Dameon Pierce. I would normally lean on Pierce but if Kamara is out (my usual #2 RB), I’ll have to put him or Akers in that spot. Kamara is an early game which helps a bit. Thx. Don’t feed the bears…. except Yogi and Boo Boo.

Paul Wright
5 days ago

Hey Jeff in a tight bind 12 team dynasty ppr
Wr start 3 Wr who should I start
Jeudy(probably out)
Evans (suspended)
Gabe Davis (Questionable)
Samuel
Dotson
Mckenzie
Beasley

Not alot on waiver
Dortch
Perryman
DeAndre Carter

Thanks

James Richardson
5 days ago

With Herbert potentially out for the late game I am concerned with playing Mike Williams in a full PPR. Other choices are Darnell Mooney, Elijah Moore, Dorch, Darrell Henderson, C-Pat, or Duvernay. For some strange reason I am leaning towards Dorch. What do you think? Thanks a bunch!

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