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Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Two

Glad to have a rough week one behind us! As always, I’m answering every question, every week! New this year are my weekly dynasty team tracking and strategy thoughts.

PLEASE READ FULL POST EACH WEEK!

EDIT: Week two bets updated

Week Two

Welcome to week two, better known as "overreaction week." This is the week where we as dynasty coaches freak out about the first week and either rage quit fantasy football altogether or start considering crazy trades to save our season. In most cases, I strongly suggest you sit on your hands for at least one more week before doing either. As an unwritten rule, I don't make any moves until at least week four unless a significant injury has occurred.

We've added a new service! Every Sunday morning, you can join DLF's new Discord server to ask those last minute lineup advice questions, or anything else which may be on your mind. In the very near future, we'll cut off lineup advice on Saturday night and use this Discord channel to ensure your questions aren't missed Sunday AM. This new channel is taking our community interaction to the next level.

2022 Team Tracking

Just as a refresher, in 2021 I sent 40% of tracked dynasty teams to championship games, winning two of them. While I'd love to say it was all due to my management, luck still plays a huge role in our favorite hobby and I don't see a repeat of 2021. That doesn't mean I'm not gunning for 100%, however. In 2022 I added three new leagues to be tracked, bringing my total to 13. In all seriousness, it's only one week and while some trends are worth investigating, we don't want to overreact, especially after a single game.

Following week one, I'm 5-8, one of my worst weeks in a long time. And, just by coincidence, every one of my 2021 championship teams took an "L" on the week. My longest running league, the one that essentially founded DLF in fact, lost by .3 (to fellow DLF'er Ken Kelly) and I had Javonte Williams and Albert Okwuegbunam going. Was really hoping for the Broncos to go for it on fourth-and-five. But, alas....

I always like to know why my teams lose, whether after only one week or after eight, it's a good idea to get 'inside' each loss and figure out if it was due to luck of the draw or injuries as opposed to bad build, taking too many chances with rookies or misplaying the matchups. When analyzing my teams, it would come as no shock to any of you that there are standard themes and builds I use (check the following section). My teams which took a loss this week are invested in players such as:

  • Dak Prescott, QB
  • Najee Harris, RB
  • Cam Akers, RB
  • JK Dobbins, RB
  • Tee Higgins, WR
  • Chris Godwin, WR
  • CeeDee Lamb, WR
  • Darnell Mooney, WR
  • Allen Robinson, WR
  • DeVonta Smith, WR

Thankfully, there's no great mystery why these teams logged a loss. Outside of Prescott, I'm not overly concerned with anything I saw though the Rams' poor offensive display was somewhat shocking and unexpected. The loss of Prescott impacts CeeDee Lamb as well and this could be an issue for me. We'll see.

Strategy and Trends

Starting in 2021, I began a process of a mindful strategy shift, prioritizing young WR1 players as my core and mid-career veteran receivers as my production anchors with a corresponding RB-light approach as I like to call it. While I haven't updated my numbers-based research to prove out this strategy shift, it has been clear to me that the increased RBBC (running back by committee) usage continues to sap production from the position and when combined with injury potential, makes for a very high beta (risk) in your weekly lineup and long-term build. You just won't see WR1 players play 50% of a team's offensive snaps while rotating with the second player on the positional depth chart. It's the WR3s and WR4s where the greatest rotations take place.

As we saw in week one, we had some ridiculous usage and offensive production which badly impacted some of my/our expectations for the week. It happens every year in week one, but this year seemed much worse than expected. It's not until week three or so, give or take a week, that offensive schemes and chemistry start to develop and offensive units begin to 'click.' This is why we don't overreact to one week of statistical output, but that doesn't mean we don't adjust. As such, I most certainly will be adjusting my advice based on what we saw.

What I can tell you is that my rotation to top receivers already feels much better than my outgoing tried-and-true build methodology. It will take another year or two to complete the augmentation, and running backs are still important, but I feel much better about the shift.

Betting Lines and Props

After looking at the lines, props, etc. for week two, here are my top three plays for the week:

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Touchdowns vs. Chargers

Mahomes owns the first four weeks of a new season and he threw three touchdowns in both contests vs. LAC in 2021. Teams can't focus on Tyreek Hill any longer and Travis Kelce is still getting open. He threw five touchdowns in week one and he's at home. I love the over on Mahomes' prop of 2.5 touchdowns.

Bills -10 vs. Titans

While I'd be happier with -9, I don't think the single point matters enough here. The Bills D handled Matthew Stafford and the Rams and I don't see Tennessee staying in this one. The over on points for this game is 49.5 and if that many points are scored, the Bills are going to have 30+ of them and I don't see Tennessee having 20 of their own. I'm taking the Bills and -10.

Bengals -8 [email protected] Cowboys

The Bengals are in the same league as the Buccaneers who dropped a shaky 19 points on the Cowboys in week one, but Dallas couldn't score more than three points with Dak Prescott under center. Now Cooper Rush takes the helm and the high-octane Bengals should have little trouble moving the ball against a defense who looked better than average, but not good enough to stop Cincinnati who should have receiver Tee Higgins back.  I'm all in on the Bengals wrangling the Cowboys in Big D.  I'm taking Cincinnati and -8.

Lineup Advice Rules & Format

DLF continues to see amazing growth in our membership and each year I wonder how I'm going to keep up with all of your questions while also holding to a level of service and quality you've all come to expect from me. I've been VERY happy with my level of accuracy but, for that to occur, I need your help. Each question can take up to 10 minutes for me to research as I research up to a dozen different variables and trends. I do everything I can to get my answers correct. For that reason, I need you to read the following rules and guidelines to help me maintain efficiency:

  • Please don't ask me to set your entire lineup
  • Put "TNF" as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
  • Please also make sure to tell me who YOU would be starting if not for my advice. It helps me to understand your gut feeling.
  • Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
  • Keep your questions as brief as possible - Story questions add a lot of time
  • I prioritize questions involving the earliest (Thursday, etc.) games first. If I skip over your question, don't worry, I'll be back to it.
  • It's easy to miss responses to my responses in thread. When in doubt, always post a separate new question

Lastly, I work very hard to get my advice correct and I do not mail it in. When I'm wrong, I feel every incorrect answer so, go easy on me! That said, the DLF community has been absolutely fantastic to work with which is why I'm still doing this after so many years.

Have a great week! Have an even better season!

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Lineup Advice, Strategy & Team Tracking – Week Two
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Jamie Horton
17 days ago

Tough week 1 Jeff. My “all in” team got beaten by a rebuilder.

12 Team Superflex – who to start?
WR3 – Amari Cooper or Adam Thielen?
Flex – Aaron Jones, Zeke, Hunt or Edmonds (need to start 2 in the Flex)

I’m leaning Amari and hoping for a better week out of Jones and Zeke

Thanks as always

Jamie Horton
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
15 days ago

Thanks Jeff!

Ashley Moser
17 days ago

Thanks for making this unique resource available for so many seasons. Bespoke perks for members!

If Tee Higgins is out with concussion who do I replace with in a PPR Flex spot: JK dobbins, Duvernay, McKenzie, or Kyle Phillips?
THanks!

Stephen Lee
Reply to  Ashley Moser
16 days ago

those are horrible choices until Dobbins is fit- lets hope Higgins clears the concussion protocol

Ashley Moser
Reply to  Stephen Lee
16 days ago

Not helpful

Daniel Coppock
17 days ago

Hi Jeff,
12 team PPR. Need 2 WR, 2RB and a flex out of these 6.J Conner, J Robinson, R. Penney, JJefferson, M. Pittman and M Thomas.
I’m playing Jefferson and Pittman. Not certain on the flex and RB
Thanks
Daniel

Kris H
16 days ago

TNF – 10 Team ½ point PPR
Need two of three RBs:
S Barkley vs CAR, J Robinson vs IND or even consider C Akers vs ATL. E Mitchell was my other starter.
Need three of four WRs:
Assuming K Allen on TNF is out, my other four options are R Bateman vs MIA, M Evans @ NOS, C Lamb vs CIN, DJ Moore @ NYG. Can’t imagine Allen is active this week or worth playing injured over the others.
Thanks in advance Jeff

Stephen Lee
Reply to  Kris H
16 days ago

I’d bench Bateman out of theWRs and you only have two choices at RB- you can’t trust Cam until we see something different

16 days ago

You mentioned being worried about Lamb. Would you trade him for a 2024 and a 2025 first round pick? My thinking is Dak is made of glass, and as long as Jerry Jones is running the show, the Cowboys are going to be a mess. A penny for your thoughts…

Stephen Lee
Reply to  [email protected]
16 days ago

JMO- but yes….. he didn’t get open against a good secondary

Reply to  Stephen Lee
16 days ago

Thanks for your feedback bud.

Lewis Snow
16 days ago

That list of your look like my roster!!

Ryan Coppinger
16 days ago

Feel the Dak and Lamb investments…

I have Lamb on 2 squads a 10 & 12 team SF leagues, PPR scoring.

Should I flex Lamb or bench for options like ARob, London, Olave, MVS, and Meyers? I’m struggling to see a reliable floor or much of a ceiling with Rush/Grier at QB but he’s an elite talent. Thanks for your thoughts!

Reply to  Ryan Coppinger
16 days ago

Trade Lamb before it is too late.

Ryan Coppinger
Reply to  [email protected]
15 days ago

Yeah but for what? The trade finder results are pretty gross right now. No one is buying him unless they’ve decided their tanking. He’s still top 10-12 at worst value and talent-wise but you’re not going to get even close to that right now. You’re selling at a low.

Reply to  Ryan Coppinger
15 days ago

I hear you, I really do. The trade finder for me is just a guide, and that is it. Sometimes I like to go with my own intuition. Time will dictate if I am selling low. But I just traded Lamb for two 1st round picks, and I have a feeling that his value is only going to depreciate moving forward. But I very well may be wrong. Either way, I like going with my gut. Time will tell.

Ryan Coppinger
Reply to  [email protected]
15 days ago

Yeah, I think both are needed for sure. That’s a pretty good haul, especially if you’re not trying to compete this season. If there was an obvious tier down +pick I could make I think I’d do it to get the production and get out of the situation. But I’m just not seeing that in either of those leagues at the moment unfortunately.

Ryan Coppinger
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
15 days ago

Yeah, I don’t see much option but to hold and go with other players. I think if it were to come to selling it’d be when Dak is returning from injury, there’ll be a value bump due to optimism to about where we were. Thanks, MVS and Meyers were the ones I was really on the fence about starting over Lamb, I think another week or 2 and I’ll feel pretty good about London and Olave and I still feel good about ARob. Really appreciate the feedback Jeff, thank you!

David Marchand
16 days ago

Waddle or Hollywood in 0.5 PPR this week? Expected more from Hollywood week 1 but the ravens D should be a tougher matchup so not thrilled about either. Torn because Hollywood should be the #1 option but Ravens should also scheme away Tyreek so Waddle might feast underneath with Tua getting it out fast.
Conner vs Henderson in FLEX same league. Does that rams usage continue and is Atlanta a targetable matchup despite how Week 1 went? Raiders didn’t get ran over week 1 so Connor basically a TD coinflip again. Maybe lean Hendo if LA can get up early on ATL and then just run it

William Morrison
16 days ago

Appreciate you, Jeff, week 1 was brutal this year.

10 team half-PPR, SF. I’ve got Etienne, Jeff Wilson, Aiyuk, Mooney, and Elijah Moore and am now floundering all of a sudden where I thought my flex depth was amazing a week ago this time. Of those guys which two would you play?

Also, are you still playing Lance over Fields if forced to choose (or, gulp, one of those above skill position guys over both in your SF slot until further notice)?

William Morrison
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
15 days ago

Thanks, Jeff! I’ll stick with Wilson, Moore, and Lance in my SF slot then.

Do you really think Shanahan would bail on Lance mid-season after everything they put into him, no matter how badly his play was going? I feel like they must believe that their investment deserves at least a full season to play out, no?

Peter Paguaga
16 days ago

TNF

Jeff, thank you as always for the help. Jeudy as flex was key last week!

PPR

RB2 Etienne or CEH?

i went Etienne last week, CEH obviously had 2 TDs and looked great. Etienne looked solid as well

I start Kelce and Mahomes as well. Would that be too many chiefs to roll?

Thanks as always!

Robert Woolmer
16 days ago

Hi Jeff.
Thanks for doing this again you saved me from ARob last week!
10 Team half PPR.
Flex – Thomas, Henderson or Zeke?
Order above is way I’m leaning. Just don’t trust Rams backfield and worried Zeke struggles with Rush at QB.
Appreciate your advice as always. Thank you.
Rob

Robert Woolmer
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
16 days ago

Ha ha unlucky. Thanks Jeff appreciate it.

Matthew Crawford
16 days ago

TNF
Weak at TE. I can get G. Everret, Albert Okwuegbunam, or Taysom Hill. Thoughts for this week and for the season. Standard scoring. Thanks for any advice. Have Cole Kmet

Matthew Crawford
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
15 days ago

Thanks Jeff

Ed Sulek
16 days ago

Appreciate the help Jeff. Can you please advise which 4 WRs to start from the below in a .5 PPR league?
Chase, Sutton, Marquise Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Diontae Johnson, Juju, Higgins (if he plays), Claypool, Dotson, Skyy Moore.

Eastman Tiu
16 days ago

**TNF alert!

Hi Jeff!

I remembered TNF this time. As usual, you have a lot to do, so let’s get to it.

0.5 PPR. Small bonus for 100 yds and long TDs.

Need one:
RB Henderson vs falcons
RB Singletary vs titans
WR Theilen at Eagles
WR Claypool vs Pats
WR Palmer at Chiefs

I’m leaning Palmer if Allen is actually out. Big shootout potential.

If not Palmer, it’s likely between Theilen or Henderson. Henderson got great usage but then maybe McVay tries to show everyone how smart he is by giving work to Akers after everyone has abandoned ship on him.

Thanks for your time!
ET

Josh Keller
16 days ago

Good morning Jeff,
12 team PPR. I need one for the flex. Neither game last week was overwhelming for my options, but they got a good workload.
DK or Jacobs
Thanks in advance!

Raynall21
16 days ago

3 Questions for 3 different leagues….all PPR formats
1) Pick 1 out of Edmonds, Bateman, London, Eli Moore, Dotson (leaning Edmounds)
2) Goedert or Friermuth?
3) Pick 1 out of Zeke, Allen Robinson, Bateman, London (leaning Zeke but that offense has me on tilt)

16 days ago

Hey Jeff, 10 team PPR non-super flex. Should I roll with Najee Harris, or am I better off with:
Kareem Hunt, Jeff Wilson, Josh Jacobs, Khalil Herbert, or Rex Burkhead?

16 days ago

Hey there Jeff, I decided to trade Lamb despite your advice. I am in a 10 team, PPR, non-super flex league. So, who do you like in his flex spot this week? My options are Josh Jacobs, Jeff Wilson, Rex Burkhead, Tee Higgins, Hunt, C. Samuel, or Herbert. What say you, sir?

Reply to  [email protected]
16 days ago

sorry I repeated the same scenario

16 days ago

Last question. Since I traded CeeDee Lamb, should I start Josh Jacobs or Tee Higgins in my flex?

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
15 days ago

Thanks Jeff. You rock!

Mitchell Golden
16 days ago

Hey Jeff, happy 2022 season!
Need to pick a TE: Noah Fant, Evan Engram, or take a flyer on shiny new waiver pickup OJ Howard?

Mitchell Golden
Reply to  Mitchell Golden
16 days ago

(This is a 12 team half-PPR league)

nick1219
16 days ago

Hey Jeff,
Going up against my biggest competition for the title this year in week 2. 12 team Sflex 0.5ppr (2rb/3wr/1flex):

  • 2nd QB spot: choose one between Tua & Brissett
  • Pick 3 of the following (Diggs is locked in): Sutton, McLaurin, DK, Woods, Devonta Smith, Pollard

Thanks as always for your time!

nick1219
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
16 days ago

Thanks for the quick reply as always! So you think that fits the bill of a lineup with the most upside for the week as well? Going to need a lot of points to take down my opponent this week as he has Kupp, Chase, Evans, Kyler, Rodgers, Chubb among others. Appreciate your time my friend.

Jason Hewitt
16 days ago

16 team ppr. Start 1-2 RB 3-4 WR/TE
Currently set to start Swift, Tyreek Hill, Gabe Davis, Kupp and R Anderson.
Other options Zeke, Pollard, Goedert, D Mooney, Bateman, C Godwin and G Wilson.
Thinking about Mooney over Anderson

Dale Norwood
16 days ago

TNF.
PPR, need two from CEH, AJ Dillon or Al Robinson. Leaning the RBs.

Mike Wendland
15 days ago

Hi Jeff, I need a little help deciding on my 2 PPR (no TEP) Flex spots out of the following options, some of them are playing tonight:
League 1: one of Olave (vs TB) or Josh Palmer (@KC), also available: Singletary (vs TEN), McKenzie (vs TEN)
League 2: one of Penny (@SF), Josh Palmer (@KC), Goedert (vs MIN), Curtis Samuel (@DET)
Thank you!

Mike Wendland
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
15 days ago

Thank you for the quick response. I’ll probably line up Palmer in the Flex in all of my 3 leagues then 🙂

Mike Wendland
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
13 days ago

Sure, don’t know what happened there (can’t watch THU games due to time zone). But looking back at his week 1 efficiency, I eventually decided to only start him in the one league where I didn’t have another option. I’m sure he’ll be fine going forward though.

15 days ago

10 team, non superflex, Burrow or Cousins? Burrow’s 4 INT’s are freaking me out a bit.

Brian Sodaro
15 days ago

Hey Jeff! Full PPR, need one RB: T. Etienne, J. Robinson or R. Penny. Need one TE: L. Thomas, H. Hurst or N. Fant. Thanks!

Brian Sodaro
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
15 days ago

Thanks Jeff! I was pretty torn on Penny vs. Etienne, so this is super helpful. Appreciate you!

George Holmes
15 days ago

TNF- PPR League’s
League 1: Start Juju or Jeudy, I went with Juju week 1 but leaning toward benching him for Jeudy this week. I also have Darrell Henderson that could be a flex option but still think it’s between Juju or Jeudy.
League 2: PPR
WR: Juju or Landry
Flex: Dameon Pierce, Darrell Henderson, Jeff Wilson Jr or one of the WRs above.
Thanks for the help!

Ryan Coppinger
15 days ago

12 team SF. PPR scoring. Start Dawson Knox, Irv Smith or Taysom Hill at TE? Thanks in advance Jeff!

schulteblake15
15 days ago

TNF!!!
Start 2 of 3. Josh Palmer, Michael Carter, Rashod Bateman. Thanks!

Dale Norwood
15 days ago

TNF
PPR. I have Kamara and Swift in my lineup now. Swift hasn’t practiced all week. Should I plug CEH in for Swift on a gamble Swift doesn’t play?

Dale Norwood
Reply to  Dale Norwood
15 days ago

Also, I have AJ Dillon on my bench that I can plug in if I don’t play CEH and Swift doesn’t play

Brandon Calandra
15 days ago

12 team ppr. For WR Eli Moore or Dotson? For RB Rex Burkhead or Stevenson? Which RB WR combo you like best this week?

Brandon Calandra
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
14 days ago

Thanks for the advice. Much appreciated

Glen Potter
14 days ago

Hey Jeff,
Thanks for all you do.
12 team PPR
Flex – Evans or Dillon
Evans is ranked in the top 12 in all the WR rankings I have seen but he never does well against Lattimore and the Saints. Dillon looks really good after one week. Leaning Dillon.

14 days ago

Jeff, you are the best. Your weekly advice is half the reason I subscribe to DLF. 10 team, ppr, non-superflex. Do I start Josh Jacobs, or Courtland Sutton in my flex spot?

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
13 days ago

Many thanks. Good luck in your leagues this week?

wretch
14 days ago

Waddle or Higgins as WR3.
I’m overthinking Higgins concussion + can see the Bengals being in firm control of this by halftime and running Mixon extensively (who I also have starting).
Thanks!

Last edited 14 days ago by wretch
Steve Reyland
14 days ago

Hello Jeff,
Standard scoring 1pt PPR.
Start two of the following.
Courtland Sutton, Darrel Henderson, James Robinson.
I planned on starting Sutton & Robinson. Henderson has a great matchup though.
My problem with Henderson is Akers. We really don’t know what is going on there. Robinson performed much better than most expected last week and Sutton wasn’t a big part of the offense last week.
Thanks,
Steve

mrossi212
13 days ago

1 point PPR league….
Breece Hall vs. Cleveland or Jamaal Williams vs. Washington??

Thane Obijeski
13 days ago

Hey Jeff!
1 pt PPR. I need 6 from below and at least 3 must be WRs:
AJ Dillon, Kareem Hunt, James Robinson, Jeff Wilson, Diggs, Kupp, DJ Moore, CD Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Donovan Peoples Jones. Help Please!!
Cheers

NatiTime
13 days ago

What do you use to “track” your team?

Patrick Hanley
13 days ago

Hey Jeff, thanks for all your work!

One Q this week at RB. I’m starting A Jones @ RB1, need 1 of these for my RB2 (Standard)

* D Swift
* AJ Dillon
* M Sanders

Obviously will start Swift if he goes, but if he’s out, who do you like?

Much gratitude!

Ed Sulek
13 days ago

Been going back and forth on which TE to start in a .5 ppr league. Hockenson or Freiermuth? Thanks in advance Jeff.

mike whitaker
13 days ago

Standard Scoring/ Non PPR

QB: Cousins or Wentz (leaning Cousins)
WR T Higgins or DK Metcalf (leaning Higgins)

Thanks!

Paul Wright
13 days ago

1/2 point ppr
D Knox,Taysom Hill, M Gesick,i Thinking Hill !!
IDP Tremaine Edmunds or Devin Lloyd
Gabe Davis don’t go Isaiah Mckenzie or Dotson
Thanks Jeff

Stephen Atkinson
12 days ago

Hi Kemo,
PPR
1) Need a #2 RB from Stevenson, Cook (ouch), or Jeff Wilson.
2) Two flex from Jeudy, Mooney, Aiyuk, and Lazard (if active).

3) Would you trust Duvernay (after Claypool and Lockett) as your #3 WR if your other choices were Sammy W., Collins, Lazard, and Kyle Philips (if healthy)?
4) Kamara is iffy. I need a possible #2 from Akers, Dameon Pierce, and Walker in his first game.
Thx.

Stephen Atkinson
12 days ago

Here’s a toughie –

1) With Gabe Davis a late injury question mark on a Monday niter, do you take the risk that he plays or put in your best guess from Duvernay, Mooney, Kyle Philips (again if healthy) , or even Akers? My starting WR’s are Davante and MT if that helps…

Todd Gurley
12 days ago

Hello!
Thanks for your help as always! I just have one simple question today, I hope I’m not too late!
12 team .5 PPR
Start 1 of these 3 RBS:
Tony Pollard vs CIN
Rhamondre Stevenson @ PIT
Rex Burkhead @ DEN

I know… doesn’t look good. I’m leaning pollard because I’m already starting D. Harris too, lol! Thanks for any insight!
-Todd

mattryan1975
12 days ago

PPR

Need two from Breece Hall, Rex burkhead, Drake London, Curtis Samuel, Isaiah McKennzie.

Already starting McClauren.

Thanks

Stephen Atkinson
12 days ago

Thx for the previous comments.
PPR
Starting CEH and Jacobs for my RB’s and Kupp, Waddle, and Hollywood for WR’s. Need two flex from JRob, Penny, and Jeff Wilson. Also have Renfrow who didn’t do much last week. Wilson should start leaving timeshares for both JRob and Penny. Your best guess?
On my Kamara question earlier – I agree with Pierce but also have a trade offer for Ingram this morning for my 2023 3rd which is a bit high for a one or two week rental. Any thoughts?
Good luck today.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Stephen Atkinson
12 days ago

Turned down Ingram.

Stephen Atkinson
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
12 days ago

That’s what I penciled in so thx for the reply. Split on Duvernay in the two other games with Akers. Will put in Philips for Davis on MNF if he’s out.

Brad Fleck
7 days ago

10 team ppr start in Flex , A Dillon, JuJu, T Burks or D Henderson?

Thanks

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