Dynasty League Football


Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week One

Peter Howard picks out some positive and negative regression candidates after week one.

Breece Hall

Welcome to the Regression Trend Report, where we look at player regression trends on a week-by-week basis.

Throughout the season, I’ll collect the weekly data and post it on a sheet here.

Enough preamble, nerd up!

Last year

Last year I created a tool to look for those regression candidates. It was successful and surprisingly resulted in a signal for players who are likely to fall back from their previous week’s performance.

Despite capturing a group of five to eight players on average, the players “due” to fall back the next week did so: 80% of the time at wide receiver, 70% of the time at tight end, and nearly 60% of the time at running back

Running back was the lowest hit group in players falling in production. This makes sense since a player’s average volume takes time to catch up when an injury occurs.

The players “due” to bounce back did so: 52% of the time at running back, 40% of the time at wide receiver, and 51% at tight end.

Week One: Bounce Back

There are a lot of things we could highlight but I’m just going to highlight the things I think may be the biggest questions or most unnoticed by the crowd.


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Dynasty Fantasy Football Regression Trends: Week One
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